Recent regional military activity tied to the Iran conflict has driven repeated short-notice Israeli airspace closures and reopenings between February and July 2026, including responses to Iranian missile and drone attacks after US and Israeli strikes. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz in July prompted EASA risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR, yet the airspace has stayed open through mid-August following official assessments by Israeli transport authorities. Temporary disruptions, such as the June interception of a Yemen-origin missile, illustrate how incoming threats or escalations can trigger immediate closures for safety. As of August 19, 2026, trader consensus assigns low near-term probabilities amid the current open status, reflecting the balance between persistent volatility from Iran, Hezbollah, and proxy actions versus routine operations at Ben Gurion Airport. Any fresh missile activity, diplomatic breakdown, or expanded strikes could rapidly shift these odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$27,263,577 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
August 31
5%
September 30
12%
$27,263,577 Vol.
August 31
$1,231,696 Vol.
5%
September 30
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent regional military activity tied to the Iran conflict has driven repeated short-notice Israeli airspace closures and reopenings between February and July 2026, including responses to Iranian missile and drone attacks after US and Israeli strikes. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz in July prompted EASA risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR, yet the airspace has stayed open through mid-August following official assessments by Israeli transport authorities. Temporary disruptions, such as the June interception of a Yemen-origin missile, illustrate how incoming threats or escalations can trigger immediate closures for safety. As of August 19, 2026, trader consensus assigns low near-term probabilities amid the current open status, reflecting the balance between persistent volatility from Iran, Hezbollah, and proxy actions versus routine operations at Ben Gurion Airport. Any fresh missile activity, diplomatic breakdown, or expanded strikes could rapidly shift these odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,263,577Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent regional military activity tied to the Iran conflict has driven repeated short-notice Israeli airspace closures and reopenings between February and July 2026, including responses to Iranian missile and drone attacks after US and Israeli strikes. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz in July prompted EASA risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR, yet the airspace has stayed open through mid-August following official assessments by Israeli transport authorities. Temporary disruptions, such as the June interception of a Yemen-origin missile, illustrate how incoming threats or escalations can trigger immediate closures for safety. As of August 19, 2026, trader consensus assigns low near-term probabilities amid the current open status, reflecting the balance between persistent volatility from Iran, Hezbollah, and proxy actions versus routine operations at Ben Gurion Airport. Any fresh missile activity, diplomatic breakdown, or expanded strikes could rapidly shift these odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,263,577Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent regional military activity tied to the Iran conflict has driven repeated short-notice Israeli airspace closures and reopenings between February and July 2026, including responses to Iranian missile and drone attacks after US and Israeli strikes. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz in July prompted EASA risk advisories for the Tel Aviv FIR, yet the airspace has stayed open through mid-August following official assessments by Israeli transport authorities. Temporary disruptions, such as the June interception of a Yemen-origin missile, illustrate how incoming threats or escalations can trigger immediate closures for safety. As of August 19, 2026, trader consensus assigns low near-term probabilities amid the current open status, reflecting the balance between persistent volatility from Iran, Hezbollah, and proxy actions versus routine operations at Ben Gurion Airport. Any fresh missile activity, diplomatic breakdown, or expanded strikes could rapidly shift these odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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