Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and Hezbollah continue to shape expectations around potential Israeli airspace restrictions, with multiple temporary closures occurring earlier in 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliations. The most recent major development was the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire, which triggered renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and prompted EASA to reissue cautions for operators in the Tel Aviv FIR. Israeli airspace has since reopened and remains operational, though volatile conditions linked to ongoing Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon and Houthi threats from Yemen sustain periodic risk assessments by aviation authorities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, proxy escalations, and any official warnings from Israel's Transportation Ministry or Airports Authority, as these have historically preceded short-notice closures to mitigate inbound threats. Scheduled events such as further diplomatic talks or reported strike preparations could shift probabilities before year-end.
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Jul 15, 2026
August 31
4%
$27,256,397 Vol.
August 31
$1,224,516 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and Hezbollah continue to shape expectations around potential Israeli airspace restrictions, with multiple temporary closures occurring earlier in 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliations. The most recent major development was the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire, which triggered renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and prompted EASA to reissue cautions for operators in the Tel Aviv FIR. Israeli airspace has since reopened and remains operational, though volatile conditions linked to ongoing Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon and Houthi threats from Yemen sustain periodic risk assessments by aviation authorities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, proxy escalations, and any official warnings from Israel's Transportation Ministry or Airports Authority, as these have historically preceded short-notice closures to mitigate inbound threats. Scheduled events such as further diplomatic talks or reported strike preparations could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$27,256,397Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and Hezbollah continue to shape expectations around potential Israeli airspace restrictions, with multiple temporary closures occurring earlier in 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliations. The most recent major development was the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire, which triggered renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and prompted EASA to reissue cautions for operators in the Tel Aviv FIR. Israeli airspace has since reopened and remains operational, though volatile conditions linked to ongoing Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon and Houthi threats from Yemen sustain periodic risk assessments by aviation authorities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, proxy escalations, and any official warnings from Israel's Transportation Ministry or Airports Authority, as these have historically preceded short-notice closures to mitigate inbound threats. Scheduled events such as further diplomatic talks or reported strike preparations could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,256,397Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and Hezbollah continue to shape expectations around potential Israeli airspace restrictions, with multiple temporary closures occurring earlier in 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent missile and drone retaliations. The most recent major development was the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire, which triggered renewed military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and prompted EASA to reissue cautions for operators in the Tel Aviv FIR. Israeli airspace has since reopened and remains operational, though volatile conditions linked to ongoing Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon and Houthi threats from Yemen sustain periodic risk assessments by aviation authorities. Traders monitor diplomatic signals, proxy escalations, and any official warnings from Israel's Transportation Ministry or Airports Authority, as these have historically preceded short-notice closures to mitigate inbound threats. Scheduled events such as further diplomatic talks or reported strike preparations could shift probabilities before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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