Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—the 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with native vision and a 1M-token context window—has focused trader attention on a potential K4 successor, especially after August reporting that the company is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for a significantly larger model. Moonshot’s rapid cadence (K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, K3 in July) and ongoing enterprise initiatives create expectations of continued iteration, yet no official K4 announcement, model card, or release window exists as of mid-September 2026. Traders are weighing typical large-model development timelines and U.S.-China compute constraints against the lab’s demonstrated ability to ship frontier-scale open-weight releases quickly. Key near-term catalysts include further hardware access updates or developer conference signals that could shift implied probabilities for 2026 resolution dates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$17,814 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
3%
December 31, 2026
6%
$17,814 Vol.
October 31, 2026
$9,489 Vol.
3%
December 31, 2026
$8,325 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—the 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with native vision and a 1M-token context window—has focused trader attention on a potential K4 successor, especially after August reporting that the company is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for a significantly larger model. Moonshot’s rapid cadence (K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, K3 in July) and ongoing enterprise initiatives create expectations of continued iteration, yet no official K4 announcement, model card, or release window exists as of mid-September 2026. Traders are weighing typical large-model development timelines and U.S.-China compute constraints against the lab’s demonstrated ability to ship frontier-scale open-weight releases quickly. Key near-term catalysts include further hardware access updates or developer conference signals that could shift implied probabilities for 2026 resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$17,814Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—the 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with native vision and a 1M-token context window—has focused trader attention on a potential K4 successor, especially after August reporting that the company is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for a significantly larger model. Moonshot’s rapid cadence (K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, K3 in July) and ongoing enterprise initiatives create expectations of continued iteration, yet no official K4 announcement, model card, or release window exists as of mid-September 2026. Traders are weighing typical large-model development timelines and U.S.-China compute constraints against the lab’s demonstrated ability to ship frontier-scale open-weight releases quickly. Key near-term catalysts include further hardware access updates or developer conference signals that could shift implied probabilities for 2026 resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,814Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of Kimi K3—the 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with native vision and a 1M-token context window—has focused trader attention on a potential K4 successor, especially after August reporting that the company is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell GPUs for a significantly larger model. Moonshot’s rapid cadence (K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, K3 in July) and ongoing enterprise initiatives create expectations of continued iteration, yet no official K4 announcement, model card, or release window exists as of mid-September 2026. Traders are weighing typical large-model development timelines and U.S.-China compute constraints against the lab’s demonstrated ability to ship frontier-scale open-weight releases quickly. Key near-term catalysts include further hardware access updates or developer conference signals that could shift implied probabilities for 2026 resolution dates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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