Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence for the Kimi series—major updates roughly every two to three months through mid-2026—sets expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16 launch of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context, native vision, and 104B active parameters. Trader sentiment reflects the company’s ongoing pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a meaningfully larger successor, alongside competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol and peer Chinese labs. No official K4 announcement or timeline has surfaced as of early September, leaving resolution dependent on hardware scaling, internal benchmarks, and any surprise reveal at upcoming developer or industry events.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$17,518 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
3%
December 31, 2026
16%
$17,518 Vol.
October 31, 2026
$9,489 Vol.
3%
December 31, 2026
$8,030 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence for the Kimi series—major updates roughly every two to three months through mid-2026—sets expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16 launch of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context, native vision, and 104B active parameters. Trader sentiment reflects the company’s ongoing pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a meaningfully larger successor, alongside competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol and peer Chinese labs. No official K4 announcement or timeline has surfaced as of early September, leaving resolution dependent on hardware scaling, internal benchmarks, and any surprise reveal at upcoming developer or industry events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$17,518Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence for the Kimi series—major updates roughly every two to three months through mid-2026—sets expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16 launch of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context, native vision, and 104B active parameters. Trader sentiment reflects the company’s ongoing pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a meaningfully larger successor, alongside competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol and peer Chinese labs. No official K4 announcement or timeline has surfaced as of early September, leaving resolution dependent on hardware scaling, internal benchmarks, and any surprise reveal at upcoming developer or industry events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,518Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s rapid release cadence for the Kimi series—major updates roughly every two to three months through mid-2026—sets expectations for Kimi K4 following the July 16 launch of Kimi K3, its 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE flagship with 1M-token context, native vision, and 104B active parameters. Trader sentiment reflects the company’s ongoing pursuit of additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a meaningfully larger successor, alongside competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol and peer Chinese labs. No official K4 announcement or timeline has surfaced as of early September, leaving resolution dependent on hardware scaling, internal benchmarks, and any surprise reveal at upcoming developer or industry events.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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