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Politik·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

icon for Next Premier of Victoria
Politik·Australia

Next Premier of Victoria

Jess Wilson 64%

Ben Carroll 20%

Warren Pickering 8%

Jacinta Allan 4.3%

Polymarket
BARU

$10,188 Vol.

Jess Wilson 64%

Ben Carroll 20%

Warren Pickering 8%

Jacinta Allan 4.3%

Polymarket
BARU

$10,188 Vol.

icon for Jess Wilson

Jess Wilson

$899 Vol.

64%

icon for Ben Carroll

Ben Carroll

$623 Vol.

20%

icon for Warren Pickering

Warren Pickering

$978 Vol.

8%

icon for Jacinta Allan

Jacinta Allan

$192 Vol.

4%

icon for Emma Kealy

Emma Kealy

$1,028 Vol.

4%

icon for Sonya Kilkenny

Sonya Kilkenny

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for Steve Dimopoulos

Steve Dimopoulos

$100 Vol.

4%

icon for David Southwick

David Southwick

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Gabrielle Williams

Gabrielle Williams

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Brad Battin

Brad Battin

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for Danny O'Brien

Danny O'Brien

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jaclyn Symes

Jaclyn Symes

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ellen Sandell

Ellen Sandell

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sam Groth

Sam Groth

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

icon for James Newbury

James Newbury

$1,028 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads the Victorian Liberal-National Coalition as Opposition Leader ahead of the November 28 state election, with recent DemosAU polling showing her party ahead on a 55-45 two-party preferred basis and her preferred premier rating at 43-34 against incumbent Ben Carroll. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Carroll has not reversed voter dissatisfaction tied to cost-of-living pressures, crime rates, and project delays, leaving the Coalition positioned for a likely change of government. Traders price Wilson highest because her party holds the clearest path to forming government under Australia’s preferential voting system, while Carroll and other Labor figures trail amid the Coalition’s sustained polling edge and Wilson’s policy releases on bail reform and public sector restraint.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,188
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 28, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Jess Wilson leads the Victorian Liberal-National Coalition as Opposition Leader ahead of the November 28 state election, with recent DemosAU polling showing her party ahead on a 55-45 two-party preferred basis and her preferred premier rating at 43-34 against incumbent Ben Carroll. Labor’s July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Carroll has not reversed voter dissatisfaction tied to cost-of-living pressures, crime rates, and project delays, leaving the Coalition positioned for a likely change of government. Traders price Wilson highest because her party holds the clearest path to forming government under Australia’s preferential voting system, while Carroll and other Labor figures trail amid the Coalition’s sustained polling edge and Wilson’s policy releases on bail reform and public sector restraint.

The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,188
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 28, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://www.vic.gov.au/premier

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Terkait

icon for Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?

77%
icon for Will Marianne Alto win the 2026 Victoria mayoral election?

Will Marianne Alto win the 2026 Victoria mayoral election?

91%
icon for Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?

73%

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Next Premier of Victoria" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 15 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Jess Wilson" di 64%, diikuti oleh "Ben Carroll" di 20%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 64¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 64% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Next Premier of Victoria" telah menghasilkan $10.2K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Aug 27, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Next Premier of Victoria," jelajahi 15 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Next Premier of Victoria" adalah "Jess Wilson" di 64%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 64% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Ben Carroll" di 20%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Next Premier of Victoria" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.