Recent polling for the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election shows a fragmented primary vote, with the Liberal–National Coalition, Labor, and One Nation clustered in the mid-20s to low-30s percent range, while the Greens hold steady near 12–15 percent. Labor’s position as incumbent has weakened amid dissatisfaction with the prior government, though the July 2026 leadership transition to Ben Carroll has stabilized its support without producing a clear rebound. One Nation’s sustained rise has occasionally placed it ahead of Labor on primaries in multiple surveys, heightening uncertainty over final seat tallies once preferences are distributed under Australia’s preferential system. This three-way contest, combined with variable “other” and independent flows, keeps implied probabilities for third place tightly grouped among the major contenders, with separation likely to emerge only from late swings or stronger preference data in the final weeks.