Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election under the MMP system shows Labour and National holding the top two spots, with New Zealand First consistently placing third or very close behind in rolling averages from firms including Talbot Mills, Roy Morgan, and Taxpayers’ Union-Curia. NZ First’s coalition role and Winston Peters’ established voter base have kept its support stable near 8–12 percent despite fluctuations. The Green Party’s recent surge to around 13 percent in the latest Talbot Mills survey has narrowed the gap for third but has not yet displaced NZ First in most aggregates. Smaller parties such as ACT, Labour’s trailing position in some surveys, and Te Pāti Māori remain well below the levels needed to challenge for third place. Traders appear to price NZ First’s structural consistency and historical precedent more heavily than short-term Green momentum.