Recent polling averages place National and Labour in a tight contest for first and second under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election, leaving New Zealand First and the Green Party as the clearest contenders for third. Minor-party fragmentation has intensified, with support for the two major parties near historic lows around 30 percent each. New Zealand First’s September 10 unveiling of immigration caps, birthright citizenship changes, and welfare restrictions for new residents provided a fresh policy focus that could consolidate its base. Greens have shown surges in multiple surveys, often edging above 11 percent, while ACT hovers near 8-10 percent and the Opportunities Party approaches the 5 percent threshold. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns closely with the latest aggregates projecting seats and vote shares.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNew Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand First Party 55%
Green Party 41%
ACT New Zealand 3.8%
National Party 3.5%
$15,189 Vol.
$15,189 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
New Zealand First Party
55%
Green Party
41%
ACT New Zealand
4%
National Party
4%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party
<1%
New Zealand First Party 55%
Green Party 41%
ACT New Zealand 3.8%
National Party 3.5%
$15,189 Vol.
$15,189 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
New Zealand First Party
$5,447 Vol.
55%
Green Party
$6,195 Vol.
41%
ACT New Zealand
$862 Vol.
4%
National Party
$564 Vol.
4%
Te Pāti Māori
$915 Vol.
<1%
Labour Party
$1,206 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National and Labour in a tight contest for first and second under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election, leaving New Zealand First and the Green Party as the clearest contenders for third. Minor-party fragmentation has intensified, with support for the two major parties near historic lows around 30 percent each. New Zealand First’s September 10 unveiling of immigration caps, birthright citizenship changes, and welfare restrictions for new residents provided a fresh policy focus that could consolidate its base. Greens have shown surges in multiple surveys, often edging above 11 percent, while ACT hovers near 8-10 percent and the Opportunities Party approaches the 5 percent threshold. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns closely with the latest aggregates projecting seats and vote shares.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$15,189Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place National and Labour in a tight contest for first and second under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election, leaving New Zealand First and the Green Party as the clearest contenders for third. Minor-party fragmentation has intensified, with support for the two major parties near historic lows around 30 percent each. New Zealand First’s September 10 unveiling of immigration caps, birthright citizenship changes, and welfare restrictions for new residents provided a fresh policy focus that could consolidate its base. Greens have shown surges in multiple surveys, often edging above 11 percent, while ACT hovers near 8-10 percent and the Opportunities Party approaches the 5 percent threshold. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns closely with the latest aggregates projecting seats and vote shares.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$15,189Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place National and Labour in a tight contest for first and second under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election, leaving New Zealand First and the Green Party as the clearest contenders for third. Minor-party fragmentation has intensified, with support for the two major parties near historic lows around 30 percent each. New Zealand First’s September 10 unveiling of immigration caps, birthright citizenship changes, and welfare restrictions for new residents provided a fresh policy focus that could consolidate its base. Greens have shown surges in multiple surveys, often edging above 11 percent, while ACT hovers near 8-10 percent and the Opportunities Party approaches the 5 percent threshold. Trader consensus on these probabilities aligns closely with the latest aggregates projecting seats and vote shares.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
37%
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