Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election uses nationwide proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold, meaning only parties clearing that bar secure seats in the 120-member legislature. Recent polling averages show the Netanyahu-aligned bloc near 51 seats and the main opposition near 52, with Arab lists around 12 and several small parties hovering near the threshold. Key variables include Central Elections Committee rulings on disqualification petitions targeting Ra'am, the Joint List, and certain candidates—some already advanced and subject to Supreme Court review by early October—plus surplus-vote pacts finalized by mid-October that can shift marginal seats. Voter turnout patterns, especially in Arab communities, and whether fringe right-wing or centrist lists clear the bar will determine the final distribution of seats entering coalition talks.