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Politik·Brasil

Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2

icon for Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2
Politik·Brasil

Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2

Flávio Bolsonaro 83%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 9.3%

Renan Santos 7.1%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$4,672,351 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 83%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 9.3%

Renan Santos 7.1%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$4,672,351 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$260,677 Vol.

83%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$249,656 Vol.

9%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,106,193 Vol.

7%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$355,035 Vol.

1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$302,660 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$703,205 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$135,046 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$130,231 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$105,726 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$102,665 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$63,521 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$199,059 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$674,411 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$155,418 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$72,371 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$20,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$35,504 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming implied probability for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent national polls from Quaest, PoderData, and Nexus consistently place the Liberal Party senator behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva while far ahead of all other declared candidates. Jair Bolsonaro’s political ineligibility and imprisonment have consolidated right-wing support behind his son, the party’s official nominee, despite earlier 2026 controversies over recorded conversations and a temporary family dispute that have since been publicly resolved. Lower-polling contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in single digits or below, reflecting limited national reach and the absence of broader coalition backing. Lula’s steady leads in first-round surveys, aided by targeted debt-relief and fuel-price measures, further anchor trader expectations that the race will narrow to the two frontrunners entering the runoff window.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,672,351
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds an overwhelming implied probability for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent national polls from Quaest, PoderData, and Nexus consistently place the Liberal Party senator behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva while far ahead of all other declared candidates. Jair Bolsonaro’s political ineligibility and imprisonment have consolidated right-wing support behind his son, the party’s official nominee, despite earlier 2026 controversies over recorded conversations and a temporary family dispute that have since been publicly resolved. Lower-polling contenders such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema remain in single digits or below, reflecting limited national reach and the absence of broader coalition backing. Lula’s steady leads in first-round surveys, aided by targeted debt-relief and fuel-price measures, further anchor trader expectations that the race will narrow to the two frontrunners entering the runoff window.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$4,672,351
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Terkait

icon for Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

58%
icon for Apakah Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?

Apakah Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026?

64%
Ya
icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

13%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 17 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 83%, diikuti oleh "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 9%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 83¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 83% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" telah menghasilkan $4.7 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 11, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2," jelajahi 17 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 83%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 83% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 9%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.