Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a dominant position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polls against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Quaest in July and early August show Freitas at 41–53% in first-round scenarios, well ahead of Haddad’s 26–35%, with other names such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França registering negligible support. His reelection bid, confirmed after earlier speculation about a presidential run, benefits from incumbency, party alliances, and a fragmented opposition. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects these polling trends and structural advantages. A late scandal, sharp economic downturn, or unexpected consolidation behind a single rival could still narrow the gap before the first-round vote on October 4.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$283,939 Vol.
$283,939 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 96.5%
Fernando Haddad 3.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$283,939 Vol.
$283,939 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$127,023 Vol.
97%
Fernando Haddad
$47,715 Vol.
3%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 Vol.
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,829 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a dominant position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polls against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Quaest in July and early August show Freitas at 41–53% in first-round scenarios, well ahead of Haddad’s 26–35%, with other names such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França registering negligible support. His reelection bid, confirmed after earlier speculation about a presidential run, benefits from incumbency, party alliances, and a fragmented opposition. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects these polling trends and structural advantages. A late scandal, sharp economic downturn, or unexpected consolidation behind a single rival could still narrow the gap before the first-round vote on October 4.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$283,939Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a dominant position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polls against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Quaest in July and early August show Freitas at 41–53% in first-round scenarios, well ahead of Haddad’s 26–35%, with other names such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França registering negligible support. His reelection bid, confirmed after earlier speculation about a presidential run, benefits from incumbency, party alliances, and a fragmented opposition. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects these polling trends and structural advantages. A late scandal, sharp economic downturn, or unexpected consolidation behind a single rival could still narrow the gap before the first-round vote on October 4.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$283,939Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republicanos governor, holds a dominant position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polls against main challenger Fernando Haddad of the PT. Surveys from Ideia, Vox Brasil, Paraná Pesquisas, and Quaest in July and early August show Freitas at 41–53% in first-round scenarios, well ahead of Haddad’s 26–35%, with other names such as Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França registering negligible support. His reelection bid, confirmed after earlier speculation about a presidential run, benefits from incumbency, party alliances, and a fragmented opposition. Trader consensus at 96.5% reflects these polling trends and structural advantages. A late scandal, sharp economic downturn, or unexpected consolidation behind a single rival could still narrow the gap before the first-round vote on October 4.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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