Market-implied odds for Brazil's 2026 IPCA annual inflation cluster around the 5.00-5.49% range at 47%, reflecting the latest Focus survey median of 5.02% held steady through mid-August alongside the central bank's reference scenario projection of 5.1%. Recent July IPCA data at 4.44% year-over-year returned within the 1.5-4.5% tolerance band around the 3% target, supported by easing food, transport, and services components, while the August IPCA-15 preview showed a -0.40% month-over-month decline. Persistent upside risks from de-anchored longer-term expectations, fiscal stimulus, and commodity pass-through have limited further downside revisions, even as the Copom's calibration cycle lowered the Selic to 14.00% with markets pricing one additional 25 basis point cut by year-end. Slower 1.95% GDP growth forecasts reinforce the contained path within the leading bin.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5.00-5.49% 47.0%
4.50-4.99% 27.7%
5.50-5.99% 22.4%
4.00-4.49% 3.1%
$100,222 Vol.
$100,222 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
<1%
3.50-3.99%
<1%
4.00-4.49%
3%
4.50-4.99%
28%
5.00-5.49%
47%
5.50-5.99%
22%
6.00-6.49%
1%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
<1%
5.00-5.49% 47.0%
4.50-4.99% 27.7%
5.50-5.99% 22.4%
4.00-4.49% 3.1%
$100,222 Vol.
$100,222 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
$5,844 Vol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$5,904 Vol.
<1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,307 Vol.
<1%
4.00-4.49%
$14,405 Vol.
3%
4.50-4.99%
$16,917 Vol.
28%
5.00-5.49%
$14,894 Vol.
47%
5.50-5.99%
$10,450 Vol.
22%
6.00-6.49%
$6,785 Vol.
1%
6.50-6.99%
$6,801 Vol.
<1%
7.00%+
$4,917 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket-implied odds for Brazil's 2026 IPCA annual inflation cluster around the 5.00-5.49% range at 47%, reflecting the latest Focus survey median of 5.02% held steady through mid-August alongside the central bank's reference scenario projection of 5.1%. Recent July IPCA data at 4.44% year-over-year returned within the 1.5-4.5% tolerance band around the 3% target, supported by easing food, transport, and services components, while the August IPCA-15 preview showed a -0.40% month-over-month decline. Persistent upside risks from de-anchored longer-term expectations, fiscal stimulus, and commodity pass-through have limited further downside revisions, even as the Copom's calibration cycle lowered the Selic to 14.00% with markets pricing one additional 25 basis point cut by year-end. Slower 1.95% GDP growth forecasts reinforce the contained path within the leading bin.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$100,222Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket-implied odds for Brazil's 2026 IPCA annual inflation cluster around the 5.00-5.49% range at 47%, reflecting the latest Focus survey median of 5.02% held steady through mid-August alongside the central bank's reference scenario projection of 5.1%. Recent July IPCA data at 4.44% year-over-year returned within the 1.5-4.5% tolerance band around the 3% target, supported by easing food, transport, and services components, while the August IPCA-15 preview showed a -0.40% month-over-month decline. Persistent upside risks from de-anchored longer-term expectations, fiscal stimulus, and commodity pass-through have limited further downside revisions, even as the Copom's calibration cycle lowered the Selic to 14.00% with markets pricing one additional 25 basis point cut by year-end. Slower 1.95% GDP growth forecasts reinforce the contained path within the leading bin.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$100,222Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market-implied odds for Brazil's 2026 IPCA annual inflation cluster around the 5.00-5.49% range at 47%, reflecting the latest Focus survey median of 5.02% held steady through mid-August alongside the central bank's reference scenario projection of 5.1%. Recent July IPCA data at 4.44% year-over-year returned within the 1.5-4.5% tolerance band around the 3% target, supported by easing food, transport, and services components, while the August IPCA-15 preview showed a -0.40% month-over-month decline. Persistent upside risks from de-anchored longer-term expectations, fiscal stimulus, and commodity pass-through have limited further downside revisions, even as the Copom's calibration cycle lowered the Selic to 14.00% with markets pricing one additional 25 basis point cut by year-end. Slower 1.95% GDP growth forecasts reinforce the contained path within the leading bin.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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