Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 5.50%, reflecting caution after March 2026 headline CPI accelerated to 4.59% year-over-year—the highest in 19 months—from 4.02% in February, driven by surging food prices like tomatoes and energy costs. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid the uptick, in a divided 3-2 vote, revised first-quarter inflation forecasts higher to 4.1% while anticipating convergence toward the 3% target later in the year. Elevated Citi survey median year-end 2026 expectations at 4.23% underscore sticky pressures, with April CPI data due around April 23 potentially influencing further positioning amid global commodity volatility.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5.50%+ 44%
3.50% to 3.99% 37.5%
<2.50% 22.5%
4.50% to 4.99% 19%
$34,809 Vol.
$34,809 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
23%
2.50% to 2.99%
1%
3.00% to 3.49%
16%
3.50% to 3.99%
24%
4.00% to 4.49%
26%
4.50% to 4.99%
22%
5.00% to 5.49%
27%
5.50%+
44%
5.50%+ 44%
3.50% to 3.99% 37.5%
<2.50% 22.5%
4.50% to 4.99% 19%
$34,809 Vol.
$34,809 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$0 Vol.
23%
2.50% to 2.99%
$0 Vol.
1%
3.00% to 3.49%
$25,671 Vol.
16%
3.50% to 3.99%
$344 Vol.
24%
4.00% to 4.49%
$357 Vol.
26%
4.50% to 4.99%
$3,063 Vol.
22%
5.00% to 5.49%
$401 Vol.
27%
5.50%+
$4,972 Vol.
44%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 5.50%, reflecting caution after March 2026 headline CPI accelerated to 4.59% year-over-year—the highest in 19 months—from 4.02% in February, driven by surging food prices like tomatoes and energy costs. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid the uptick, in a divided 3-2 vote, revised first-quarter inflation forecasts higher to 4.1% while anticipating convergence toward the 3% target later in the year. Elevated Citi survey median year-end 2026 expectations at 4.23% underscore sticky pressures, with April CPI data due around April 23 potentially influencing further positioning amid global commodity volatility.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$34,809Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 8, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 5.50%, reflecting caution after March 2026 headline CPI accelerated to 4.59% year-over-year—the highest in 19 months—from 4.02% in February, driven by surging food prices like tomatoes and energy costs. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid the uptick, in a divided 3-2 vote, revised first-quarter inflation forecasts higher to 4.1% while anticipating convergence toward the 3% target later in the year. Elevated Citi survey median year-end 2026 expectations at 4.23% underscore sticky pressures, with April CPI data due around April 23 potentially influencing further positioning amid global commodity volatility.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$34,809Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 8, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Mexico's 2026 annual inflation exceeding 5.50%, reflecting caution after March 2026 headline CPI accelerated to 4.59% year-over-year—the highest in 19 months—from 4.02% in February, driven by surging food prices like tomatoes and energy costs. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 amid the uptick, in a divided 3-2 vote, revised first-quarter inflation forecasts higher to 4.1% while anticipating convergence toward the 3% target later in the year. Elevated Citi survey median year-end 2026 expectations at 4.23% underscore sticky pressures, with April CPI data due around April 23 potentially influencing further positioning amid global commodity volatility.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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