Recent July 2026 inflation data at 3.12% year-over-year, the lowest reading since 2020, has reinforced the disinflation trend and positioned the 3.50%–3.99% annual outcome as the leading market-implied probability at 46.4%. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, while Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% and revised 2026 forecasts modestly higher amid sticky services prices. Analyst projections from BBVA and others cluster around 3.6%–3.9% for year-end 2026, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 28.5% odds on the adjacent 4.00%–4.49% bucket. Upcoming Banxico communications and August CPI will test whether the path stays anchored within the 3% target range plus or minus one percentage point.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3.50% to 3.99% 46.4%
4.00% to 4.49% 29%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
3.00% to 3.49% 7.2%
$63,934 Vol.
$63,934 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
7%
3.50% to 3.99%
46%
4.00% to 4.49%
29%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
3%
3.50% to 3.99% 46.4%
4.00% to 4.49% 29%
4.50% to 4.99% 8%
3.00% to 3.49% 7.2%
$63,934 Vol.
$63,934 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$1,061 Vol.
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,895 Vol.
5%
3.00% to 3.49%
$28,329 Vol.
7%
3.50% to 3.99%
$3,820 Vol.
46%
4.00% to 4.49%
$12,313 Vol.
29%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,752 Vol.
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,452 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$6,313 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent July 2026 inflation data at 3.12% year-over-year, the lowest reading since 2020, has reinforced the disinflation trend and positioned the 3.50%–3.99% annual outcome as the leading market-implied probability at 46.4%. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, while Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% and revised 2026 forecasts modestly higher amid sticky services prices. Analyst projections from BBVA and others cluster around 3.6%–3.9% for year-end 2026, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 28.5% odds on the adjacent 4.00%–4.49% bucket. Upcoming Banxico communications and August CPI will test whether the path stays anchored within the 3% target range plus or minus one percentage point.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$63,934Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 8, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent July 2026 inflation data at 3.12% year-over-year, the lowest reading since 2020, has reinforced the disinflation trend and positioned the 3.50%–3.99% annual outcome as the leading market-implied probability at 46.4%. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, while Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% and revised 2026 forecasts modestly higher amid sticky services prices. Analyst projections from BBVA and others cluster around 3.6%–3.9% for year-end 2026, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 28.5% odds on the adjacent 4.00%–4.49% bucket. Upcoming Banxico communications and August CPI will test whether the path stays anchored within the 3% target range plus or minus one percentage point.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$63,934Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 8, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 inflation data at 3.12% year-over-year, the lowest reading since 2020, has reinforced the disinflation trend and positioned the 3.50%–3.99% annual outcome as the leading market-implied probability at 46.4%. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, while Banxico has held its policy rate at 6.50% and revised 2026 forecasts modestly higher amid sticky services prices. Analyst projections from BBVA and others cluster around 3.6%–3.9% for year-end 2026, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 28.5% odds on the adjacent 4.00%–4.49% bucket. Upcoming Banxico communications and August CPI will test whether the path stays anchored within the 3% target range plus or minus one percentage point.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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