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Keuangan·Fomc

Fed rate hike by...?

Market icon
Keuangan·Fomc

Fed rate hike by...?

Oct 29

Dec 9

Oct 29

Dec 9

$31,312 Vol.

Dec 9, 2026
Polymarket

$31,312 Vol.

Polymarket
Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting? icon

April Meeting

$24,301 Vol.

1%

Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? icon

June Meeting

$6,580 Vol.

4%

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? icon

July Meeting

$372 Vol.

16%

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? icon

September Meeting

$3 Vol.

15%

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? icon

October Meeting

$55 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% after the March 17–18, 2026 FOMC meeting, as minutes released April 8 revealed some officials' growing openness to rate hikes amid persistent inflation pressures. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—fueled by a 0.9% monthly jump tied to oil price shocks from the Iran conflict, while producer prices rose 4.0% annually. Polymarket trader consensus prices near-certainty of no change at the April 28–29 meeting, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on resilient labor markets outweighing near-term hike risks, though upside inflation surprises could elevate market-implied odds for later 2026 action ahead of June 16–17 FOMC.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,312
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% after the March 17–18, 2026 FOMC meeting, as minutes released April 8 revealed some officials' growing openness to rate hikes amid persistent inflation pressures. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—fueled by a 0.9% monthly jump tied to oil price shocks from the Iran conflict, while producer prices rose 4.0% annually. Polymarket trader consensus prices near-certainty of no change at the April 28–29 meeting, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets on resilient labor markets outweighing near-term hike risks, though upside inflation surprises could elevate market-implied odds for later 2026 action ahead of June 16–17 FOMC.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,312
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Fed rate hike by...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 5 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "October Meeting" di 19%, diikuti oleh "July Meeting" di 17%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 19¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 19% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Fed rate hike by...?" telah menghasilkan $31.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 31, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Fed rate hike by...?," jelajahi 5 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Fed rate hike by...?" adalah "October Meeting" di 19%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 19% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "July Meeting" di 17%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Fed rate hike by...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.