Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since mid-2023 and driven primarily by energy price spikes—has anchored trader expectations for no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. A resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% and steady payroll gains has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and focus on upside inflation risks, producing market-implied odds above 90% for holding steady. This pricing aligns with futures markets and reflects the central bank’s recent communications emphasizing caution amid persistent price pressures. The May CPI release scheduled for June 10 could still alter sentiment if it shows materially faster disinflation, while a sharp labor market deterioration or unexpected geopolitical easing in energy markets represents other realistic paths that might shift the consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak ada perubahan 93%
Kenaikan 25 bps 5.5%
Penurunan 25 bps 2.1%
Penurunan 50+ bps <1%
$7,615,456 Vol.
$7,615,456 Vol.
Penurunan 50+ bps
1%
Penurunan 25 bps
2%
Tidak ada perubahan
93%
Kenaikan 25 bps
6%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
<1%
Tidak ada perubahan 93%
Kenaikan 25 bps 5.5%
Penurunan 25 bps 2.1%
Penurunan 50+ bps <1%
$7,615,456 Vol.
$7,615,456 Vol.
Penurunan 50+ bps
1%
Penurunan 25 bps
2%
Tidak ada perubahan
93%
Kenaikan 25 bps
6%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest level since mid-2023 and driven primarily by energy price spikes—has anchored trader expectations for no change in the federal funds rate target range of 3.50-3.75% at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. A resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% and steady payroll gains has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and focus on upside inflation risks, producing market-implied odds above 90% for holding steady. This pricing aligns with futures markets and reflects the central bank’s recent communications emphasizing caution amid persistent price pressures. The May CPI release scheduled for June 10 could still alter sentiment if it shows materially faster disinflation, while a sharp labor market deterioration or unexpected geopolitical easing in energy markets represents other realistic paths that might shift the consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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