Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held the federal funds target steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with its dot plot projecting just one cut sometime in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. CME FedWatch futures corroborate a flat rate path near 3.6%, pricing out near-term easing despite 12.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, which could shift sentiment if disinflation resumes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak ada perubahan 81%
Penurunan 25 bps 13%
Kenaikan 25 bps 3.9%
Penurunan 50+ bps 2.5%
$3,681,825 Vol.
$3,681,825 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Penurunan 50+ bps
2%
Penurunan 25 bps
13%
Tidak ada perubahan
81%
Kenaikan 25 bps
4%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
1%
Tidak ada perubahan 81%
Penurunan 25 bps 13%
Kenaikan 25 bps 3.9%
Penurunan 50+ bps 2.5%
$3,681,825 Vol.
$3,681,825 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Penurunan 50+ bps
$165,705 Vol.
2%
Penurunan 25 bps
$114,782 Vol.
13%
Tidak ada perubahan
$182,962 Vol.
81%
Kenaikan 25 bps
$3,022,073 Vol.
4%
Kenaikan 50+ bps
$196,303 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held the federal funds target steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with its dot plot projecting just one cut sometime in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. CME FedWatch futures corroborate a flat rate path near 3.6%, pricing out near-term easing despite 12.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, which could shift sentiment if disinflation resumes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$3,681,825Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held the federal funds target steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with its dot plot projecting just one cut sometime in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. CME FedWatch futures corroborate a flat rate path near 3.6%, pricing out near-term easing despite 12.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, which could shift sentiment if disinflation resumes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$3,681,825Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The Fed's March 18 decision held the federal funds target steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with its dot plot projecting just one cut sometime in 2026 amid persistent price pressures. CME FedWatch futures corroborate a flat rate path near 3.6%, pricing out near-term easing despite 12.5% odds for a 25 basis point cut. Key catalysts ahead include April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC, which could shift sentiment if disinflation resumes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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