Elevated August 2026 CPI readings at 3.4% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly increase and core at 2.4%, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting around the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Persistent price pressures above the 2% goal, reinforced by energy and shelter components, support the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change while sustaining a 37.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as a data-dependent response. Traders view the September 15–16 meeting and subsequent releases as key swing factors that could shift odds, with the low probabilities assigned to cuts reflecting limited downside risks priced into near-term policy. This positioning reflects real-capital consensus on inflation’s trajectory outweighing any near-term labor market softening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 62%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,793,478 Vol.
$1,793,478 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
38%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 2.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,793,478 Vol.
$1,793,478 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$301,164 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$611,929 Vol.
2%
No change
$302,052 Vol.
62%
25 bps increase
$374,755 Vol.
38%
50+ bps increase
$203,578 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI readings at 3.4% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly increase and core at 2.4%, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting around the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Persistent price pressures above the 2% goal, reinforced by energy and shelter components, support the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change while sustaining a 37.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as a data-dependent response. Traders view the September 15–16 meeting and subsequent releases as key swing factors that could shift odds, with the low probabilities assigned to cuts reflecting limited downside risks priced into near-term policy. This positioning reflects real-capital consensus on inflation’s trajectory outweighing any near-term labor market softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,793,478Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI readings at 3.4% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly increase and core at 2.4%, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting around the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Persistent price pressures above the 2% goal, reinforced by energy and shelter components, support the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change while sustaining a 37.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as a data-dependent response. Traders view the September 15–16 meeting and subsequent releases as key swing factors that could shift odds, with the low probabilities assigned to cuts reflecting limited downside risks priced into near-term policy. This positioning reflects real-capital consensus on inflation’s trajectory outweighing any near-term labor market softening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,793,478Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated August 2026 CPI readings at 3.4% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly increase and core at 2.4%, have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting around the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Persistent price pressures above the 2% goal, reinforced by energy and shelter components, support the 61.5% market-implied probability of no change while sustaining a 37.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as a data-dependent response. Traders view the September 15–16 meeting and subsequent releases as key swing factors that could shift odds, with the low probabilities assigned to cuts reflecting limited downside risks priced into near-term policy. This positioning reflects real-capital consensus on inflation’s trajectory outweighing any near-term labor market softening.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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