Recent U.S. labor market strength and above-target inflation have positioned a 25 basis point rate hike as the leading market-implied outcome for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, while August CPI printed at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core readings remained elevated. These data, alongside persistent PCE inflation near 3.8–3.9 percent, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy to address supply-side pressures and resilient demand. The current fed funds target of 3.50–3.75 percent and recent FOMC projections showing a higher median year-end rate path reinforce this pricing. The September 15–16 meeting and its dot plot will provide the next key signal before December.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,284 Vol.
$687,284 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
No change 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
$687,284 Vol.
$687,284 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,768 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,904 Vol.
3%
No change
$136,708 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,122 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,782 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. labor market strength and above-target inflation have positioned a 25 basis point rate hike as the leading market-implied outcome for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, while August CPI printed at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core readings remained elevated. These data, alongside persistent PCE inflation near 3.8–3.9 percent, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy to address supply-side pressures and resilient demand. The current fed funds target of 3.50–3.75 percent and recent FOMC projections showing a higher median year-end rate path reinforce this pricing. The September 15–16 meeting and its dot plot will provide the next key signal before December.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$687,284Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. labor market strength and above-target inflation have positioned a 25 basis point rate hike as the leading market-implied outcome for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, while August CPI printed at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core readings remained elevated. These data, alongside persistent PCE inflation near 3.8–3.9 percent, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy to address supply-side pressures and resilient demand. The current fed funds target of 3.50–3.75 percent and recent FOMC projections showing a higher median year-end rate path reinforce this pricing. The September 15–16 meeting and its dot plot will provide the next key signal before December.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$687,284Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market strength and above-target inflation have positioned a 25 basis point rate hike as the leading market-implied outcome for the December 2026 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000—well above consensus—with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent, while August CPI printed at 3.4 percent year-over-year and core readings remained elevated. These data, alongside persistent PCE inflation near 3.8–3.9 percent, have shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy to address supply-side pressures and resilient demand. The current fed funds target of 3.50–3.75 percent and recent FOMC projections showing a higher median year-end rate path reinforce this pricing. The September 15–16 meeting and its dot plot will provide the next key signal before December.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan