Elevated inflation, with July PCE holding at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures near 3.3%, alongside supply shocks from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment toward holds rather than cuts for the July–October FOMC meetings. The July decision maintained the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a hike, while Chair Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric and minutes signaled limited tolerance for easing. Stable labor conditions at 4.2% unemployment and resilient growth have further reduced cut probabilities, pushing the “Other” outcome—encompassing potential hikes or mixed paths—to 62% implied odds versus 34.5% for repeated pauses. September data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOther 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,441 Vol.
$730,441 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
62%
Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,441 Vol.
$730,441 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$241,054 Vol.
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,014 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,467 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,277 Vol.
<1%
Other
$316,142 Vol.
62%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, with July PCE holding at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures near 3.3%, alongside supply shocks from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment toward holds rather than cuts for the July–October FOMC meetings. The July decision maintained the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a hike, while Chair Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric and minutes signaled limited tolerance for easing. Stable labor conditions at 4.2% unemployment and resilient growth have further reduced cut probabilities, pushing the “Other” outcome—encompassing potential hikes or mixed paths—to 62% implied odds versus 34.5% for repeated pauses. September data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$730,441Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, with July PCE holding at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures near 3.3%, alongside supply shocks from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment toward holds rather than cuts for the July–October FOMC meetings. The July decision maintained the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a hike, while Chair Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric and minutes signaled limited tolerance for easing. Stable labor conditions at 4.2% unemployment and resilient growth have further reduced cut probabilities, pushing the “Other” outcome—encompassing potential hikes or mixed paths—to 62% implied odds versus 34.5% for repeated pauses. September data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$730,441Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation, with July PCE holding at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures near 3.3%, alongside supply shocks from Middle East tensions, has anchored trader sentiment toward holds rather than cuts for the July–October FOMC meetings. The July decision maintained the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a hike, while Chair Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric and minutes signaled limited tolerance for easing. Stable labor conditions at 4.2% unemployment and resilient growth have further reduced cut probabilities, pushing the “Other” outcome—encompassing potential hikes or mixed paths—to 62% implied odds versus 34.5% for repeated pauses. September data releases and the next FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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