Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are the primary drivers anchoring market-implied odds at 58% for no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly gain, while unemployment held at 4.1% and payroll growth reached 162,000, sustaining concerns over sticky price pressures in energy and services. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward a higher terminal rate path near 3.8%, pricing in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike alongside limited support for cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the September FOMC statement will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty in the policy trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.4%
$71,022 Vol.
$71,022 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
58%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 58%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.4%
$71,022 Vol.
$71,022 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Vol.
4%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Vol.
14%
No change
$21,181 Vol.
58%
25 bps increase
$17,011 Vol.
23%
50+ bps increase
$3,974 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are the primary drivers anchoring market-implied odds at 58% for no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly gain, while unemployment held at 4.1% and payroll growth reached 162,000, sustaining concerns over sticky price pressures in energy and services. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward a higher terminal rate path near 3.8%, pricing in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike alongside limited support for cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the September FOMC statement will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty in the policy trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$71,022Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 27, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are the primary drivers anchoring market-implied odds at 58% for no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly gain, while unemployment held at 4.1% and payroll growth reached 162,000, sustaining concerns over sticky price pressures in energy and services. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward a higher terminal rate path near 3.8%, pricing in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike alongside limited support for cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the September FOMC statement will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty in the policy trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$71,022Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 27, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a resilient labor market are the primary drivers anchoring market-implied odds at 58% for no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly gain, while unemployment held at 4.1% and payroll growth reached 162,000, sustaining concerns over sticky price pressures in energy and services. These factors have shifted trader consensus toward a higher terminal rate path near 3.8%, pricing in a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike alongside limited support for cuts. Upcoming September data releases and the September FOMC statement will likely refine these probabilities amid ongoing uncertainty in the policy trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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