The dismissal of the DOJ's criminal inquiry into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a failed probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, underpins the 98% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. No charges resulted, subpoenas were quashed for lack of evidence, and Powell continues serving without legal constraints, consistent with historical precedent for Fed chairs facing political pressure. Traders price in strong institutional safeguards around central bank independence, reinforced by current monetary policy stability and the absence of new regulatory or judicial actions as of mid-2026. Tail risks remain remote but could include unforeseen executive actions or unrelated allegations surfacing near term limits.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The dismissal of the DOJ's criminal inquiry into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a failed probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, underpins the 98% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. No charges resulted, subpoenas were quashed for lack of evidence, and Powell continues serving without legal constraints, consistent with historical precedent for Fed chairs facing political pressure. Traders price in strong institutional safeguards around central bank independence, reinforced by current monetary policy stability and the absence of new regulatory or judicial actions as of mid-2026. Tail risks remain remote but could include unforeseen executive actions or unrelated allegations surfacing near term limits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$5,592Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The dismissal of the DOJ's criminal inquiry into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a failed probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, underpins the 98% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. No charges resulted, subpoenas were quashed for lack of evidence, and Powell continues serving without legal constraints, consistent with historical precedent for Fed chairs facing political pressure. Traders price in strong institutional safeguards around central bank independence, reinforced by current monetary policy stability and the absence of new regulatory or judicial actions as of mid-2026. Tail risks remain remote but could include unforeseen executive actions or unrelated allegations surfacing near term limits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,592Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The dismissal of the DOJ's criminal inquiry into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a failed probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, underpins the 98% market-implied odds against incarceration before 2027. No charges resulted, subpoenas were quashed for lack of evidence, and Powell continues serving without legal constraints, consistent with historical precedent for Fed chairs facing political pressure. Traders price in strong institutional safeguards around central bank independence, reinforced by current monetary policy stability and the absence of new regulatory or judicial actions as of mid-2026. Tail risks remain remote but could include unforeseen executive actions or unrelated allegations surfacing near term limits.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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