Federal courts have twice blocked Department of Justice subpoenas in the criminal probe targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's oversight of headquarters renovations—alleged congressional misrepresentation of costs—citing prosecutors' failure to present fraud evidence and signs of political pressure from the Trump administration over monetary policy independence. This judicial intervention, upheld as recently as April 4, 2026, has stalled the investigation with no charges filed, driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 95.5% implied probability on "No" incarceration before 2027, backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks include a successful DOJ appeal to higher courts or unforeseen post-May 2026 developments amid Powell's term end and successor confirmation battles.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Federal courts have twice blocked Department of Justice subpoenas in the criminal probe targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's oversight of headquarters renovations—alleged congressional misrepresentation of costs—citing prosecutors' failure to present fraud evidence and signs of political pressure from the Trump administration over monetary policy independence. This judicial intervention, upheld as recently as April 4, 2026, has stalled the investigation with no charges filed, driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 95.5% implied probability on "No" incarceration before 2027, backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks include a successful DOJ appeal to higher courts or unforeseen post-May 2026 developments amid Powell's term end and successor confirmation battles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Federal courts have twice blocked Department of Justice subpoenas in the criminal probe targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's oversight of headquarters renovations—alleged congressional misrepresentation of costs—citing prosecutors' failure to present fraud evidence and signs of political pressure from the Trump administration over monetary policy independence. This judicial intervention, upheld as recently as April 4, 2026, has stalled the investigation with no charges filed, driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 95.5% implied probability on "No" incarceration before 2027, backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks include a successful DOJ appeal to higher courts or unforeseen post-May 2026 developments amid Powell's term end and successor confirmation battles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Federal courts have twice blocked Department of Justice subpoenas in the criminal probe targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's oversight of headquarters renovations—alleged congressional misrepresentation of costs—citing prosecutors' failure to present fraud evidence and signs of political pressure from the Trump administration over monetary policy independence. This judicial intervention, upheld as recently as April 4, 2026, has stalled the investigation with no charges filed, driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 95.5% implied probability on "No" incarceration before 2027, backed by real capital at stake. Tail risks include a successful DOJ appeal to higher courts or unforeseen post-May 2026 developments amid Powell's term end and successor confirmation battles.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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