The near-certain 97.2% market-implied odds against Jerome Powell serving jail time before 2027 reflect the absence of any active criminal charges or credible legal proceedings following the Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its probe into Federal Reserve headquarters renovations and related congressional testimony. That inquiry, opened in January amid political tensions over monetary policy independence, produced no indictments, and a federal judge previously quashed key subpoenas for lack of evidence. Powell’s completed term as Fed Chair in May 2026 and ongoing role as governor through 2028 further insulate him from personal liability risks tied to institutional decisions. While tail scenarios such as unforeseen new allegations or extraordinary political escalations remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting developments in regulatory filings or official statements and would require unprecedented shifts in enforcement priorities to alter the current consensus.