**Elevated term premiums driven by persistent U.S. fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP and heavy Treasury coupon issuance are the primary force lifting 10-year yields, which closed around 4.67-4.73% in late August 2026 after rising roughly 50 basis points over the prior year.** Inflation expectations remain anchored near the Fed’s 2% target, so the move reflects higher real yields and compensation for duration risk rather than accelerating price pressures. Recent Treasury buyback expansions have provided modest support at the long end, yet competing corporate issuance from AI-related capex continues to pressure the curve. Trader consensus on related prediction markets assigns high probability to yields testing 4.8% before year-end while pricing sharply lower odds above 5%, reflecting uncertainty around the FOMC path, upcoming PCE and employment data, and any further policy or issuance adjustments.