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Ekonomi·Bisnis

Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?

Market icon
Ekonomi·Bisnis

Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?

0 (0 bps) 35.7%

1 (25 bps) 30%

2 (50 bps) 19%

3 (75 bps) 8%

Polymarket

$19,665,501 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 35.7%

1 (25 bps) 30%

2 (50 bps) 19%

3 (75 bps) 8%

Polymarket

$19,665,501 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$3,264,599 Vol.

36%

1 (25 bps)

$1,051,315 Vol.

30%

2 (50 bps)

$1,033,208 Vol.

19%

3 (75 bps)

$949,986 Vol.

8%

4 (100 bps)

$978,095 Vol.

4%

5 (125 bps)

$1,086,479 Vol.

1%

6 (150 bps)

$2,126,462 Vol.

1%

7 (175 bps)

$955,714 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 bps)

$1,245,696 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 bps)

$1,260,702 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 bps)

$1,750,397 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 bps)

$2,113,547 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$1,849,584 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a razor-thin contest between zero (35.6%) and one (29.5%) Fed rate cuts totaling 25 basis points in 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. The March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% monthly to 3.3% year-over-year on April 10—its highest since mid-2024—driven by a 10.9% energy spike from Middle East oil shocks tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, eroding easing bets. March nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while FOMC March 17-18 minutes (April 8 release) revealed officials' inflation skepticism and openness to hikes if pressures persist. Key swing factors include April 29-30 FOMC signals and May 12 CPI; sustained oil volatility above $100/barrel could solidify no-cut consensus versus transitory relief enabling one trim.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$19,665,501
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a razor-thin contest between zero (35.6%) and one (29.5%) Fed rate cuts totaling 25 basis points in 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. The March 2026 CPI surged 0.9% monthly to 3.3% year-over-year on April 10—its highest since mid-2024—driven by a 10.9% energy spike from Middle East oil shocks tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, eroding easing bets. March nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, while FOMC March 17-18 minutes (April 8 release) revealed officials' inflation skepticism and openness to hikes if pressures persist. Key swing factors include April 29-30 FOMC signals and May 12 CPI; sustained oil volatility above $100/barrel could solidify no-cut consensus versus transitory relief enabling one trim.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$19,665,501
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 13 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "0 (0 bps)" di 36%, diikuti oleh "1 (25 bps)" di 30%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 36¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 36% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?" telah menghasilkan $19.7 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Sep 29, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?," jelajahi 13 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?" adalah "0 (0 bps)" di 36%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 36% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "1 (25 bps)" di 30%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Berapa banyak penurunan suku bunga Fed pada tahun 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.