Polymarket traders assign an 89.5% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses in the federal funds rate through the March, April, and June 2026 meetings, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the 3.5%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation pressures. The March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions, while unemployment held steady near 4.3%-4.4% with modest nonfarm payroll gains, signaling a resilient yet cooling labor market. The Fed's March dot plot projects just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026, tempering near-term easing expectations. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for fresh guidance, with core CPI and jobs data as key swing factors.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMenahan–Menahan–Menahan 90%
Tahan–Tahan–Turun 8%
Lainnya 2.6%
Pause–Potong–Pause 1.1%
$906,499 Vol.
$906,499 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Menahan–Menahan–Menahan
90%
Tahan–Tahan–Turun
8%
Lainnya
3%
Pause–Potong–Pause
1%
Paus–Turunkan–Turunkan
1%
Menahan–Menahan–Menahan 90%
Tahan–Tahan–Turun 8%
Lainnya 2.6%
Pause–Potong–Pause 1.1%
$906,499 Vol.
$906,499 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Menahan–Menahan–Menahan
$31,961 Vol.
90%
Tahan–Tahan–Turun
$15,233 Vol.
8%
Lainnya
$216,565 Vol.
3%
Pause–Potong–Pause
$132,529 Vol.
1%
Paus–Turunkan–Turunkan
$510,210 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign an 89.5% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses in the federal funds rate through the March, April, and June 2026 meetings, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the 3.5%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation pressures. The March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions, while unemployment held steady near 4.3%-4.4% with modest nonfarm payroll gains, signaling a resilient yet cooling labor market. The Fed's March dot plot projects just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026, tempering near-term easing expectations. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for fresh guidance, with core CPI and jobs data as key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$906,499Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign an 89.5% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses in the federal funds rate through the March, April, and June 2026 meetings, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the 3.5%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation pressures. The March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions, while unemployment held steady near 4.3%-4.4% with modest nonfarm payroll gains, signaling a resilient yet cooling labor market. The Fed's March dot plot projects just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026, tempering near-term easing expectations. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for fresh guidance, with core CPI and jobs data as key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$906,499Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 17, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign an 89.5% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses in the federal funds rate through the March, April, and June 2026 meetings, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the 3.5%-3.75% target range amid persistent inflation pressures. The March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions, while unemployment held steady near 4.3%-4.4% with modest nonfarm payroll gains, signaling a resilient yet cooling labor market. The Fed's March dot plot projects just one 25-basis-point cut later in 2026, tempering near-term easing expectations. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for fresh guidance, with core CPI and jobs data as key swing factors.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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