Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, running near 3.4% in recent CPI prints, combined with a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh and a dot-plot median projecting one hike, has lifted market-implied odds for a 2026 rate increase to 54.5%. Resilient growth, solid employment, and oil-price pressures from Middle East tensions support the case for tightening, yet moderating core readings and divided FOMC votes keep a hold plausible. The closely balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether supply shocks will fade without policy action. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether inflation momentum warrants a December hike or sustained patience.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiYa
55% peluang
$7,314,456 Vol.
$7,314,456 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Ya
55% peluang
$7,314,456 Vol.
$7,314,456 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, running near 3.4% in recent CPI prints, combined with a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh and a dot-plot median projecting one hike, has lifted market-implied odds for a 2026 rate increase to 54.5%. Resilient growth, solid employment, and oil-price pressures from Middle East tensions support the case for tightening, yet moderating core readings and divided FOMC votes keep a hold plausible. The closely balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether supply shocks will fade without policy action. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether inflation momentum warrants a December hike or sustained patience.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,314,456Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, running near 3.4% in recent CPI prints, combined with a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh and a dot-plot median projecting one hike, has lifted market-implied odds for a 2026 rate increase to 54.5%. Resilient growth, solid employment, and oil-price pressures from Middle East tensions support the case for tightening, yet moderating core readings and divided FOMC votes keep a hold plausible. The closely balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether supply shocks will fade without policy action. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether inflation momentum warrants a December hike or sustained patience.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,314,456Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, running near 3.4% in recent CPI prints, combined with a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh and a dot-plot median projecting one hike, has lifted market-implied odds for a 2026 rate increase to 54.5%. Resilient growth, solid employment, and oil-price pressures from Middle East tensions support the case for tightening, yet moderating core readings and divided FOMC votes keep a hold plausible. The closely balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether supply shocks will fade without policy action. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, which could clarify whether inflation momentum warrants a December hike or sustained patience.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan