Polymarket traders assign a 94% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and the absence of crisis signals following the March 2026 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Sticky core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7%—elevated by oil price shocks from Middle East tensions—and a stable unemployment rate near 4.3% with GDP growth close to potential underpin this consensus, as Fed officials like Goolsbee signal cuts may wait until 2027. Fed funds futures price zero cuts for 2026 with 92% odds. Realistic challenges include sudden labor market deterioration, banking stress, or geopolitical escalation prompting an unscheduled FOMC intermeeting action, ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$101,628 Vol.
$101,628 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$101,628 Vol.
$101,628 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Polymarket traders assign a 94% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and the absence of crisis signals following the March 2026 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Sticky core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7%—elevated by oil price shocks from Middle East tensions—and a stable unemployment rate near 4.3% with GDP growth close to potential underpin this consensus, as Fed officials like Goolsbee signal cuts may wait until 2027. Fed funds futures price zero cuts for 2026 with 92% odds. Realistic challenges include sudden labor market deterioration, banking stress, or geopolitical escalation prompting an unscheduled FOMC intermeeting action, ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$101,628Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Polymarket traders assign a 94% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and the absence of crisis signals following the March 2026 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Sticky core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7%—elevated by oil price shocks from Middle East tensions—and a stable unemployment rate near 4.3% with GDP growth close to potential underpin this consensus, as Fed officials like Goolsbee signal cuts may wait until 2027. Fed funds futures price zero cuts for 2026 with 92% odds. Realistic challenges include sudden labor market deterioration, banking stress, or geopolitical escalation prompting an unscheduled FOMC intermeeting action, ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$101,628Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 94% implied probability to no Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and the absence of crisis signals following the March 2026 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Sticky core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7%—elevated by oil price shocks from Middle East tensions—and a stable unemployment rate near 4.3% with GDP growth close to potential underpin this consensus, as Fed officials like Goolsbee signal cuts may wait until 2027. Fed funds futures price zero cuts for 2026 with 92% odds. Realistic challenges include sudden labor market deterioration, banking stress, or geopolitical escalation prompting an unscheduled FOMC intermeeting action, ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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