Elevated May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, fueled by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and solid job gains, has anchored the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% target range and reinforced trader consensus against near-term easing. With the effective federal funds rate near 3.62% and futures pricing no cuts through 2026, the 90.5% market-implied probability of no emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of persistent inflation pressures outweighing recession risks. A sharp deterioration in growth, severe financial stress, or abrupt labor market weakening could still prompt an unscheduled inter-meeting move, though current data trajectories make such outcomes unlikely in the near term.