Elevated inflation pressures from recent energy price spikes and geopolitical tensions, alongside a divided FOMC, represent the primary drivers behind the closely matched market-implied odds across Fed rate paths for the September, November, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent following the July 9–3 hold decision and July CPI showing 3.4 percent year-over-year gains, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether incoming data will sustain hawkish momentum or allow a pause after an initial move. The upcoming September 15–16 meeting, which includes updated Summary of Economic Projections, serves as the key near-term catalyst, while labor market indicators around 4.1–4.3 percent unemployment and moderating job gains introduce counterbalancing downside risks that keep multiple sequences within a narrow probability band.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHike–Pause–Hike 24%
Hike–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Hike 17%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
BARU
BARU
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
24%
Hike–Pause–Pause
20%
Hike–Hike–Hike
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
17%
Pause–Pause–Pause
12%
Pause–Hike–Hike
6%
Pause–Hike–Pause
9%
Other
7%
Hike–Pause–Hike 24%
Hike–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Hike 17%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
BARU
BARU
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$40 Vol.
24%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$41 Vol.
20%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$25 Vol.
7%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$25 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$25 Vol.
17%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$25 Vol.
12%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$25 Vol.
6%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$42 Vol.
9%
Other
$25 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures from recent energy price spikes and geopolitical tensions, alongside a divided FOMC, represent the primary drivers behind the closely matched market-implied odds across Fed rate paths for the September, November, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent following the July 9–3 hold decision and July CPI showing 3.4 percent year-over-year gains, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether incoming data will sustain hawkish momentum or allow a pause after an initial move. The upcoming September 15–16 meeting, which includes updated Summary of Economic Projections, serves as the key near-term catalyst, while labor market indicators around 4.1–4.3 percent unemployment and moderating job gains introduce counterbalancing downside risks that keep multiple sequences within a narrow probability band.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$273Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures from recent energy price spikes and geopolitical tensions, alongside a divided FOMC, represent the primary drivers behind the closely matched market-implied odds across Fed rate paths for the September, November, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent following the July 9–3 hold decision and July CPI showing 3.4 percent year-over-year gains, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether incoming data will sustain hawkish momentum or allow a pause after an initial move. The upcoming September 15–16 meeting, which includes updated Summary of Economic Projections, serves as the key near-term catalyst, while labor market indicators around 4.1–4.3 percent unemployment and moderating job gains introduce counterbalancing downside risks that keep multiple sequences within a narrow probability band.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$273Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 9, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures from recent energy price spikes and geopolitical tensions, alongside a divided FOMC, represent the primary drivers behind the closely matched market-implied odds across Fed rate paths for the September, November, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent following the July 9–3 hold decision and July CPI showing 3.4 percent year-over-year gains, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether incoming data will sustain hawkish momentum or allow a pause after an initial move. The upcoming September 15–16 meeting, which includes updated Summary of Economic Projections, serves as the key near-term catalyst, while labor market indicators around 4.1–4.3 percent unemployment and moderating job gains introduce counterbalancing downside risks that keep multiple sequences within a narrow probability band.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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