Skip to main content
Market icon
Dunia·Brasil

Pemilihan Presiden Brasil

Market icon
Dunia·Brasil

Pemilihan Presiden Brasil

Flávio Bolsonaro 40.5%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%

Renan Santos 6.2%

Fernando Haddad 4.3%

Polymarket

$53,673,357 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 40.5%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%

Renan Santos 6.2%

Fernando Haddad 4.3%

Polymarket

$53,673,357 Vol.

Apakah Flávio Bolsonaro akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Flávio Bolsonaro

$4,172,812 Vol.

41%

Apakah Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,581,118 Vol.

40%

Apakah Renan Santos akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Renan Santos

$4,094,010 Vol.

6%

Apakah Fernando Haddad akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Fernando Haddad

$3,562,863 Vol.

4%

Apakah Romeu Zema akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Romeu Zema

$854,677 Vol.

3%

Apakah Camilo Santana akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Camilo Santana

$1,247,626 Vol.

2%

Apakah Ronaldo Caiado akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Ronaldo Caiado

$1,719,161 Vol.

2%

Apakah Michelle Bolsonaro akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Michelle Bolsonaro

$4,382,406 Vol.

1%

Apakah Jair Bolsonaro akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Jair Bolsonaro

$2,783,095 Vol.

1%

Apakah Geraldo Alckmin akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Geraldo Alckmin

$1,034,892 Vol.

<1%

Akankah Tarcisio de Freitas memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Tarcisio de Freitas

$7,825,460 Vol.

<1%

Apakah Eduardo Bolsonaro akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$6,755,836 Vol.

<1%

Apakah Aldo Rebelo akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Aldo Rebelo

$1,104,465 Vol.

<1%

Apakah Eduardo Leite akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Eduardo Leite

$3,211,878 Vol.

<1%

Apakah Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior akan memenangkan pemilihan presiden Brasil 2026? icon

Ratinho Júnior

$6,343,778 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, CNT/MDA, and Quaest show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva statistically tied or within margin of error—46% apiece in some second-round simulations—for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election, mirroring Polymarket's tight trader consensus with Flávio edging Lula at 40.6% to 39.5%. Lula's approval has fallen to 44% against 51% disapproval amid economic headwinds and policy debates, fueling Flávio's surge as the leading right-wing challenger endorsed by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. A fragmented field with no other candidate above 6% keeps the race competitive; separation could arise from party conventions by August, economic data releases, or scandals before the likely runoff on October 25.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$53,673,357
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, CNT/MDA, and Quaest show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva statistically tied or within margin of error—46% apiece in some second-round simulations—for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election, mirroring Polymarket's tight trader consensus with Flávio edging Lula at 40.6% to 39.5%. Lula's approval has fallen to 44% against 51% disapproval amid economic headwinds and policy debates, fueling Flávio's surge as the leading right-wing challenger endorsed by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. A fragmented field with no other candidate above 6% keeps the race competitive; separation could arise from party conventions by August, economic data releases, or scandals before the likely runoff on October 25.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$53,673,357
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 15 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 41%, diikuti oleh "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 40%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 41¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 41% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" telah menghasilkan $53.7 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Sep 18, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil," jelajahi 15 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 41%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 41% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 40%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.