Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a fragmented right-wing field ahead of Israel’s October 27 election. Recent Midgam and Kantar polls place the party at roughly four Knesset seats, just clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold, though earlier surveys showed it below the line and small-party results remain volatile. Its independent run draws potential support from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters while facing warnings from Netanyahu and Smotrich about vote-splitting that could weaken the overall right bloc. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the highest probability to outcomes below or near the threshold, consistent with historical challenges for new lists and ongoing polling uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui3.25-4% 30%
<2.5% 28%
5%+ 15%
2.5-3.25% 14%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
45%
2.5-3.25%
14%
3.25-4%
30%
4-5%
19%
5%+
15%
3.25-4% 30%
<2.5% 28%
5%+ 15%
2.5-3.25% 14%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$20 Vol.
45%
2.5-3.25%
$0 Vol.
14%
3.25-4%
$38 Vol.
30%
4-5%
$13 Vol.
19%
5%+
$70 Vol.
15%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a fragmented right-wing field ahead of Israel’s October 27 election. Recent Midgam and Kantar polls place the party at roughly four Knesset seats, just clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold, though earlier surveys showed it below the line and small-party results remain volatile. Its independent run draws potential support from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters while facing warnings from Netanyahu and Smotrich about vote-splitting that could weaken the overall right bloc. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the highest probability to outcomes below or near the threshold, consistent with historical challenges for new lists and ongoing polling uncertainty.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$141Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a fragmented right-wing field ahead of Israel’s October 27 election. Recent Midgam and Kantar polls place the party at roughly four Knesset seats, just clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold, though earlier surveys showed it below the line and small-party results remain volatile. Its independent run draws potential support from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters while facing warnings from Netanyahu and Smotrich about vote-splitting that could weaken the overall right bloc. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the highest probability to outcomes below or near the threshold, consistent with historical challenges for new lists and ongoing polling uncertainty.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$141Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, competes in a fragmented right-wing field ahead of Israel’s October 27 election. Recent Midgam and Kantar polls place the party at roughly four Knesset seats, just clearing the 3.25% electoral threshold, though earlier surveys showed it below the line and small-party results remain volatile. Its independent run draws potential support from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters while facing warnings from Netanyahu and Smotrich about vote-splitting that could weaken the overall right bloc. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns the highest probability to outcomes below or near the threshold, consistent with historical challenges for new lists and ongoing polling uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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