Skip to main content

Untuk trading di AS, kunjungi polymarket.us

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?
Politik·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?
Politik·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?

35-40% 26%

30-35% 21%

50%+ 20%

45-50% 19%

Polymarket
BARU

35-40% 26%

30-35% 21%

50%+ 20%

45-50% 19%

Polymarket
BARU
icon for <30%

<30%

$27 Vol.

12%

icon for 30-35%

30-35%

$26 Vol.

26%

icon for 35-40%

35-40%

$37 Vol.

22%

icon for 40-45%

40-45%

$29 Vol.

18%

icon for 45-50%

45-50%

$6 Vol.

19%

icon for 50%+

50%+

$88 Vol.

20%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer’s former seat sits in a narrow band around 35-40% according to current trader pricing, reflecting a projected decline from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. The contest features Labour’s local candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, with recent Camden ward results from May 2026 showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. These figures, alongside demographic models projecting a low-40s Labour share under current national conditions, anchor expectations of a reduced but still leading performance for the governing party. Low overall turnout typical of by-elections, combined with the seat’s progressive voter base and limited campaigning time since nominations closed on 15 September, sustains the close contest between the 30-35% and 35-40% bands. Any late shifts in local turnout or differential mobilisation between Labour and Green supporters could widen or narrow the outcome.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$213
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer’s former seat sits in a narrow band around 35-40% according to current trader pricing, reflecting a projected decline from the 48.9% recorded in 2024. The contest features Labour’s local candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali against Green Party leader Zack Polanski, with recent Camden ward results from May 2026 showing Labour at 38.8% and the Greens at 28.8%. These figures, alongside demographic models projecting a low-40s Labour share under current national conditions, anchor expectations of a reduced but still leading performance for the governing party. Low overall turnout typical of by-elections, combined with the seat’s progressive voter base and limited campaigning time since nominations closed on 15 September, sustains the close contest between the 30-35% and 35-40% bands. Any late shifts in local turnout or differential mobilisation between Labour and Green supporters could widen or narrow the outcome.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$213
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Terkait

icon for Will the Green Party candidate win less than 20% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Will the Green Party candidate win less than 20% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

27%
icon for Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%?

Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 10-15%?

41%
icon for Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

77%

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 6 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "30-35%" di 26%, diikuti oleh "35-40%" di 22%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 26¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 26% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 14, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?," jelajahi 6 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" adalah "30-35%" di 26%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 26% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "35-40%" di 22%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.