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icon for Next UK by-election called by…?
Politik·UK

Next UK by-election called by…?

icon for Next UK by-election called by…?
Politik·UK

Next UK by-election called by…?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

October 31

$0 Vol.

32%

December 31

$0 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent UK by-elections have been triggered primarily by strategic MP resignations amid party leadership shifts and personal scrutiny. Josh Simons vacated Makerfield in May 2026 to enable Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament ahead of a Labour leadership challenge, while Nigel Farage resigned Clacton in July 2026 to seek re-election amid parliamentary inquiries into donations. Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation from Holborn and St Pancras, following his departure as prime minister, has set the next contest for October 8. The writ process, typically initiated by the relevant party whip within weeks of a vacancy, determines timing. Future triggers could stem from ongoing internal pressures, recalls, or further leadership maneuvers, though no additional vacancies have been confirmed as of mid-September.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent UK by-elections have been triggered primarily by strategic MP resignations amid party leadership shifts and personal scrutiny. Josh Simons vacated Makerfield in May 2026 to enable Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament ahead of a Labour leadership challenge, while Nigel Farage resigned Clacton in July 2026 to seek re-election amid parliamentary inquiries into donations. Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation from Holborn and St Pancras, following his departure as prime minister, has set the next contest for October 8. The writ process, typically initiated by the relevant party whip within weeks of a vacancy, determines timing. Future triggers could stem from ongoing internal pressures, recalls, or further leadership maneuvers, though no additional vacancies have been confirmed as of mid-September.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Next UK by-election called by…?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "December 31" di 44%, diikuti oleh "October 31" di 32%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 44¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 44% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Next UK by-election called by…?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 14, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Next UK by-election called by…?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Next UK by-election called by…?" adalah "December 31" di 44%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 44% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "October 31" di 32%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Next UK by-election called by…?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.