The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features a close contest for second place between Labour and the Greens. Trader pricing concentrates probability on a Green vote share of 25-35%, aligning with recent local election results where the party reached 28.8% across relevant Camden wards and current projections placing it near 32-33%. Zack Polanski’s candidacy as Green leader, combined with momentum from council gains and endorsements from left-leaning independents, has sustained this positioning, while Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali benefits from established local organization and historical dominance in the seat. Lower probabilities for shares above 35% or below 25% reflect uncertainty over by-election turnout, national Labour trends under new leadership, and the extent of progressive vote consolidation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui25-30% 29%
30-35% 25%
20-25% 22%
<20% 19%
BARU
BARU
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
16%
20-25%
22%
25-30%
29%
30-35%
25%
35-40%
10%
40%+
7%
25-30% 29%
30-35% 25%
20-25% 22%
<20% 19%
BARU
BARU
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
$349 Vol.
16%
20-25%
$114 Vol.
22%
25-30%
$273 Vol.
29%
30-35%
$132 Vol.
25%
35-40%
$113 Vol.
10%
40%+
$120 Vol.
7%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features a close contest for second place between Labour and the Greens. Trader pricing concentrates probability on a Green vote share of 25-35%, aligning with recent local election results where the party reached 28.8% across relevant Camden wards and current projections placing it near 32-33%. Zack Polanski’s candidacy as Green leader, combined with momentum from council gains and endorsements from left-leaning independents, has sustained this positioning, while Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali benefits from established local organization and historical dominance in the seat. Lower probabilities for shares above 35% or below 25% reflect uncertainty over by-election turnout, national Labour trends under new leadership, and the extent of progressive vote consolidation.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,103Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features a close contest for second place between Labour and the Greens. Trader pricing concentrates probability on a Green vote share of 25-35%, aligning with recent local election results where the party reached 28.8% across relevant Camden wards and current projections placing it near 32-33%. Zack Polanski’s candidacy as Green leader, combined with momentum from council gains and endorsements from left-leaning independents, has sustained this positioning, while Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali benefits from established local organization and historical dominance in the seat. Lower probabilities for shares above 35% or below 25% reflect uncertainty over by-election turnout, national Labour trends under new leadership, and the extent of progressive vote consolidation.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$1,103Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features a close contest for second place between Labour and the Greens. Trader pricing concentrates probability on a Green vote share of 25-35%, aligning with recent local election results where the party reached 28.8% across relevant Camden wards and current projections placing it near 32-33%. Zack Polanski’s candidacy as Green leader, combined with momentum from council gains and endorsements from left-leaning independents, has sustained this positioning, while Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali benefits from established local organization and historical dominance in the seat. Lower probabilities for shares above 35% or below 25% reflect uncertainty over by-election turnout, national Labour trends under new leadership, and the extent of progressive vote consolidation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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