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Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Pemenang Pemilu Negara Bagian Berlin

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Politik·Pemilihan Umum Global

Pemenang Pemilu Negara Bagian Berlin

CDU 57%

Grüne 15.3%

Linke 12%

AfD 9.7%

Polymarket

$2,573,802 Vol.

CDU 57%

Grüne 15.3%

Linke 12%

AfD 9.7%

Polymarket

$2,573,802 Vol.

Apakah CDU akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan negara bagian Berlin 2026? icon

CDU

$15,416 Vol.

57%

Apakah Grüne akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan negara bagian Berlin 2026? icon

Grüne

$27,955 Vol.

15%

Apakah Linke akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan negara bagian Berlin 2026? icon

Linke

$11,660 Vol.

12%

Apakah AfD akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilu negara bagian Berlin 2026? icon

AfD

$2,187,456 Vol.

10%

Apakah SPD akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan negara bagian Berlin 2026? icon

SPD

$287,435 Vol.

7%

Apakah BSW akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan negara bagian Berlin 2026? icon

BSW

$26,369 Vol.

1%

Apakah FDP akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan negara bagian Berlin 2026? icon

FDP

$10,379 Vol.

<1%

Apakah FW akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan negara bagian Berlin 2026? icon

FW

$7,131 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus favors the CDU with 57.5% implied probability as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by its consistent polling edge in the fragmented field. The latest INSA survey through April 14 shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, and Grüne and Die Linke at 15% each, with BSW at 4%, FDP at 3%, and others at 8%. This maintains CDU's incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner despite a slight recent dip from 22-23%, as opposition remains split without a clear challenger surging. The current CDU-SPD coalition projects below majority, signaling likely three-party coalitions post-election, but stable Sonntagsfragen reinforce CDU's position as top vote-getter.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$2,573,802
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/) Trader consensus favors the CDU with 57.5% implied probability as the leading party in the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, driven by its consistent polling edge in the fragmented field. The latest INSA survey through April 14 shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD tied at 17%, and Grüne and Die Linke at 15% each, with BSW at 4%, FDP at 3%, and others at 8%. This maintains CDU's incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner despite a slight recent dip from 22-23%, as opposition remains split without a clear challenger surging. The current CDU-SPD coalition projects below majority, signaling likely three-party coalitions post-election, but stable Sonntagsfragen reinforce CDU's position as top vote-getter.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$2,573,802
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemenang Pemilu Negara Bagian Berlin" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 8 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "CDU" di 57%, diikuti oleh "Grüne" di 15%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 57¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 57% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemenang Pemilu Negara Bagian Berlin" telah menghasilkan $2.6 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Dec 2, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemenang Pemilu Negara Bagian Berlin," jelajahi 8 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemenang Pemilu Negara Bagian Berlin" adalah "CDU" di 57%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 57% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Grüne" di 15%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemenang Pemilu Negara Bagian Berlin" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.