Recent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied near 30% support each, with minor parties such as the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and The Opportunities Party holding the balance under the MMP system for coalition formation. Traders assign Labour a modest edge in implied probability, reflecting scattered recent surveys showing the opposition bloc competitive or ahead in seat projections ahead of the 7 November election, alongside National's occasional slips below 30% amid coalition partner volatility. Key variables include turnout among swing voters, final coalition negotiations, and any late shifts in preferred prime minister ratings between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon. The race remains highly sensitive to the next several weeks of campaign developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNew Zealand legislative election winner?
New Zealand legislative election winner?
Labour Party 56%
National Party 44%
Green Party <1%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$59,687 Vol.
$59,687 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
National Party
44%
Labour Party
56%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
New Zealand First Party
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party 56%
National Party 44%
Green Party <1%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$59,687 Vol.
$59,687 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
National Party
$24,334 Vol.
44%
Labour Party
$19,161 Vol.
56%
Green Party
$4,208 Vol.
<1%
ACT New Zealand
$4,166 Vol.
<1%
New Zealand First Party
$3,571 Vol.
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
$4,245 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied near 30% support each, with minor parties such as the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and The Opportunities Party holding the balance under the MMP system for coalition formation. Traders assign Labour a modest edge in implied probability, reflecting scattered recent surveys showing the opposition bloc competitive or ahead in seat projections ahead of the 7 November election, alongside National's occasional slips below 30% amid coalition partner volatility. Key variables include turnout among swing voters, final coalition negotiations, and any late shifts in preferred prime minister ratings between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon. The race remains highly sensitive to the next several weeks of campaign developments.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$59,687Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied near 30% support each, with minor parties such as the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and The Opportunities Party holding the balance under the MMP system for coalition formation. Traders assign Labour a modest edge in implied probability, reflecting scattered recent surveys showing the opposition bloc competitive or ahead in seat projections ahead of the 7 November election, alongside National's occasional slips below 30% amid coalition partner volatility. Key variables include turnout among swing voters, final coalition negotiations, and any late shifts in preferred prime minister ratings between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon. The race remains highly sensitive to the next several weeks of campaign developments.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$59,687Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied near 30% support each, with minor parties such as the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and The Opportunities Party holding the balance under the MMP system for coalition formation. Traders assign Labour a modest edge in implied probability, reflecting scattered recent surveys showing the opposition bloc competitive or ahead in seat projections ahead of the 7 November election, alongside National's occasional slips below 30% amid coalition partner volatility. Key variables include turnout among swing voters, final coalition negotiations, and any late shifts in preferred prime minister ratings between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon. The race remains highly sensitive to the next several weeks of campaign developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
37%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
54%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan