Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiOregon Senate Election: Turnout
Oregon Senate Election: Turnout
1.6M-1.7M 44%
1.5M-1.6M 44%
1.8M-1.9M 44%
2.1M-2.2M 44%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
<1.5M
43%
1.5M-1.6M
44%
1.6M-1.7M
44%
1.7M-1.8M
43%
1.8M-1.9M
44%
1.9M-2M
41%
2M-2.1M
43%
2.1M-2.2M
44%
2.2M+
43%
1.6M-1.7M 44%
1.5M-1.6M 44%
1.8M-1.9M 44%
2.1M-2.2M 44%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
<1.5M
$0 Vol.
43%
1.5M-1.6M
$0 Vol.
44%
1.6M-1.7M
$0 Vol.
44%
1.7M-1.8M
$0 Vol.
43%
1.8M-1.9M
$0 Vol.
44%
1.9M-2M
$0 Vol.
41%
2M-2.1M
$0 Vol.
43%
2.1M-2.2M
$0 Vol.
44%
2.2M+
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest pits incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley against Republican David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting partisan mobilization compared with battlegrounds. Voter turnout expectations therefore rest on Oregon's all-mail system, which historically drives strong participation, recent record primary turnout exceeding 1.28 million ballots, and broader midterm patterns influenced by economic conditions or national sentiment. With no general-election polling yet available and the seat unlikely to flip, trader probabilities cluster tightly across 1.6M–2.1M vote bins because baseline eligible-voter participation rates produce overlapping outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as shifts in statewide ballot measures, candidate visibility, or Election Day weather could widen separation by altering overall engagement.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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