Recent March CPI data showing 3.3% year-over-year inflation—up sharply from February's 2.4%—has fueled trader caution on the Federal Reserve's path, with the March FOMC holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and dot plot median steady at 3.4% for year-end 2026, fragmenting Polymarket sentiment for S&P 500's December close. Implied probabilities cluster tightly, <$6,000 at 31.5% edging $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, as the index's record 7,126 level reflects Q1 earnings optimism (consensus 12-19% growth) but valuations strain amid sticky prices and limited rate relief. Key differentiators include earnings beats versus policy surprises at the April 29 FOMC, with revenue trends and Treasury yields pivotal for breaking the deadlock.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
$6,000-$6,500 12%
$19,167 Vol.
$19,167 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
19%
$6,500-$7,000
16%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
12%
>$8,000
11%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
$6,000-$6,500 12%
$19,167 Vol.
$19,167 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,576 Vol.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 Vol.
19%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,869 Vol.
16%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 Vol.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 Vol.
12%
>$8,000
$1,794 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent March CPI data showing 3.3% year-over-year inflation—up sharply from February's 2.4%—has fueled trader caution on the Federal Reserve's path, with the March FOMC holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and dot plot median steady at 3.4% for year-end 2026, fragmenting Polymarket sentiment for S&P 500's December close. Implied probabilities cluster tightly, <$6,000 at 31.5% edging $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, as the index's record 7,126 level reflects Q1 earnings optimism (consensus 12-19% growth) but valuations strain amid sticky prices and limited rate relief. Key differentiators include earnings beats versus policy surprises at the April 29 FOMC, with revenue trends and Treasury yields pivotal for breaking the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$19,167Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Recent March CPI data showing 3.3% year-over-year inflation—up sharply from February's 2.4%—has fueled trader caution on the Federal Reserve's path, with the March FOMC holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and dot plot median steady at 3.4% for year-end 2026, fragmenting Polymarket sentiment for S&P 500's December close. Implied probabilities cluster tightly, <$6,000 at 31.5% edging $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, as the index's record 7,126 level reflects Q1 earnings optimism (consensus 12-19% growth) but valuations strain amid sticky prices and limited rate relief. Key differentiators include earnings beats versus policy surprises at the April 29 FOMC, with revenue trends and Treasury yields pivotal for breaking the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$19,167Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent March CPI data showing 3.3% year-over-year inflation—up sharply from February's 2.4%—has fueled trader caution on the Federal Reserve's path, with the March FOMC holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and dot plot median steady at 3.4% for year-end 2026, fragmenting Polymarket sentiment for S&P 500's December close. Implied probabilities cluster tightly, <$6,000 at 31.5% edging $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, as the index's record 7,126 level reflects Q1 earnings optimism (consensus 12-19% growth) but valuations strain amid sticky prices and limited rate relief. Key differentiators include earnings beats versus policy surprises at the April 29 FOMC, with revenue trends and Treasury yields pivotal for breaking the deadlock.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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