**Relegation in the 2026 Uruguayan Primera División (Liga AUF Uruguaya) is decided by the lowest average points per game across the 2025 and 2026 seasons combined, with the three weakest teams dropping to the Segunda División.** This two-year averaging system heavily penalizes clubs with weak prior-year results or limited 2025 data (such as the three promoted sides: Albion, Central Español, and Deportivo Maldonado). As of mid-September 2026 (Clausura phase ongoing), Progreso sits at the bottom of the relegation table with a 0.953 average (39 points in 2025 + 22 in 2026 over 64 matches), followed by Danubio at 1.047 (43 + 24) and Montevideo Wanderers at 1.138 (31 + 43). Cerro (1.156) and Albion (1.259, 2026-only) are also vulnerable, while stronger 2026 performers like Racing and Peñarol sit comfortably higher. Recent Clausura form has seen Progreso and Danubio struggle for results and goals, while Wanderers have shown improvement but cannot fully offset their low 2025 baseline. The promoted clubs' shorter 2025 records create volatility in the averages, and remaining fixtures through the Clausura and any playoff implications will determine final positions. Trader consensus reflects these structural and performance factors in the implied probabilities.