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Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

icon for Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?

52% peluang
Polymarket

$12,038 Vol.

52% peluang
Polymarket

$12,038 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte. The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened July 6, 2026, remains closely balanced because conviction requires 16 affirmative votes from all 24 senator-judges on at least one article. Senate alignments include a Duterte-aligned bloc that complicates reaching the two-thirds threshold, while the Marcos-aligned House prosecution has presented evidence on alleged confidential-fund misuse, unexplained wealth, DepEd procurement issues, and threats against the president. Ongoing hearings through September 2026 continue to feature documentary records, tax disclosures authorized by President Marcos, and witness testimony, with the defense emphasizing procedural challenges and political motivation. Trader consensus near 50 percent reflects uncertainty over whether additional evidence or cross-aisle shifts will secure the required majority before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, versus acquittal if alliances hold or the prosecution falls short on clear and convincing proof. Key tipping factors include compelling new testimony on specific articles, Senate procedural rulings, or changes in senator participation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.

The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$12,038
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte. The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte. The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened July 6, 2026, remains closely balanced because conviction requires 16 affirmative votes from all 24 senator-judges on at least one article. Senate alignments include a Duterte-aligned bloc that complicates reaching the two-thirds threshold, while the Marcos-aligned House prosecution has presented evidence on alleged confidential-fund misuse, unexplained wealth, DepEd procurement issues, and threats against the president. Ongoing hearings through September 2026 continue to feature documentary records, tax disclosures authorized by President Marcos, and witness testimony, with the defense emphasizing procedural challenges and political motivation. Trader consensus near 50 percent reflects uncertainty over whether additional evidence or cross-aisle shifts will secure the required majority before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, versus acquittal if alliances hold or the prosecution falls short on clear and convincing proof. Key tipping factors include compelling new testimony on specific articles, Senate procedural rulings, or changes in senator participation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.

The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$12,038
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte. The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 52% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 52¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 52% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?" telah menghasilkan $12K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada May 21, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?" adalah 52% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 52% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.