The tight clustering of probabilities around 2.2M–3.2M votes in the Wisconsin governor race reflects uncertainty over midterm turnout in a competitive open-seat contest. David Crowley's narrow Democratic primary win and Tom Tiffany's Republican nomination have produced early polls showing a close general election matchup, prompting both campaigns to launch significant ad spending and voter mobilization. Wisconsin's history of elevated participation—second-highest nationally in 2024—combined with recent Democratic primary turnout exceeding 790,000 ballots supports trader focus on strong engagement, yet midterm base rates and variables such as weather, early voting patterns, and national political climate keep ranges tightly bunched. Scheduled debates and fall ground efforts could shift these implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWisconsin Governor Election: Turnout
Wisconsin Governor Election: Turnout
2.4M-2.6M 45%
2.8M-3M 45%
3M-3.2M 45%
2.2M-2.4M 44%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
<2.2M
44%
2.2M-2.4M
44%
2.4M-2.6M
45%
2.6M-2.8M
43%
2.8M-3M
45%
3M-3.2M
45%
3.2M+
41%
2.4M-2.6M 45%
2.8M-3M 45%
3M-3.2M 45%
2.2M-2.4M 44%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
<2.2M
$0 Vol.
44%
2.2M-2.4M
$0 Vol.
44%
2.4M-2.6M
$0 Vol.
45%
2.6M-2.8M
$0 Vol.
43%
2.8M-3M
$0 Vol.
45%
3M-3.2M
$0 Vol.
45%
3.2M+
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of probabilities around 2.2M–3.2M votes in the Wisconsin governor race reflects uncertainty over midterm turnout in a competitive open-seat contest. David Crowley's narrow Democratic primary win and Tom Tiffany's Republican nomination have produced early polls showing a close general election matchup, prompting both campaigns to launch significant ad spending and voter mobilization. Wisconsin's history of elevated participation—second-highest nationally in 2024—combined with recent Democratic primary turnout exceeding 790,000 ballots supports trader focus on strong engagement, yet midterm base rates and variables such as weather, early voting patterns, and national political climate keep ranges tightly bunched. Scheduled debates and fall ground efforts could shift these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of probabilities around 2.2M–3.2M votes in the Wisconsin governor race reflects uncertainty over midterm turnout in a competitive open-seat contest. David Crowley's narrow Democratic primary win and Tom Tiffany's Republican nomination have produced early polls showing a close general election matchup, prompting both campaigns to launch significant ad spending and voter mobilization. Wisconsin's history of elevated participation—second-highest nationally in 2024—combined with recent Democratic primary turnout exceeding 790,000 ballots supports trader focus on strong engagement, yet midterm base rates and variables such as weather, early voting patterns, and national political climate keep ranges tightly bunched. Scheduled debates and fall ground efforts could shift these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Wisconsin, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of probabilities around 2.2M–3.2M votes in the Wisconsin governor race reflects uncertainty over midterm turnout in a competitive open-seat contest. David Crowley's narrow Democratic primary win and Tom Tiffany's Republican nomination have produced early polls showing a close general election matchup, prompting both campaigns to launch significant ad spending and voter mobilization. Wisconsin's history of elevated participation—second-highest nationally in 2024—combined with recent Democratic primary turnout exceeding 790,000 ballots supports trader focus on strong engagement, yet midterm base rates and variables such as weather, early voting patterns, and national political climate keep ranges tightly bunched. Scheduled debates and fall ground efforts could shift these implied probabilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be less than 4,000,000?
46%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 11,500,000 and 12,000,000?
43%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,150,000 and 2,300,000?
43%
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan