Netherlands enter as group favorites on the back of an undefeated qualifying campaign and squad depth featuring Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, and Memphis Depay, though Ronald Koeman’s side showed vulnerability in a 2-2 opening draw against Japan. Sweden’s 5-1 rout of Tunisia, powered by Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres, and Yasin Ayari’s brace under Graham Potter, has boosted their momentum and kept them level with Japan in trader pricing. Japan earned respect with a resilient late equalizer in Arlington, underscoring their organization and counter-attacking threat, while Tunisia’s heavy defeat leaves them with minimal implied probability. The tight 44.5/28.5/28.5 split reflects a competitive group where recent results and remaining fixtures against each other will decide advancement.