Trader consensus reflects a 94% implied probability that freestyle skier Eileen Gu's U.S. citizenship will not be officially revoked by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any formal proceedings from the U.S. State Department or relevant authorities despite recent controversy. Following her silver medals for China at the February 2026 Milan-Cortina Olympics—her third Games under the Chinese flag—public backlash intensified, including comments from Vice President JD Vance questioning her status, social media campaigns, and a Change.org petition urging clarification or revocation. However, no evidence shows Gu on quarterly federal expatriation lists, and revoking birthright citizenship demands rare legal grounds like fraud, with U.S. policy recognizing dual nationality. Absent official action or new catalysts, traders anticipate status quo through year-end resolution.