Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta ad Ankara il 3 maggio?
9°C o superiore 100.0%
-1°C o inferiore <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$64,791 Vol.
$64,791 Vol.
-1°C o inferiore
No
0°C
No
1°C
No
2°C
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C o superiore
Sì
9°C o superiore 100.0%
-1°C o inferiore <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$64,791 Vol.
$64,791 Vol.
-1°C o inferiore
No
0°C
No
1°C
No
2°C
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C o superiore
Sì
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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