Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Austin il 15 luglio?
La temperatura più alta di Austin il 15 luglio?
80-81°F 39%
78-79°F 25%
82-83°F 18%
84-85°F 11%
NUOVO
$10,690 Vol.
NUOVO
$10,690 Vol.
15 lug 2026
75°F o inferiore
2%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
25%
80-81°F
39%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F o superiore
<1%
80-81°F 39%
78-79°F 25%
82-83°F 18%
84-85°F 11%
NUOVO
$10,690 Vol.
NUOVO
$10,690 Vol.
15 lug 2026
75°F o inferiore
$28 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$43 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$573 Vol.
25%
80-81°F
$451 Vol.
39%
82-83°F
$394 Vol.
18%
84-85°F
$690 Vol.
11%
86-87°F
$172 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$1,383 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$2,883 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$2,168 Vol.
<1%
94°F o superiore
$1,905 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Volume
$10,690Data di fine
15 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,690Data di fine
15 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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