Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 18, with ensemble spreads pitting persistent low-level stratus clouds—lingering from April 16's overcast 23°C high—against partial clearing and warm air advection expected on April 17 (China Meteorological Administration forecast: 30°C high, cloudy). This bimodal sentiment ties implied probabilities at 35.5% for both 23°C and 31°C, as GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on cloud cover dissipation in the humid Sichuan Basin, where inversions often cap spring highs near historical April averages of 22–25°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary timing and subsidence strength; watch CMA updates and satellite moisture imagery for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 18?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 18?
23°C 36%
31°C 36%
32°C or higher 26%
26°C 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 apr 2026
22°C or below
3%
23°C
36%
24°C
16%
25°C
19%
26°C
20%
27°C
20%
28°C
20%
29°C
19%
30°C
16%
31°C
36%
32°C or higher
26%
23°C 36%
31°C 36%
32°C or higher 26%
26°C 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 apr 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
36%
24°C
$0 Vol.
16%
25°C
$0 Vol.
19%
26°C
$0 Vol.
20%
27°C
$0 Vol.
20%
28°C
$0 Vol.
20%
29°C
$0 Vol.
19%
30°C
$0 Vol.
16%
31°C
$0 Vol.
36%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 18, with ensemble spreads pitting persistent low-level stratus clouds—lingering from April 16's overcast 23°C high—against partial clearing and warm air advection expected on April 17 (China Meteorological Administration forecast: 30°C high, cloudy). This bimodal sentiment ties implied probabilities at 35.5% for both 23°C and 31°C, as GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on cloud cover dissipation in the humid Sichuan Basin, where inversions often cap spring highs near historical April averages of 22–25°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary timing and subsidence strength; watch CMA updates and satellite moisture imagery for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 18, with ensemble spreads pitting persistent low-level stratus clouds—lingering from April 16's overcast 23°C high—against partial clearing and warm air advection expected on April 17 (China Meteorological Administration forecast: 30°C high, cloudy). This bimodal sentiment ties implied probabilities at 35.5% for both 23°C and 31°C, as GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on cloud cover dissipation in the humid Sichuan Basin, where inversions often cap spring highs near historical April averages of 22–25°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary timing and subsidence strength; watch CMA updates and satellite moisture imagery for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$0Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Chengdu's highest temperature on April 18, with ensemble spreads pitting persistent low-level stratus clouds—lingering from April 16's overcast 23°C high—against partial clearing and warm air advection expected on April 17 (China Meteorological Administration forecast: 30°C high, cloudy). This bimodal sentiment ties implied probabilities at 35.5% for both 23°C and 31°C, as GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on cloud cover dissipation in the humid Sichuan Basin, where inversions often cap spring highs near historical April averages of 22–25°C. Key differentiators include frontal boundary timing and subsidence strength; watch CMA updates and satellite moisture imagery for resolution shifts ahead of the event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti