Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s July 23 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty driven by the interplay between subtropical high pressure and incoming tropical moisture. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal July temperatures aligns with typical summer solar heating and humidity levels that support afternoon peaks near 32°C, yet model runs diverge on the timing and extent of cloud cover and showers that can suppress daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent strengthening of a high-pressure ridge has favored clearer conditions and stronger insolation in prior days, boosting probabilities for the upper end of the range, while South China Sea convection introduces variable moisture that favors the lower outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional model ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely resolve these differences ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 23 luglio?
La temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 23 luglio?
33°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$270,342 Vol.
$270,342 Vol.
23 lug 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$270,342 Vol.
$270,342 Vol.
23 lug 2026
26°C or below
$10,382 Vol.
No
27°C
$320 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,126 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,158 Vol.
No
30°C
$15,085 Vol.
No
31°C
$44,198 Vol.
No
32°C
$52,516 Vol.
No
33°C
$54,803 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$47,298 Vol.
No
35°C
$26,741 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$14,714 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s July 23 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty driven by the interplay between subtropical high pressure and incoming tropical moisture. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal July temperatures aligns with typical summer solar heating and humidity levels that support afternoon peaks near 32°C, yet model runs diverge on the timing and extent of cloud cover and showers that can suppress daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent strengthening of a high-pressure ridge has favored clearer conditions and stronger insolation in prior days, boosting probabilities for the upper end of the range, while South China Sea convection introduces variable moisture that favors the lower outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional model ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely resolve these differences ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$270,342Data di fine
23 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s July 23 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty driven by the interplay between subtropical high pressure and incoming tropical moisture. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal July temperatures aligns with typical summer solar heating and humidity levels that support afternoon peaks near 32°C, yet model runs diverge on the timing and extent of cloud cover and showers that can suppress daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent strengthening of a high-pressure ridge has favored clearer conditions and stronger insolation in prior days, boosting probabilities for the upper end of the range, while South China Sea convection introduces variable moisture that favors the lower outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional model ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely resolve these differences ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$270,342Data di fine
23 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s July 23 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty driven by the interplay between subtropical high pressure and incoming tropical moisture. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal July temperatures aligns with typical summer solar heating and humidity levels that support afternoon peaks near 32°C, yet model runs diverge on the timing and extent of cloud cover and showers that can suppress daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent strengthening of a high-pressure ridge has favored clearer conditions and stronger insolation in prior days, boosting probabilities for the upper end of the range, while South China Sea convection introduces variable moisture that favors the lower outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional model ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely resolve these differences ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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