Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on April 29, driven by official forecasts from AccuWeather, Weather.com, and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional projecting daytime highs of 31–34°C (88–93°F) under persistent high-pressure systems and clear skies. Recent observations at Benito Juárez International Airport confirm this heatwave pattern, with temperatures hovering at 30–32°C over the past week amid seasonal dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, far exceeding April climatological averages of ~26°C. While model consensus is robust, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorms or measurement discrepancies at official stations, though low-probability precipitation forecasts (under 5%) reinforce the near-certainty as the day progresses toward peak heating around 2–4 PM local time.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 29?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 29?
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$63,073 Vol.
$63,073 Vol.
29 apr 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
Yes
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$63,073 Vol.
$63,073 Vol.
29 apr 2026
15°C or below
$4,180 Vol.
No
16°C
$4,648 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,064 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,040 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,044 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,749 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,663 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,926 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,322 Vol.
No
24°C
$10,168 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$24,270 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on April 29, driven by official forecasts from AccuWeather, Weather.com, and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional projecting daytime highs of 31–34°C (88–93°F) under persistent high-pressure systems and clear skies. Recent observations at Benito Juárez International Airport confirm this heatwave pattern, with temperatures hovering at 30–32°C over the past week amid seasonal dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, far exceeding April climatological averages of ~26°C. While model consensus is robust, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorms or measurement discrepancies at official stations, though low-probability precipitation forecasts (under 5%) reinforce the near-certainty as the day progresses toward peak heating around 2–4 PM local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$63,073Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on April 29, driven by official forecasts from AccuWeather, Weather.com, and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional projecting daytime highs of 31–34°C (88–93°F) under persistent high-pressure systems and clear skies. Recent observations at Benito Juárez International Airport confirm this heatwave pattern, with temperatures hovering at 30–32°C over the past week amid seasonal dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, far exceeding April climatological averages of ~26°C. While model consensus is robust, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorms or measurement discrepancies at official stations, though low-probability precipitation forecasts (under 5%) reinforce the near-certainty as the day progresses toward peak heating around 2–4 PM local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$63,073Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 12:13 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Mexico City's highest temperature reaching 25°C or higher on April 29, driven by official forecasts from AccuWeather, Weather.com, and Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional projecting daytime highs of 31–34°C (88–93°F) under persistent high-pressure systems and clear skies. Recent observations at Benito Juárez International Airport confirm this heatwave pattern, with temperatures hovering at 30–32°C over the past week amid seasonal dry conditions and minimal cloud cover, far exceeding April climatological averages of ~26°C. While model consensus is robust, realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon thunderstorms or measurement discrepancies at official stations, though low-probability precipitation forecasts (under 5%) reinforce the near-certainty as the day progresses toward peak heating around 2–4 PM local time.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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