Recent geopolitical tensions in West Asia have driven energy and fertilizer costs higher, lifting India's May 2026 CPI inflation to 3.93% from 3.48% in April and prompting the RBI to raise its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% while holding the repo rate at 5.25%. These supply-side pressures, alongside monsoon and global commodity risks, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 67.5% implied probability for 4.50%+ annual inflation. The Reserve Bank's neutral stance and focus on second-round effects position the outcome above the 4% target midpoint, consistent with current momentum and analyst projections around 4.0-5.1%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4,50%+ 66%
1,50% a 2,24% 21.6%
3,75% a 4,49% 14.8%
3,00% - 3,74% 11.8%
$61,716 Vol.
$61,716 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<0,75%
5%
0,75% a 1,49%
1%
1,50% a 2,24%
22%
2,25% a 2,99%
2%
3,00% - 3,74%
21%
3,75% a 4,49%
15%
4,50%+
66%
4,50%+ 66%
1,50% a 2,24% 21.6%
3,75% a 4,49% 14.8%
3,00% - 3,74% 11.8%
$61,716 Vol.
$61,716 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<0,75%
$838 Vol.
5%
0,75% a 1,49%
$558 Vol.
1%
1,50% a 2,24%
$447 Vol.
22%
2,25% a 2,99%
$24,140 Vol.
2%
3,00% - 3,74%
$768 Vol.
21%
3,75% a 4,49%
$23,426 Vol.
15%
4,50%+
$11,538 Vol.
66%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent geopolitical tensions in West Asia have driven energy and fertilizer costs higher, lifting India's May 2026 CPI inflation to 3.93% from 3.48% in April and prompting the RBI to raise its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% while holding the repo rate at 5.25%. These supply-side pressures, alongside monsoon and global commodity risks, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 67.5% implied probability for 4.50%+ annual inflation. The Reserve Bank's neutral stance and focus on second-round effects position the outcome above the 4% target midpoint, consistent with current momentum and analyst projections around 4.0-5.1%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$61,716Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent geopolitical tensions in West Asia have driven energy and fertilizer costs higher, lifting India's May 2026 CPI inflation to 3.93% from 3.48% in April and prompting the RBI to raise its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% while holding the repo rate at 5.25%. These supply-side pressures, alongside monsoon and global commodity risks, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 67.5% implied probability for 4.50%+ annual inflation. The Reserve Bank's neutral stance and focus on second-round effects position the outcome above the 4% target midpoint, consistent with current momentum and analyst projections around 4.0-5.1%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$61,716Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in West Asia have driven energy and fertilizer costs higher, lifting India's May 2026 CPI inflation to 3.93% from 3.48% in April and prompting the RBI to raise its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% while holding the repo rate at 5.25%. These supply-side pressures, alongside monsoon and global commodity risks, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 67.5% implied probability for 4.50%+ annual inflation. The Reserve Bank's neutral stance and focus on second-round effects position the outcome above the 4% target midpoint, consistent with current momentum and analyst projections around 4.0-5.1%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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