Recent polling averages place Likud at 20–23 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, well below its 32 seats in the outgoing legislature, while challenger Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot leads with 23–25. Multiple surveys show the Netanyahu-led coalition bloc holding 50–53 mandates, short of the 61-seat majority threshold, as support fragments toward newer right-wing lists and opposition parties. Party-list submissions and recent surveys released after the September 8 deadline have reinforced this downward trend for Likud, with several polls recording its weakest readings since mid-2025 amid persistent coalition shortfalls and shifting voter preferences within the broader right-wing camp. Trader consensus on seat losses therefore reflects sustained polling evidence rather than any single event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato92% probabilità
$17,763 Vol.
$17,763 Vol.
26 ott 2026
92% probabilità
$17,763 Vol.
$17,763 Vol.
26 ott 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Likud at 20–23 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, well below its 32 seats in the outgoing legislature, while challenger Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot leads with 23–25. Multiple surveys show the Netanyahu-led coalition bloc holding 50–53 mandates, short of the 61-seat majority threshold, as support fragments toward newer right-wing lists and opposition parties. Party-list submissions and recent surveys released after the September 8 deadline have reinforced this downward trend for Likud, with several polls recording its weakest readings since mid-2025 amid persistent coalition shortfalls and shifting voter preferences within the broader right-wing camp. Trader consensus on seat losses therefore reflects sustained polling evidence rather than any single event.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$17,763Data di fine
27 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages place Likud at 20–23 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, well below its 32 seats in the outgoing legislature, while challenger Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot leads with 23–25. Multiple surveys show the Netanyahu-led coalition bloc holding 50–53 mandates, short of the 61-seat majority threshold, as support fragments toward newer right-wing lists and opposition parties. Party-list submissions and recent surveys released after the September 8 deadline have reinforced this downward trend for Likud, with several polls recording its weakest readings since mid-2025 amid persistent coalition shortfalls and shifting voter preferences within the broader right-wing camp. Trader consensus on seat losses therefore reflects sustained polling evidence rather than any single event.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$17,763Data di fine
27 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place Likud at 20–23 Knesset seats ahead of the October 27 election, well below its 32 seats in the outgoing legislature, while challenger Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot leads with 23–25. Multiple surveys show the Netanyahu-led coalition bloc holding 50–53 mandates, short of the 61-seat majority threshold, as support fragments toward newer right-wing lists and opposition parties. Party-list submissions and recent surveys released after the September 8 deadline have reinforced this downward trend for Likud, with several polls recording its weakest readings since mid-2025 amid persistent coalition shortfalls and shifting voter preferences within the broader right-wing camp. Trader consensus on seat losses therefore reflects sustained polling evidence rather than any single event.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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