Recent model consensus from European forecasting centers points to a minimum temperature near 21–22°C in Paris on August 4, driven by a persistent warm air mass under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow. This aligns closely with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C and modest support for 23°C or 21°C, while colder outcomes remain less favored given the absence of significant frontal passages or radiational cooling. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight lows of 15–18°C, but current seasonal warmth—following June’s record heat—has elevated baseline temperatures, with latest runs indicating limited overnight drop. Key upcoming updates from Météo-France and ECMWF model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of resolution.