Recent forecast model runs from European agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Paris for July 4–5, with low temperatures likely ranging 15–17°C depending on cloud cover and wind. Following June’s extreme heatwave, which elevated baseline soil and urban heat storage, current conditions favor moderate moderation rather than sharp drops, keeping the market tightly bunched around typical early-July climatology. Key variables include Atlantic flow strength and potential for clear skies enhancing cooling versus lingering moisture trapping heat, with ensemble spreads explaining the near-equal implied probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Updated Météo-France guidance expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds as the event window approaches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Parigi il 5 luglio?
La temperatura più bassa di Parigi il 5 luglio?
17°C 100.0%
14°C o inferiore <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$30,822 Vol.
$30,822 Vol.
5 lug 2026
14°C o inferiore
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Sì
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C o superiore
No
17°C 100.0%
14°C o inferiore <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$30,822 Vol.
$30,822 Vol.
5 lug 2026
14°C o inferiore
$3,182 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,633 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,674 Vol.
No
17°C
$6,276 Vol.
Sì
18°C
$2,152 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,384 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,324 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,544 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,392 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,579 Vol.
No
24°C o superiore
$2,681 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from European agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Paris for July 4–5, with low temperatures likely ranging 15–17°C depending on cloud cover and wind. Following June’s extreme heatwave, which elevated baseline soil and urban heat storage, current conditions favor moderate moderation rather than sharp drops, keeping the market tightly bunched around typical early-July climatology. Key variables include Atlantic flow strength and potential for clear skies enhancing cooling versus lingering moisture trapping heat, with ensemble spreads explaining the near-equal implied probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Updated Météo-France guidance expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$30,822Data di fine
5 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from European agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Paris for July 4–5, with low temperatures likely ranging 15–17°C depending on cloud cover and wind. Following June’s extreme heatwave, which elevated baseline soil and urban heat storage, current conditions favor moderate moderation rather than sharp drops, keeping the market tightly bunched around typical early-July climatology. Key variables include Atlantic flow strength and potential for clear skies enhancing cooling versus lingering moisture trapping heat, with ensemble spreads explaining the near-equal implied probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Updated Météo-France guidance expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,822Data di fine
5 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Recent forecast model runs from European agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Paris for July 4–5, with low temperatures likely ranging 15–17°C depending on cloud cover and wind. Following June’s extreme heatwave, which elevated baseline soil and urban heat storage, current conditions favor moderate moderation rather than sharp drops, keeping the market tightly bunched around typical early-July climatology. Key variables include Atlantic flow strength and potential for clear skies enhancing cooling versus lingering moisture trapping heat, with ensemble spreads explaining the near-equal implied probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Updated Météo-France guidance expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds as the event window approaches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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