Prime Minister Narendra Modi's entrenched leadership midway through his third Lok Sabha term, secured via the BJP-led NDA coalition's 2024 general election victory, drives the 90.7% implied probability that he remains in office beyond December 31, 2026. Recent milestones, including his record as India's longest-serving elected head of government at 8,931 days in March 2026 and active campaigning in ongoing state assembly elections across Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry, signal robust political stability and no snap election or no-confidence vote threats. Opposition claims of imminent exit, like those from Arvind Kejriwal in March, lack substantiation amid BJP unity and Modi's public dismissal of retirement talk to retiring Rajya Sabha members. Late-breaking coalition frictions or health developments could shift odds, but traders see minimal risk before the 2029 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoModi uscirà entro il 31 dicembre 2026?
Modi uscirà entro il 31 dicembre 2026?
Sì
$21,455 Vol.
$21,455 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$21,455 Vol.
$21,455 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Narendra Modi's entrenched leadership midway through his third Lok Sabha term, secured via the BJP-led NDA coalition's 2024 general election victory, drives the 90.7% implied probability that he remains in office beyond December 31, 2026. Recent milestones, including his record as India's longest-serving elected head of government at 8,931 days in March 2026 and active campaigning in ongoing state assembly elections across Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry, signal robust political stability and no snap election or no-confidence vote threats. Opposition claims of imminent exit, like those from Arvind Kejriwal in March, lack substantiation amid BJP unity and Modi's public dismissal of retirement talk to retiring Rajya Sabha members. Late-breaking coalition frictions or health developments could shift odds, but traders see minimal risk before the 2029 general election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$21,455Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Narendra Modi's entrenched leadership midway through his third Lok Sabha term, secured via the BJP-led NDA coalition's 2024 general election victory, drives the 90.7% implied probability that he remains in office beyond December 31, 2026. Recent milestones, including his record as India's longest-serving elected head of government at 8,931 days in March 2026 and active campaigning in ongoing state assembly elections across Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry, signal robust political stability and no snap election or no-confidence vote threats. Opposition claims of imminent exit, like those from Arvind Kejriwal in March, lack substantiation amid BJP unity and Modi's public dismissal of retirement talk to retiring Rajya Sabha members. Late-breaking coalition frictions or health developments could shift odds, but traders see minimal risk before the 2029 general election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Narendra Modi ceases to be Prime Minister of India for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Narendra Modi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Narendra Modi and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,455Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Prime Minister Narendra Modi's entrenched leadership midway through his third Lok Sabha term, secured via the BJP-led NDA coalition's 2024 general election victory, drives the 90.7% implied probability that he remains in office beyond December 31, 2026. Recent milestones, including his record as India's longest-serving elected head of government at 8,931 days in March 2026 and active campaigning in ongoing state assembly elections across Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Puducherry, signal robust political stability and no snap election or no-confidence vote threats. Opposition claims of imminent exit, like those from Arvind Kejriwal in March, lack substantiation amid BJP unity and Modi's public dismissal of retirement talk to retiring Rajya Sabha members. Late-breaking coalition frictions or health developments could shift odds, but traders see minimal risk before the 2029 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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