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Geopolitica·Pakistan

Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Pakistan

Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?

$30,938 Vol.

15 apr 2026
Polymarket

$30,938 Vol.

Polymarket

April 15

$4,749 Vol.

13%

April 30

$783 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating border tensions between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, fueled by cross-border attacks from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants allegedly sheltered in Afghanistan, prompted Pakistani airstrikes on Kabul in early-to-mid March 2026, including strikes on March 1, 13, and 16-17 targeting military installations amid disputed civilian casualty claims. A temporary Eid ceasefire on March 18 was followed by resumed operations on March 26, but de-escalation efforts advanced with bilateral talks hosted by China on April 2 aimed at ending hostilities. Traders monitor TTP activities, potential truce violations, and diplomatic progress, as renewed Taliban offensives or failed negotiations could trigger further strikes on Kabul before late April deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$30,938
Data di fine
15 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 11:06 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Escalating border tensions between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, fueled by cross-border attacks from Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants allegedly sheltered in Afghanistan, prompted Pakistani airstrikes on Kabul in early-to-mid March 2026, including strikes on March 1, 13, and 16-17 targeting military installations amid disputed civilian casualty claims. A temporary Eid ceasefire on March 18 was followed by resumed operations on March 26, but de-escalation efforts advanced with bilateral talks hosted by China on April 2 aimed at ending hostilities. Traders monitor TTP activities, potential truce violations, and diplomatic progress, as renewed Taliban offensives or failed negotiations could trigger further strikes on Kabul before late April deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$30,938
Data di fine
15 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 11:06 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates a drone, missile, or air strike within the municipality of Kabul by the specified date Afghanistan Time (GMT+4:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact within one of the 22 municipal districts of Kabul. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land within the municipality of Kabul or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Pakistani ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

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Domande frequenti

"Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 3 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "April 15" a 13%, seguito da "April 30" a 13%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 13¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 13% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?" ha generato $30.9K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 18, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?", esplora i 3 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?" è "April 15" a 13%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 13% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "April 30" a 13%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Pakistan military action against Kabul by...?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.