The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report and subsequent CBO update show the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund facing depletion in late 2032, one quarter sooner than prior estimates, while the combined OASDI funds are projected to last until 2034. This timeline stems from persistent cash-flow deficits driven by an aging population, lower fertility and immigration assumptions, and reduced revenue from the 2025 tax law changes on benefits. Ongoing shortfalls of roughly 4.4 percent of taxable payroll reflect costs exceeding payroll tax inflows since 2010, with reserves already declining. Without congressional action to adjust taxes or benefits, automatic reductions of 17-26 percent would follow depletion. Traders monitor any reform proposals or economic shifts that could alter these actuarial projections before the early 2030s.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoInsolvenza previdenziale da parte di...?
Insolvenza previdenziale da parte di...?
NUOVO
31 dic 2028
31 dicembre 2027
12%
31 dicembre 2028
17%
$929 Vol.
31 dicembre 2027
$884 Vol.
12%
31 dicembre 2028
$45 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report and subsequent CBO update show the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund facing depletion in late 2032, one quarter sooner than prior estimates, while the combined OASDI funds are projected to last until 2034. This timeline stems from persistent cash-flow deficits driven by an aging population, lower fertility and immigration assumptions, and reduced revenue from the 2025 tax law changes on benefits. Ongoing shortfalls of roughly 4.4 percent of taxable payroll reflect costs exceeding payroll tax inflows since 2010, with reserves already declining. Without congressional action to adjust taxes or benefits, automatic reductions of 17-26 percent would follow depletion. Traders monitor any reform proposals or economic shifts that could alter these actuarial projections before the early 2030s.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET
Volume
$929Data di fine
1 gen 2029Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report and subsequent CBO update show the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund facing depletion in late 2032, one quarter sooner than prior estimates, while the combined OASDI funds are projected to last until 2034. This timeline stems from persistent cash-flow deficits driven by an aging population, lower fertility and immigration assumptions, and reduced revenue from the 2025 tax law changes on benefits. Ongoing shortfalls of roughly 4.4 percent of taxable payroll reflect costs exceeding payroll tax inflows since 2010, with reserves already declining. Without congressional action to adjust taxes or benefits, automatic reductions of 17-26 percent would follow depletion. Traders monitor any reform proposals or economic shifts that could alter these actuarial projections before the early 2030s.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$929Data di fine
1 gen 2029Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report and subsequent CBO update show the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund facing depletion in late 2032, one quarter sooner than prior estimates, while the combined OASDI funds are projected to last until 2034. This timeline stems from persistent cash-flow deficits driven by an aging population, lower fertility and immigration assumptions, and reduced revenue from the 2025 tax law changes on benefits. Ongoing shortfalls of roughly 4.4 percent of taxable payroll reflect costs exceeding payroll tax inflows since 2010, with reserves already declining. Without congressional action to adjust taxes or benefits, automatic reductions of 17-26 percent would follow depletion. Traders monitor any reform proposals or economic shifts that could alter these actuarial projections before the early 2030s.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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