Keir Starmer faces sustained internal pressure within the Labour Party following heavy losses in the May 2026 local and devolved elections, which prompted more than 80 MPs to call for his resignation or a departure timetable. Cabinet minister Wes Streeting and several junior ministers resigned in protest amid scandals, policy reversals, and persistently low approval ratings near record negatives. Starmer has publicly rejected stepping down and stated he would contest any leadership challenge, yet the absence of a formal trigger has not eased speculation about an orderly exit. Traders weigh the risk of further electoral setbacks or party fractures against the structural barriers to an immediate removal, including Labour’s large parliamentary majority and the lack of an obvious successor consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLabour rebels plot to defeat Starmer over £5bn benefits cut, frontbench resigns
July 31 plunges to 23%27%
Labour MPs and ministers publicly opposed Starmer's welfare reforms, with resignations and rebellion increasing pressure on his leadership and causing market prices for earlier exit dates to drop sharply.
Labour MPs intensify calls for Starmer to set resignation timetable
June 15 plunges to 3%47%
Following poor election results and multiple resignations, Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer either resign or announce a departure timetable. This internal pressure contributed to a sharp decline in short-term resignation market prices, reflecting skepticism about an imminent exit.
Starmer vows to fight next election, refuses to set resignation timetable
December 31 rises to 74%1%
A Wandsworth Guardian piece reported Starmer’s vow to fight the next general election despite mounting pressure, which helped stabilize the “December 31” price at 74 % after it had been volatile earlier in May.
Senior Cabinet ministers rally around Starmer amid leadership crisis
December 31 dips to 71%2%
Despite the ongoing scandal and political pressure, senior Cabinet ministers publicly supported Starmer, helping stabilize his position and contributing to a partial recovery in the market probability for his staying until the end of 2026.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat, sparking party row
June 30 drops to 30%5%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election fueled internal party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges, affecting market confidence in Starmer’s near-term survival.
Wes Streeting speaks in Commons, emphasizing Labour’s struggle against nationalism
June 15 dips to 3%3%
Wes Streeting’s first Commons speech after his resignation highlighted the party’s internal split, sustaining the market’s bearish view on a near‑term resignation and keeping the "June 15" odds near the low single‑digit level.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat, sparking party row
December 31 jumps to 76%5%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election fueled internal Labour Party tensions and speculation about Starmer’s leadership, contributing to market volatility.
Keir Starmer Resignation Odds Peak at 87%
December 31 dips to 72%2%
Market odds reached their highest point, with Ladbrokes pricing Starmer as short as 1/7 to leave before the next general election. This reflected the culmination of multiple scandals and declining polling.
Keir Starmer chairs first Cabinet meeting since Wes Streeting’s resignation
December 31 jumps to 67%11%
Starmer convened his first Cabinet meeting after Streeting's resignation, reaffirming his intent to remain as Prime Minister despite ongoing leadership challenges, which caused mixed market reactions with some recovery in longer-term confidence.
Starmer warns leadership challenge would damage Labour’s election chances
June 15 rises to 4%1%
Starmer warned that a leadership challenge could jeopardise the next election, prompting a brief rally in the June 15 market (price ticked up from 3 % to 4 % on 31 May). The move reflected traders’ belief he might temporarily stabilise the party.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham's bid for parliamentary seat, sparking internal party row
December 31 rises to 74%4%
The Labour Party's decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election was seen as an attempt to prevent a leadership challenge to Starmer. This deepened internal divisions and uncertainty about Starmer's future.
Starmer vows to continue governing despite mounting leadership pressure
December 31 drops to 73%14%
In response to ongoing criticism and calls for resignation, Starmer publicly committed to carrying on with his government’s work, causing a brief market correction in the probability of his departure by December 31.
Over 90 Labour MPs demand Starmer set departure date amid leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 73%8%
A significant number of Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to announce a departure timetable, reflecting deep party divisions and sharply increasing market probabilities of his exit by year-end.
Conservative leader Badenoch calls for Starmer’s resignation after Robbins dismissal
July 31 drops to 41%9%
GB News reported Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly demanding Starmer’s resignation following the dismissal of senior diplomat Olly Robbins (related to the Mandelson vetting crisis). The statement coincided with the final collapse of the “July 31” probability (price fell from 50 % to 41 %).
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament, sparking internal party conflict
June 30 drops to 30%9%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election was seen as an attempt to prevent a leadership challenge to Starmer, highlighting internal party tensions and affecting market sentiment on Starmer’s future.
Keir Starmer reportedly plans orderly resignation amid Labour rebellion
December 31 jumps to 72%5%
Reports emerged that Starmer intended to step down as Prime Minister on his own terms, announcing a timeline for an orderly transition, reflecting acceptance of his weakened position and influencing market expectations for the December 31 outcome.
Keir Starmer announces plans to step down as UK Prime Minister
December 31 surges to 88%20%
Starmer informed close allies of his intention to resign and is discussing a timeline for departure, causing a sharp increase in market prices for his resignation by December 31, 2026.
Reports emerge that Keir Starmer plans to resign with an orderly transition
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Amid mounting pressure and internal party turmoil, reports surfaced that Starmer intends to step down as Prime Minister, planning an orderly transition rather than an abrupt exit, reflecting the culmination of the crisis.
Wes Streeting announces leadership challenge against Keir Starmer
June 30 rises to 68%4%
Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned and declared his intention to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership, intensifying the leadership crisis and causing market shifts with increased odds of Starmer leaving by June 30, 2026.
Streeting officially challenges Starmer for Labour leadership
June 15 rises to 4%2%
Altcoin Observer noted Streeting’s formal leadership challenge announcement on 17 May, which caused a brief rebound in the “June 15” market (price rising to 4 % before falling again) and cemented the market’s view that Starmer’s tenure would not survive past early summer.
Starmer visits China seeking economic boost amid strained US ties
December 31 surges to 88%15%
Starmer’s visit to China aimed to improve economic relations and offset domestic challenges, but also exposed him to criticism over national security and human rights concerns, influencing market perceptions of his political stability and contributing to price fluctuations.
Keir Starmer reportedly plans to step down on his own terms amid Labour turmoil
December 31 jumps to 80%7%
Reports emerged that Starmer intends to announce a timetable for stepping down as Prime Minister, reflecting the culmination of internal party pressure and resignations. This news influenced the December 31 outcome price, increasing expectations of his eventual departure.
Starmer's Mandelson scandal peaks with May 17 price surge
December 31 surges to 89%18%
The May 17 price peak at 89% coincided with the peak of the Mandelson scandal coverage, showing the market's sensitivity to the ongoing political crisis.
Starmer plans to step down on own terms amid Labour turmoil
December 31 rises to 72%3%
Reports emerged that Starmer intends to announce a timetable for stepping down as Prime Minister, reflecting escalating internal party pressure and signaling an impending leadership change.
Market surges on intensified speculation of Starmer's imminent exit
December 31 jumps to 87%14%
Following sustained political turmoil and leadership challenges, betting markets sharply increased the probability of Starmer leaving office by year-end, reflecting heightened investor confidence in his departure.
Wes Streeting confirms he will stand in leadership contest against Starmer
December 31 jumps to 70%5%
After resigning, Wes Streeting announced his intention to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership, escalating the internal party crisis. This announcement increased market expectations of a leadership change before the end of 2026, particularly affecting mid-year resignation probabilities.
Reports emerge that Starmer plans to step down on his own terms amid Labour turmoil
December 31 rises to 70%1%
Amid ongoing cabinet resignations and internal party conflict, Starmer reportedly told allies he intends to announce a timetable for stepping down, signaling an eventual departure and influencing market expectations for later exit dates.
Reports say Keir Starmer may be preparing to stand down amid Labour revolt
December 31 surges to 87%18%
Reports emerged that Starmer had privately told friends he intends to stand down and set an orderly timetable for his departure, though no official resignation was announced. This fueled market speculation and increased the likelihood of Starmer leaving office by the end of 2025 and mid-2026.
Reports emerge that Keir Starmer is preparing to stand down
December 31 surges to 87%18%
Reports based on private conversations indicated Starmer intends to set an orderly timetable for his departure, reflecting the peak of internal party revolt and speculation about his imminent resignation.
Reports say Keir Starmer preparing to stand down amid Labour revolt
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
Reports emerged that Starmer had privately told friends he intended to stand down and was setting an orderly timetable for departure, though no official announcement was made. This fueled market speculation and caused sharp declines in prices for earlier resignation dates.
Wes Streeting challenges Keir Starmer for Labour leadership amid tensions
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting officially announced his leadership challenge against Starmer, reflecting deepening party divisions. This announcement increased market expectations for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Market surge in Starmer resignation odds amid intensified leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 92%36%
Market prices for Starmer leaving office by December 31 peaked at 92% on May 16, reflecting heightened expectations of his resignation due to ongoing political instability and ministerial departures.
Reports say Keir Starmer preparing to stand down with orderly timetable
December 31 surges to 80%18%
Multiple reports, including from Daily Mail and ITV, indicated Starmer privately intends to resign and is setting a departure timetable, though no official announcement was made, causing market spikes in longer-term resignation odds.
Labour lawmakers call for Starmer to resign following Mandelson revelations
December 31 surges to 92%21%
Increased pressure from within the Labour Party for Starmer to step down reached a peak, reflected in the market's high 'Yes' probability for his departure.
Reports emerge Keir Starmer preparing to stand down with orderly timetable
June 30 surges to 64%36%
Media reports and insider leaks suggested Starmer was planning an orderly departure timetable, increasing market speculation about his exit, especially affecting the June 30 and December 31 outcomes with rising probabilities for resignation within 2026.
Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign or set departure timetable
June 15 drops to 2%6%
Over 95 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation or a clear timetable for departure, reflecting deep party fractures and driving market prices sharply down for short-term departure outcomes.
Health secretary Wes Streeting resigns, sparking mutiny in Starmer’s government
June 30 surges to 74%38%
Health secretary Wes Streeting announced his resignation, marking the start of a “mutiny”. The news coincided with the market’s biggest swing for the "June 30" outcome, which rose dramatically on May 15‑16 before falling again as the resignation intensified uncertainty.
Keir Starmer hit by frontbench resignation as Labour rebels plot to defeat PM
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
Frontbench resignations and rebellion over welfare cuts intensified pressure on Starmer, signaling deep party divisions and weakening his leadership, contributing to market declines in short-term resignation odds.
Keir Starmer faces leadership challenge amid Labour Party unrest
June 30 jumps to 32%6%
Labour MPs openly called for Starmer's resignation, with threats of leadership challenges and support for successors like Wes Streeting, increasing market uncertainty and YES pricing for Starmer's removal by June 30, 2026.
Wes Streeting challenges Keir Starmer for Labour leadership amid cross-party tensions
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting officially announced his intention to challenge Starmer for Labour Party leadership, signaling significant internal party tensions. This announcement increased market odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
MP Catherine West announces leadership challenge against Starmer
December 31 rises to 73%3%
Following mounting pressure and poor election results, MP Catherine West announced her intention to mount a leadership campaign, intensifying the internal party challenge and increasing market expectations of Starmer's exit before the end of 2025.
Starmer’s leadership support surges amid intensified Mandelson-Epstein scandal revelations
December 31 surges to 87%25%
Following new revelations and Starmer’s public apology for Mandelson’s appointment, the market saw a sharp increase in the probability of Starmer leaving by December 31, reflecting heightened political instability and leadership doubts.
Starmer faces intensified calls to resign as party fractures deepen
December 31 jumps to 89%5%
With mounting pressure from MPs and ministers, Starmer's position became increasingly untenable, reflected in market peaks for his departure by year-end.
Labour Party unrest intensifies with leadership challenge threat
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Labour MPs openly called for Starmer's resignation and threatened a leadership challenge, with Wes Streeting announcing his intention to challenge Starmer. This internal party strife increased market odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Over 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign
December 31 dips to 73%2%
Following poor election results and internal dissent, more than 70 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer announce a timetable for departure, intensifying the leadership crisis and impacting market prices for his continued tenure.
Starmer apologizes to Epstein victims amid leadership pressure
December 31 jumps to 88%14%
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson, acknowledging the damage caused and facing increased calls for his resignation, which influenced market volatility and price swings.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein fallout
December 31 jumps to 88%14%
The resignation of Starmer’s chief of staff over the Mandelson scandal signaled internal turmoil and reinforced market expectations of a possible leadership change, contributing to the final surge toward 88% confidence.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns from Cabinet amid Labour leadership turmoil
June 30 plunges to 22%17%
Wes Streeting's resignation from the Cabinet intensified the Labour Party's leadership crisis, reflecting internal dissent and weakening Starmer's position, which contributed to the decline in market prices for the June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting quits, urges Starmer to set a resignation timetable
June 30 plunges to 14%55%
Streeting resigned as Health Secretary (Richmond & Twickenham Times) and publicly called for Starmer to set a resignation timetable. The announcement coincided with a plunge of the “Starmer out by June 30” price from ~55 % to under 20 % over the next few days, reflecting market belief that a leadership challenge was imminent.
Keir Starmer appoints Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman in premiership reset
December 31 surges to 67%18%
In response to electoral defeats and internal dissent, Starmer appointed former PM Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman to advisory roles to stabilize his leadership, temporarily boosting market confidence for his tenure through December 31, 2026.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, says he has lost confidence in Starmer
June 15 plunges to 3%47%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned, publicly stating he had lost confidence in Starmer. The resignation triggered a massive sell‑off in the June 15 market – price fell from 50 % to 3 % within two days (priceBefore = 50, priceAfter = 3).
Joint UK‑Norway naval patrols announced to counter Russian submarines
June 30 surges to 67%27%
The defence agreement with Norway was portrayed as a strong security move, giving a modest boost to confidence in Starmer’s leadership for the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 74%5%
The resignation of Starmer's chief of staff, who advised on Mandelson's appointment, deepened the crisis and raised questions about Starmer's leadership and accountability, pushing market probabilities for his exit higher.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, signaling leadership challenge
December 31 rises to 75%3%
Wes Streeting's resignation as Health Secretary marked a significant blow to Starmer's leadership, with other potential rivals positioning for a leadership contest, increasing market expectations of Starmer's exit by year-end.
Starmer apologizes to Epstein victims and faces calls to resign
May 31 dips to 21%4%
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson and faced mounting pressure from opposition and some Labour lawmakers, further eroding confidence in his leadership and impacting market prices for near-term departure outcomes.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, signaling leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 80%8%
Streeting's resignation as a senior cabinet minister marked a critical escalation in the leadership crisis, increasing market expectations for Starmer's departure before year-end.
Starmer apologises to victims after Mandelson‑Epstein investigation expands
A new police investigation into Mandelson’s alleged leaks to Epstein revived the scandal, causing a sharp price jump for the “Yes” outcome as traders feared a leadership crisis.
Keir Starmer faces fierce standoff with leadership rivals amid looming resignations
June 30 dips to 45%1%
Reports emerged of multiple leadership rivals preparing to challenge Starmer, with Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband among potential contenders. This heightened internal party conflict and uncertainty about Starmer's future, contributing to market price fluctuations and increased probability of his resignation by mid-2026.
Wes Streeting challenges Keir Starmer for Labour leadership amid tensions
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting officially announced a leadership challenge against Starmer, reflecting internal party tensions and increasing market odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Keir Starmer meets Wes Streeting amid leadership challenge
December 31 rises to 69%1%
Starmer met with former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who had resigned and announced plans to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership, signaling a serious internal party contest and increasing pressure on Starmer.
Starmer defies calls to resign, vows to fight next general election
June 30 plunges to 30%37%
Despite mounting pressure and resignations, Starmer publicly refused to set a resignation timetable, signaling his intent to continue, which caused mixed market reactions across outcomes.
Starmer’s approval spikes after successful UK‑Japan cybersecurity pact
December 31 drops to 74%7%
A high‑profile agreement with Japan on cybersecurity and critical minerals was portrayed as a diplomatic win, temporarily easing political pressure on Starmer and causing a brief price dip before the market resumed its upward trend.
Starmer announces teen social‑media ban options
May 19 jumps to 12%10%
Starmer’s statement that a ban on teenage social‑media use was “not off the table” sparked public debate and drove Yes prices for the May 19 outcome sharply upward.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping to deepen UK-China ties amid global turbulence
Starmer's visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping aimed to strengthen UK-China relations and secure economic benefits. While this diplomatic effort was significant, it had limited impact on the market's assessment of Starmer's tenure, with only minor price fluctuations.
Three back-to-back ministerial resignations hit Keir Starmer's government
December 31 rises to 69%3%
Ministers Jess Phillips, Alex Davies-Jones, and Miatta Fahnbulleh resigned, citing loss of confidence in Starmer's leadership following disastrous local election results. This wave of resignations intensified pressure on Starmer and signaled deepening party unrest, causing market uncertainty about his future.
Keir Starmer faces critical cabinet meeting amid calls to resign
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Starmer met with cabinet members to address the growing rebellion and calls for his resignation after poor local election results, temporarily stabilizing his position but not ending the crisis.
Growing Labour rebellion with over 90 MPs demanding Starmer's resignation
December 31 jumps to 69%8%
By mid-May 2026, internal party rebellion peaked with numerous MPs and ministers publicly calling for Starmer to step down, reflecting a collapse in his authority and driving market prices to near certainty of his exit by year-end.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood joins calls for Starmer to resign
July 31 drops to 41%9%
Home Secretary Mahmood publicly called for Starmer’s resignation, joining a cascade of ministerial exits. The news coincided with the market’s steepest drop in “July 31” odds, which slid from 50 % to 41 % on May 31, reflecting heightened exit risk.
Wes Streeting prepares to challenge Keir Starmer for Labour leadership
June 30 surges to 56%26%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting's preparation to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership amid party turmoil and poor election results increased market expectations of Starmer's removal by mid-2026.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
May 31 plunges to 25%29%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer's judgment, contributing to market volatility and a spike in the probability of Starmer leaving by May 31.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Starmer
May 31 plunges to 0%19%
Wes Streeting's resignation as Health Secretary was a significant blow to Starmer, publicly stating he had lost confidence in the Prime Minister's leadership, further undermining Starmer's position and fueling market expectations of his imminent departure.
Starmer cabinet meeting shows leadership under threat but he refuses to resign
December 31 surges to 89%22%
Starmer's refusal to resign despite growing dissent and resignations from junior ministers highlighted the deepening crisis, causing market volatility and a spike in perceived likelihood of his departure by year-end.
Starmer defies calls to resign at critical cabinet meeting
December 31 jumps to 72%6%
Despite mounting resignations and calls for his departure, Starmer told his cabinet he would remain in office, arguing the party's fundamentals were sound. This defiance caused some market recovery in longer-term exit probabilities.
Four junior ministers resign amid growing calls for Starmer to quit
June 15 dips to 3%4%
On May 12, 2026, four junior ministers including Jess Phillips resigned, citing lack of leadership, intensifying pressure on Starmer and causing significant market price drops for near-term exit outcomes.
Starmer faces critical cabinet meeting amid calls to quit
December 31 dips to 69%4%
Starmer prepared to meet his cabinet amid escalating internal rebellion and public calls for his resignation, highlighting the precariousness of his position as Prime Minister.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament, sparking party row
December 31 surges to 88%17%
Labour’s National Executive Committee, including Starmer, blocked popular Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election, fueling internal party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges.
Multiple junior ministers resign amid leadership crisis
June 15 plunges to 6%44%
Following Streeting's resignation, several junior ministers including Jess Phillips resigned, intensifying the leadership crisis and increasing market expectations of Starmer's imminent departure.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Starmer
June 15 plunges to 8%42%
Wes Streeting's resignation as health secretary was a critical blow to Starmer's leadership, signaling deep cabinet fractures and escalating calls for his resignation, sharply impacting market prices for near-term departure outcomes.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting gears up to challenge Starmer for Labour leadership
May 31 plunges to 3%16%
Wes Streeting, Health Secretary, announced he was preparing to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership on 12 May 2026. The move signalled a credible leadership coup, sending the market’s Yes probability for the “May 31” outcome sharply down from 19 % to 3 % as traders saw an imminent leadership battle rather than an outright removal.
Multiple junior ministers resign amid growing calls for Starmer to step down
December 31 rises to 73%4%
A wave of resignations from junior ministers and aides reflected the peak of internal rebellion, severely undermining Starmer's position and causing market prices to reflect a high chance of his departure by year-end.
Three back‑to‑back ministerial resignations hit Starmer’s government
May 31 plunges to 0%19%
GB News reported three successive ministerial resignations – including Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips – on 12 May. The wave of departures intensified market pessimism, pushing the “Starmer out by May 31” price to 0 % and the “June 15” price to 2 % within a day.
Three ministerial resignations deepen Keir Starmer's leadership crisis
May 31 plunges to 1%18%
Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips, Victims Minister Alex Davies-Jones, and Communities Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh resigned, criticizing Starmer's leadership and increasing pressure on him to step down, which contributed to a sharp drop in market confidence for Starmer's departure by May 31 and June 15.
Starmer vows to continue after high-stakes cabinet meeting
Despite multiple resignations and calls for his resignation, Starmer declared his intention to remain in office after a critical cabinet meeting, temporarily stabilizing his position but not quelling dissent.
Multiple Labour ministers and aides resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 82%16%
Following disastrous local elections and growing backbench rebellion, several ministers including Wes Streeting resigned, signaling a critical loss of support for Starmer and pushing market prices higher for his exit by year-end.
Starmer faces split cabinet amid mounting calls to resign
December 31 jumps to 71%5%
Starmer held a critical cabinet meeting amid growing internal party rebellion and multiple ministerial resignations, reinforcing market expectations of his eventual departure.
Keir Starmer refuses to resign, pledges to continue despite mounting pressure
Starmer's defiant stance at a critical cabinet meeting temporarily stabilized his position but did not quell the rebellion, leading to continued market uncertainty and volatility in shorter-term outcomes.
Close to 100 Labour MPs call for Starmer to resign or announce timetable
December 31 surges to 72%22%
A significant number of Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation or a clear timetable for his departure, increasing political pressure and market expectations of his exit.
Three ministerial resignations hit Keir Starmer's government, including Jess Phillips
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips and two others resigned, publicly calling for Starmer to step down. This wave of resignations intensified the leadership crisis, sharply reducing market confidence in Starmer's ability to remain PM through June and May deadlines.
Donald Trump criticizes Keir Starmer amid UK Labour leadership crisis
December 31 drops to 73%13%
US President Donald Trump publicly criticized Starmer's energy policy and leadership amid growing Labour turmoil, highlighting international attention and adding pressure on Starmer. This contributed to market declines in Starmer's tenure probabilities.
Trump criticizes Starmer amid UK Labour leadership crisis
May 31 drops to 27%8%
US President Donald Trump publicly criticized Keir Starmer's energy policy, adding international scrutiny to the Labour leader during a period of internal party turmoil.
Labour MP Clive Lewis urges Starmer to step down
May 31 surges to 57%38%
On 12 May 2026, leading Labour MP Clive Lewis publicly called for Starmer’s resignation, citing the party’s disastrous local election results. The declaration sparked a brief market rally for the “May 31” outcome (price jumped to 57 % before falling back to 5 % by the end of the month).
Three ministerial resignations hit Keir Starmer amid leadership crisis
December 31 rises to 68%2%
Ministers Jess Phillips, Alex Davies-Jones, and Miatta Fahnbulleh resigned, publicly calling for Starmer to step down, intensifying the leadership crisis and increasing market expectations of his exit.
Three junior ministers resign, intensifying pressure on Starmer
June 30 plunges to 26%22%
Three junior ministers quit within hours, citing loss of confidence in Starmer. The wave of resignations pushed the June 30 market down sharply – from roughly 48 % on 5 May to 26 % on 26 May (priceBefore = 48, priceAfter = 26).
Over 90 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 72%7%
After poor election performances and internal dissent, more than 90 Labour MPs demanded Starmer's resignation, with several ministers and aides resigning, sharply increasing market expectations of his departure.
Jess Phillips resigns from Keir Starmer's government amid growing calls for PM's resignation
December 31 surges to 72%22%
Jess Phillips, safeguarding minister, resigned from the government, marking the second ministerial resignation in a day and signaling deepening instability within Starmer's administration, which pushed market prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer meets Chinese President Xi in Beijing
December 31 surges to 83%17%
Starmer’s high‑profile diplomatic trip to China was intended to boost economic prospects, temporarily lifting optimism for the longer‑term dates but not enough to reverse the overall downward trend.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing loss of confidence in Starmer
December 31 rises to 73%3%
Wes Streeting's resignation as Health Secretary was a significant blow to Starmer, signaling deep cabinet divisions and accelerating the leadership crisis, which was reflected in market price volatility and increased probability of Starmer leaving by year-end.
Over 80 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 69%9%
By May 2026, more than 80 Labour MPs had publicly demanded Starmer's resignation or a timetable for his departure, reflecting a deepening leadership crisis and widespread loss of confidence within his party, which was mirrored by a sharp decline in market prices for his staying beyond mid-2026.
Four junior ministers resign amid growing Labour rebellion against Starmer
December 31 rises to 70%2%
The resignations of junior ministers including Jess Phillips and Wes Streeting amid widespread calls from Labour MPs for Starmer to step down marked a peak in the leadership crisis, pushing market prices for his exit to near certainty by year-end.
Keir Starmer vows to continue as PM despite mounting resignations and calls to quit
December 31 jumps to 69%6%
Starmer held a high-stakes cabinet meeting and declared his intention to remain in office, attempting to stabilize his leadership amid growing dissent, which temporarily bolstered market confidence in his tenure.
Four junior ministers quit, intensifying pressure on Starmer to resign
June 15 plunges to 6%44%
Four junior ministers – including Home Office minister Jess Phillips – resigned, joining the growing list of MPs demanding Starmer step down. The cascade of resignations triggered a sharp fall in the "June 15" probability, which slid from 50 % to 6 % within a day.
Keir Starmer delivers speech to ward off Labour leadership contest after local election losses
June 30 surges to 55%23%
Following significant Labour losses in local elections, Starmer addressed the nation to rally support and prevent a leadership challenge. Despite this, calls for his resignation increased, pushing market prices higher for his exit by June 30, 2026.
More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer to resign after poor local election results
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Following disappointing local election outcomes, over 70 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation, reflecting deep party division and escalating pressure on his leadership, which caused significant market volatility and a sharp increase in the December 31 outcome probability.
Over 70 Labour MPs and senior ministers call for Starmer's resignation after election losses
Following disastrous local election results, numerous Labour MPs and cabinet members publicly demanded Starmer resign or set a departure timetable, marking a leadership crisis.
Polling shows Labour support at historic lows and Starmer's approval rating worst since 1977
December 31 surges to 79%29%
Polling data revealed Labour trailing and Starmer's personal approval at record lows, increasing market odds of his eventual resignation by year-end.
Keir Starmer delivers make-or-break speech amid mounting resignation calls
December 31 surges to 86%19%
Following disastrous local election results, Starmer addressed the nation to quell demands for his resignation. Despite the speech, internal party dissent persisted, causing market fluctuations and uncertainty about his leadership duration.
Keir Starmer considers resignation amid Labour Party crisis
June 30 surges to 64%36%
Reports emerged that Starmer was considering resignation amid a political crisis within Labour, exacerbated by poor election results and cabinet resignations, leading to a surge in market pricing for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Labour suffers major losses in local elections, prompting calls for Starmer's resignation
June 30 surges to 55%23%
Labour lost control of multiple councils in May 2026 local elections, leading to over 40 MPs publicly calling for Starmer to resign, significantly boosting market odds for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Starmer announces plan to ban teen social‑media use
May 31 rises to 23%4%
Starmer’s proposal to consider an Australia‑style ban on teenage social‑media access was viewed as a bold policy move, nudging the May‑31 price up from 19% to 23% as the market saw a potential distraction from leadership pressures.
Starmer apologizes for Mandelson appointment amid mounting pressure
December 31 rises to 73%4%
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson as ambassador despite his Epstein ties, acknowledging the damage to trust and increasing calls for his resignation, which influenced market prices for later outcomes.
Labour suffers disastrous local elections, calls for Starmer to resign surge
December 31 jumps to 78%9%
Following poor election results, over 90 Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer's resignation, intensifying the leadership crisis and causing sharp market price swings, especially for short-term outcomes.
Multiple junior ministers resign amid growing calls for Starmer to quit
May 31 surges to 56%37%
Several junior ministers resigned in protest against Starmer's leadership, escalating internal party rebellion and sharply increasing market expectations of his departure by May 31, 2026.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping, calls for deeper UK-China ties amid global turbulence
December 31 rises to 70%2%
Starmer's diplomatic efforts to strengthen UK-China relations aimed to boost economic prospects and stabilize his leadership image, contributing to a rise in the December 31 market outcome despite domestic challenges.
Labour blocks Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's bid for Parliament seat
Labour's National Executive Committee, including Starmer, blocked Burnham's candidacy, seen as a potential leadership challenger, reflecting internal party tensions and affecting market confidence in Starmer's stability, impacting May 19 and May 31 outcomes.
Labour chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson scandal
December 31 surges to 86%37%
The resignation of a key political ally and architect of Starmer's election campaign further weakened the Prime Minister's position and authority.
Over 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign amid party rebellion
December 31 jumps to 72%11%
The unprecedented number of Labour MPs demanding Starmer's resignation underscored the depth of the leadership crisis, causing significant market movement and reinforcing expectations of his eventual departure.
Over 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign after failed leadership speech
May 31 plunges to 2%17%
After a speech intended to shore up his leadership, more than 70 Labour MPs publicly demanded Starmer's resignation, reflecting a significant loss of party support and escalating the leadership crisis. This event contributed to a sharp decline in the May 31 outcome price.
Keir Starmer delivers defiant speech amid Labour election losses and leadership calls
December 31 surges to 72%21%
Following disastrous local election results and multiple ministerial resignations, Starmer addressed the nation insisting he would not resign, temporarily stabilizing his position but failing to quell internal party rebellion, causing market uncertainty especially for near-term departure dates.
Labour MPs and ministers publicly call for Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 73%25%
Over 95 Labour MPs, including cabinet ministers and junior ministers, demanded Starmer's resignation following poor election results and internal party fractures, signaling a critical threat to his premiership.
Keir Starmer delivers speech to ward off Labour leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 66%13%
Following disastrous local election results and mounting calls for his resignation, Starmer addressed the nation to rally support and prevent a leadership contest, temporarily stabilizing his position.
Starmer vows to fight next election, refuses to set resignation timetable
December 31 surges to 85%19%
After the disastrous local‑election results, Starmer delivered a televised speech pledging to stay on and fight the next general election. The declaration halted the market’s slide and lifted the December 31 price from 66 % (5 May) to 85 % (18 May).
Keir Starmer vows to fight on after historic local election losses
December 31 jumps to 65%9%
Following devastating local election defeats where Labour lost 1,500 councillors, Starmer delivered a speech refusing to resign and pledging to rebuild the party. Despite his defiance, the market reacted with volatility reflecting ongoing doubts about his leadership stability.
Revelations of Mandelson's failed security vetting and police investigation intensify
May 31 surges to 54%35%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming ambassador, leading to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant and a criminal investigation. This scandal severely undermined Starmer's leadership and caused a sharp market reaction, especially for the May 31 outcome.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
December 31 surges to 83%17%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying pressure on Starmer and causing a significant market price spike for the December 31 outcome.
Over 70 Labour MPs, including two senior ministers, call for Starmer’s resignation
December 31 surges to 88%19%
More than 70 Labour MPs, including senior cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood, publicly called for Starmer to resign after his leadership speech failed to restore confidence. The unprecedented rebellion drove the market up sharply for the "December 31" outcome as traders priced in a heightened risk of a resignation before year‑end.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
May 31 jumps to 29%10%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the controversial appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his Epstein ties. This resignation highlighted internal turmoil and increased market concerns about Starmer's leadership stability, reflected in rising probabilities for his departure by May 31, 2026.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament, sparking internal party conflict
June 30 jumps to 30%7%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary election fueled speculation of internal party strife and potential leadership challenges to Starmer, affecting market sentiment negatively for the June 30 outcome.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 surges to 86%20%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the controversial appointment of Mandelson, intensifying the political storm and raising doubts about Starmer’s leadership.
Starmer announces release of Mandelson appointment files
The government committed to publishing documents about Mandelson’s ambassadorship, a move seen as an attempt to contain the scandal but which underscored the depth of the issue, pushing odds lower.
Labour MP Catherine West calls for leadership contest against Starmer after local election losses
December 31 jumps to 72%7%
Following disastrous local election results, MP Catherine West announced plans to trigger a leadership contest if no cabinet minister challenges Starmer, signaling deep party unrest and increasing exit odds.
Labour suffers crushing local‑election defeats, MPs call for Starmer’s resignation
June 15 plunges to 2%48%
Labour’s disastrous local‑election results triggered a wave of resignations and calls for Starmer’s ouster. The market’s “June 30” and “June 15” outcomes fell sharply, with the latter hitting a historic low of 2 % on May 31, reflecting near‑certain removal in investors’ view.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections triggering leadership crisis
June 15 plunges to 7%43%
Labour's poor performance in the May 2026 local elections led to a surge in calls for Starmer's resignation from over 70 Labour MPs and several ministers, sparking a major leadership crisis and causing sharp market declines in short-term exit probabilities.
Labour suffers devastating local election losses, sparking calls for Starmer's resignation
December 31 surges to 72%22%
Labour's heavy losses in local elections led to a surge in public and party calls for Starmer to resign, triggering a sharp increase in market pricing for his departure by year-end and intensifying leadership crisis fears.
Starmer proposes teenage social‑media ban, sparking public backlash
December 31 plunges to 49%35%
The Prime Minister’s suggestion to consider an Australia‑style ban on social‑media for under‑16s triggered criticism and concerns over civil liberties, causing a sharp drop in confidence in his leadership.
Labour suffers crushing losses in local elections, sparking mass calls for Starmer's resignation
December 31 jumps to 73%10%
Labour's poor results in the 2026 local elections led to over 95 Labour MPs publicly calling for Starmer to resign, with several ministers and aides resigning, marking a critical point in the leadership crisis and sharply increasing market odds of his departure.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, sparking leadership crisis
December 31 jumps to 71%11%
Labour's poor performance in May 2026 local elections led to over 80 Labour MPs publicly calling for Starmer to resign, marking a critical point in his leadership crisis and market price shifts.
Labour suffers historic losses in 2026 local elections, triggering mass resignations
May 31 plunges to 0%19%
Labour's catastrophic results in the 2026 local elections led to a leadership crisis with over 95 MPs calling for Starmer's resignation and multiple ministerial resignations, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting. This event sharply increased market odds for Starmer's departure by the end of May 2026.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham's bid for Parliament, sparking internal party row
May 19 drops to 6%8%
The decision to block a popular rival's parliamentary bid fueled speculation of internal party conflict and leadership challenges to Starmer, reflecting growing instability within Labour ahead of local elections.
Labour suffers big losses in local elections, Reform UK gains
May 31 drops to 6%13%
Labour's poor performance in local and regional elections was seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, leading to increased speculation about his future and a sharp drop in market prices for the May 31 outcome.
Labour suffers big losses in local elections, Starmer refuses to quit
June 30 surges to 69%29%
Labour's poor performance in the May 7 local and regional elections, with significant losses and gains by Reform UK, intensified pressure on Starmer's leadership. Despite calls for resignation from within his party, Starmer insisted he would not step down, causing a moderate increase in the market probability for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Local elections deliver losses for Labour, Reform UK gains
June 30 plunges to 18%23%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, seen as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership, increasing speculation about a leadership challenge and contributing to market declines in the probability of Starmer staying through May and June.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat, sparking party row
June 30 rises to 41%3%
The decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary by-election fueled internal Labour Party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges to Starmer, influencing market uncertainty around his tenure.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, Reform UK gains ground
May 15 plunges to 0%25%
The poor performance of Labour in the May 7 local elections, with significant gains by Reform UK, led to a sharp drop in market confidence for Starmer's short-term survival, especially for May 15 and May 19 outcomes.
Labour Party suffers major losses in local and regional elections
June 30 drops to 39%6%
The poor performance in local elections was widely interpreted as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, fueling speculation about his potential resignation.
Labour suffers devastating local election losses, sparking calls for Starmer's resignation
December 31 surges to 70%20%
Labour's poor performance in local elections intensified pressure on Starmer, leading to multiple ministerial resignations and a surge in calls from MPs for his departure, sharply increasing market odds for his exit by year-end.
Starmer defends his position after election setbacks
Starmer publicly pledged to stay on despite the election defeats, but the statement failed to restore market confidence, contributing to a further price drop.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local and regional elections, Reform UK gains
December 31 jumps to 74%13%
Labour's poor performance in the May 7 elections was seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership amid ongoing scandals and economic difficulties. Despite pressure, Starmer refused to resign, but the results fueled speculation about a leadership challenge.
Local elections deliver losses for Labour and wins for Reform UK
May 31 plunges to 4%15%
Labour suffered major losses in local and regional elections, with Starmer stating he would not resign despite the poor results. This triggered renewed discussion about potential leadership challenges.
Labour suffers losses in local and regional elections, raising leadership doubts
May 31 drops to 5%14%
Labour’s poor performance in May elections, attributed to Starmer’s missteps and the Mandelson scandal, fueled speculation about a leadership challenge, causing a decline in the May 31 outcome price and pressure on Starmer’s tenure.
Labour suffers crushing local election losses, sparking leadership crisis
December 31 surges to 74%15%
Labour's poor performance in local elections led to a surge in calls for Starmer's resignation, with over 95 MPs demanding his departure, causing sharp market reactions especially for near-term exit dates.
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections, sparking leadership crisis
May 31 plunges to 0%19%
Labour's poor performance in May 2026 local elections intensified internal party dissent, with over 95 MPs publicly calling for Starmer to resign and several ministers quitting, sharply reducing market confidence in his staying power beyond mid-2026.
Starmer meets with Japanese leaders on cybersecurity and critical minerals
During a stop in Tokyo, Starmer secured a cooperation deal with Japan on cybersecurity and critical minerals, signalling a proactive foreign‑policy agenda that briefly lifted confidence in his tenure.
Local and regional elections deliver heavy losses for Labour
The May 5 local elections saw Labour lose more than half the seats it defended, a blow interpreted as a de‑facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership, further depressing market confidence.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
Morgan McSweeney quit as Starmer’s chief of staff after the fallout from Peter Mandelson’s appointment as U.S. ambassador, intensifying scrutiny of Starmer’s judgment and pushing market odds lower.
Starmer leads UK delegation to China to forge strategic partnership
December 31 surges to 84%18%
Starmer’s high‑profile visit to Beijing, aimed at deepening trade and diplomatic ties, was interpreted as a bold foreign‑policy gamble that lifted market expectations of his staying in office through year‑end.
Wes Streeting announces leadership challenge against Keir Starmer
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Wes Streeting's official challenge to Starmer's leadership highlighted internal party tensions and increased market expectations for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Labour MP Jonathan Brash calls for Starmer’s resignation on GB News
June 30 rises to 42%1%
A minor dip in the "June 30" probability on April 30 coincided with a report that a Labour MP called for Starmer’s resignation on GB News, reinforcing market concerns about early leadership turmoil.
Starmer faces accusations of misleading Parliament over Mandelson vetting
December 31 rises to 69%2%
Starmer was accused of misleading Parliament about Mandelson’s security clearance, further damaging his credibility and increasing market expectations of his potential departure by year-end.
Labour blocks Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat amid leadership tensions
December 31 rises to 66%1%
The Labour Party, including Starmer, blocked popular mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary by-election, fueling speculation about internal party rivalries and leadership challenges, impacting market sentiment for Starmer’s tenure through December 31.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 rises to 69%3%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political crisis and fueling speculation about Starmer’s vulnerability, impacting market prices.
Keir Starmer 'Broke Ministerial Code' After Palantir Meeting
December 31 rises to 74%4%
Starmer was accused of failing to disclose a February 2025 visit to Palantir's Washington offices with Mandelson, a breach generally considered grounds for resignation. This added another layer of scandal to his premiership.
Keir Starmer accused of breaching ministerial code over undisclosed Palantir visit
December 31 dips to 52%4%
Starmer faced allegations of violating the ministerial code after failing to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office, linked to Peter Mandelson. This scandal further undermined his credibility and leadership, impacting market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer faces allegations of ministerial code breach over undisclosed Palantir visit
Starmer was accused of breaking the ministerial code by failing to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office with Mandelson, further damaging his credibility and contributing to market confidence in his eventual departure by December 31.
Starmer announces UK‑Norway joint naval patrols to protect undersea cables
The AP story on joint UK‑Norway naval operations was viewed as a strong security move, lifting the December‑31 contract again after a brief dip in April.
Starmer accused of breaching ministerial code over Palantir meeting
December 31 jumps to 70%12%
A GB News report alleged Starmer broke the ministerial code by failing to disclose a February 2025 meeting with Palantir that included Lord Mandelson. The allegation intensified pressure on Starmer and coincided with a sharp rise in the December 31 probability (from 58 % on 18 Dec 2025 to 70 % on 9 Feb 2026).
Starmer accused of breaking ministerial code over undisclosed visit with Mandelson client
December 31 rises to 65%2%
Starmer faced allegations of violating the ministerial code after failing to disclose a visit to Palantir's Washington office with Peter Mandelson, further damaging his credibility and increasing political pressure.
UK and Norway sign joint naval patrol agreement
December 31 rises to 69%1%
The defense pact was portrayed as a strong foreign‑policy win for Starmer, briefly lifting the December‑31 price from 68% to 69% as market sentiment improved.
UK and Norway launch joint naval patrols to protect undersea cables
December 31 jumps to 68%7%
The defence cooperation was interpreted as a strong security move by Starmer, nudging the December‑31 outcome upward as confidence in his leadership rose.
UK and Norway agree joint naval patrols amid rising Russian threats
Starmer’s government announced joint naval patrols with Norway to protect undersea cables and counter Russian submarines, demonstrating leadership on national security but with limited direct impact on Starmer’s political survival market.
UK and Norway agree joint naval patrols amid rising Russian threats
December 31 jumps to 70%14%
Starmer’s government announced joint naval patrols with Norway to protect undersea cables and counter Russian submarines, demonstrating leadership on national security and slightly bolstering market confidence in his tenure.
Local elections deliver losses for Labour, raising Starmer’s leadership doubts
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, seen as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership. Despite calls for resignation, Starmer refused to quit, causing market fluctuations reflecting uncertainty about his future.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping to deepen UK-China ties amid global turbulence
December 31 surges to 67%15%
Starmer’s visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping aimed to improve diplomatic and economic relations, signaling a strategic partnership. While positive for Starmer’s international standing, it had limited impact on his domestic leadership market.
Senior Labour MPs urge Starmer to set exit timetable after local election losses
December 31 jumps to 68%6%
Following the 2026 local election losses, senior Labour MPs began urging Starmer to set a timeline for his departure. This early pressure contributed to the initial rise in the "December 31" probability in late April.
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies on Mandelson vetting pressure
Robbins testified that Downing Street pressured him to clear Mandelson despite security concerns, undermining Starmer's defense and increasing political pressure.
Starmer dismisses Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
Starmer sacked Olly Robbins following the vetting scandal, intensifying scrutiny on his leadership and impacting market confidence.
Keir Starmer faces calls to resign after Labour's local election losses
June 30 surges to 55%23%
Following substantial losses in early May 2026 local elections, over 40 Labour MPs and some cabinet members publicly called for Starmer's resignation or a clear leadership timetable, increasing market expectations for his departure by June 30, 2026.
Starmer faces critical 48 hours amid growing outrage over Mandelson vetting
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Starmer was set to be questioned in the Commons about the Mandelson vetting scandal, with sacked permanent secretary Olly Robbins to testify. A leaked WhatsApp exchange suggested Downing Street knew of vetting concerns earlier than claimed, raising questions about whether Starmer misled Parliament and increasing resignation pressure.
Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer's resignation amid Mandelson fallout
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Following the Mandelson scandal and related resignations, senior Labour figures including Anas Sarwar publicly called for Starmer to step down, increasing political pressure and contributing to market price rises for the December 31 outcome.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch calls for Starmer’s resignation over Mandelson scandal
December 31 jumps to 71%14%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch publicly demanded Starmer’s resignation after the April 16 report that Mandelson’s vetting had been overridden. Her statement was covered widely, adding pressure and pushing the “December 31” market to a new high (71 % on 2‑4 Mar 2026).
Starmer meets Xi Jinping in Beijing, pledges deeper UK‑China partnership
The same visit also raised the May‑19 outcome modestly as the market viewed the foreign‑policy success as a sign of Starmer’s continued authority.
Starmer faces Commons showdown over Mandelson vetting scandal
Starmer faced intense questioning in Parliament over misleading claims about Mandelson's vetting, with opposition and some Labour MPs demanding his resignation, further destabilizing his premiership.
Starmer admits mistake in appointing Mandelson after vetting warning
December 31 jumps to 75%6%
Starmer publicly admitted on 20 Apr 2026 that he should not have appointed Mandelson as ambassador after learning the security‑vetting agency had warned against it. The admission reignited calls for his resignation and pushed the “December 31” Yes probability back up to the high‑70s.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping in Beijing, pledges deeper UK‑China partnership
June 30 rises to 45%3%
The high‑profile diplomatic trip was seen as a boost to Starmer’s economic agenda, lifting the June‑30 and December‑31 outcomes as investors perceived reduced political risk.
Starmer faces Commons questioning amid Mandelson vetting controversy
December 31 drops to 64%6%
Keir Starmer faced parliamentary questioning over the Mandelson vetting scandal, with opposition leaders accusing him of misleading Parliament and demanding his resignation.
Betting markets price Keir Starmer as odds-on to resign in 2026
Betting markets showed strong interest in Starmer's resignation, with odds implying an 87% chance he would leave office before the next general election, reflecting growing expectations of his departure.
UK‑Norway joint naval patrols announced amid Russian submarine activity
The defence partnership was presented as a strong security move but also underscored heightened threat levels, keeping pressure on Starmer’s leadership credibility.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson scandal
June 30 jumps to 52%7%
The resignation of Starmer’s chief of staff, who had advised the Mandelson appointment, intensified leadership doubts and pushed Yes prices for the June 30 outcome higher.
Mandelson security vetting scandal: Foreign Office overruled UKSV decision
December 31 jumps to 70%10%
The Foreign Office overruled UK Security Vetting's denial of Peter Mandelson's security clearance, a highly unusual move that intensified scrutiny over Starmer's leadership and potential misleading of Parliament.
Mandelson vetting scandal forces Starmer to sack top civil servant and fuels resignation calls
December 31 jumps to 57%13%
A report revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed the UK security‑vetting process in January 2025 and that the Foreign Office had overriden the recommendation. Starmer dismissed Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins and faced calls from opposition parties for his resignation. The scandal drove the “December 31” market up sharply (+14 pts on 17‑19 Apr), raising expectations that Starmer could be forced out by year‑end.
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins over Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
Following revelations that the Foreign Office overruled security vetting to appoint Mandelson, Starmer dismissed Olly Robbins, escalating the political crisis and increasing pressure on the Prime Minister.
Starmer announces consideration of teen social‑media ban, sparking public debate
December 31 jumps to 69%9%
Starmer’s proposal to potentially ban social‑media access for under‑16s was seen as a bold policy move that divided opinion and added to political pressure, nudging the market further toward a ‘Yes’ outcome.
Report reveals Foreign Office overruled security vetting for Mandelson
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
A report confirmed the Foreign Office overruled the UK Security Vetting division's denial of Mandelson's clearance, deepening the scandal and leading to the dismissal of Foreign Office permanent secretary Olly Robbins, increasing calls for Starmer's resignation.
Starmer dismisses Foreign Office permanent secretary amid Mandelson vetting crisis
December 31 surges to 66%20%
Starmer's firing of Sir Olly Robbins over the Foreign Office's overruling of security vetting for Mandelson escalated the scandal, leading to calls for his resignation and impacting market prices significantly.
Revelations confirm Mandelson failed security vetting but Foreign Office overruled
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
Reports confirmed that Peter Mandelson failed his security vetting in January 2025, but the Foreign Office overruled the vetting agency's advice to allow his appointment. Starmer sacked Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins and faced accusations of misleading Parliament, intensifying calls for his resignation and driving up the December 31 outcome price.
Foreign Office Permanent Secretary Sir Olly Robbins dismissed amid Mandelson vetting crisis
Starmer sacked Sir Olly Robbins after it emerged Robbins' department overruled security vetting to grant Mandelson clearance, intensifying the political crisis and calls for Starmer's resignation.
Revelation that Mandelson failed security vetting but Foreign Office overruled
December 31 jumps to 68%12%
Reports confirmed Mandelson failed security vetting but was appointed anyway, with the Foreign Office overriding the vetting agency, causing a political crisis and calls for Starmer's resignation.
Starmer proposes teen social‑media ban, sparking public debate
Starmer announced that a ban on social‑media use for under‑16s was being considered, echoing Australia’s policy. The proposal was controversial and seen as a distraction from governance, causing a dip in the December‑31 price.
UK and Norway agree joint naval patrols amid rising Russian threats
December 31 surges to 68%16%
Starmer’s government announced joint naval patrols with Norway to protect undersea cables and counter Russian submarines, demonstrating leadership on security but with limited direct impact on his political standing.
Starmer faces backlash over teen social‑media ban proposal
Starmer’s suggestion to consider an Australia‑style ban on under‑16 social‑media use sparked debate about civil liberties, adding to political fatigue and nudging the market upward.
Starmer schedules live press conference on Strait of Hormuz crisis
June 30 jumps to 43%13%
Starmer announced a live press conference on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which temporarily eased market anxiety about his foreign‑policy competence. The June 30 price rose modestly from 30 % (11 Jan) to 43 % (6 Feb) after the announcement, indicating a short‑term confidence boost.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping, announces deeper UK‑China ties
The high‑profile meeting produced trade deals but also revived criticism that Starmer is too close to China, sustaining market pressure on his tenure.
Starmer visits China, seeks to deepen UK-China strategic partnership
December 31 rises to 56%3%
Starmer's visit to China and meeting with President Xi Jinping aimed to improve diplomatic and economic ties amid global turbulence. While it showcased Starmer's international engagement, it had limited effect on his domestic political challenges.
Keir Starmer considers resignation amid Labour Party crisis
June 30 surges to 64%36%
Reports surfaced that Keir Starmer was contemplating resignation due to a political crisis within the Labour Party following poor local election results and internal divisions. This news increased market expectations for his resignation by June 30, 2026, reflecting heightened instability in the government.
Labour MPs increasingly doubt Starmer's leadership amid ongoing crises
December 31 jumps to 70%5%
Continued internal party dissatisfaction and repeated crises erode confidence in Starmer's leadership, keeping market prices elevated for his potential departure by year-end.
UK government agrees to release documents on Mandelson’s ambassador appointment
December 31 rises to 71%4%
The government agreed to release documents related to Mandelson’s appointment to address mounting anger and opposition demands, keeping the scandal in public focus and maintaining pressure on Starmer.
Starmer defends UK stance on Arctic security amid US‑China tensions
AP covered Starmer’s comments on Arctic security, reinforcing his image as a steady leader and contributing to a modest rise in the December‑31 contract.
YouGov poll shows Starmer’s approval at record low
December 31 jumps to 71%5%
A YouGov poll released showing Starmer’s approval slipping to a historic low triggered a modest rise in the “December 31” price (from 66 % on 23 Feb to 71 % on 2 Mar). The market interpreted the poll as evidence that opposition to Starmer was growing.
Starmer visits Palantir's Washington HQ with Lord Mandelson, breaching ministerial code
December 31 rises to 64%3%
Starmer's undisclosed visit to Palantir's offices with Mandelson, a client of Mandelson's lobbying firm, raised allegations of ministerial code breaches, undermining his credibility and increasing market doubts about his tenure.
Market confidence in Starmer's survival rises amid cabinet support
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
Following the crisis, Starmer's cabinet publicly backed him, easing fears of an imminent resignation and causing market prices for his continued premiership to increase notably.
Labour suffers losses in local elections, Starmer refuses to quit
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
Labour's poor performance in local and regional elections was seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, with significant losses and gains by Reform UK, increasing pressure on Starmer but he vowed to stay, affecting market confidence.
Peter Mandelson arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office
December 31 surges to 73%22%
Following the release of Epstein-related documents, British police arrested Mandelson, intensifying the scandal and increasing pressure on Starmer, which caused a sharp rise in the December 31 market price.
Starmer vows not to quit after local elections deliver losses for Labour
May 31 jumps to 31%12%
Following poor local and regional election results in May 2026, Starmer insisted he would not resign despite significant losses for Labour and gains for Reform UK. This tempered market expectations for an immediate departure, causing some price volatility especially for the May 31 and May 19 outcomes.
Labour faces special election loss in Greater Manchester, raising leadership concerns
June 30 drops to 43%7%
The anticipated loss in a Greater Manchester special election intensified speculation about Starmer's leadership future, contributing to a decline in market confidence for his continuation through mid-2026.
UK police arrest Peter Mandelson over alleged misconduct linked to Epstein
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation and arrested Mandelson on suspicion of misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. This intensified the political crisis for Starmer, undermining his leadership and increasing calls for his resignation.
Peter Mandelson arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office
December 31 rises to 63%2%
British police arrested Mandelson amid allegations he shared sensitive government information with Epstein, intensifying the scandal and increasing pressure on Starmer's leadership, reflected in market price volatility.
Peter Mandelson arrested amid Epstein scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer
December 31 surges to 73%21%
The arrest of Mandelson, Starmer's appointee and Epstein associate, escalated the political crisis, severely undermining Starmer's judgment and increasing calls for his resignation, causing market volatility.
Starmer apologises for Mandelson appointment, vows transparency
Starmer publicly apologized for appointing Mandelson and promised to release related documents, attempting to calm party unrest. The apology was enough to halt the price surge, causing a modest pull‑back.
Starmer cancels plan to delay local elections amid legal challenge
May 31 jumps to 41%13%
Starmer reversed his decision to delay local elections in 30 councils after a legal challenge from Reform UK, highlighting his policy instability and contributing to declining approval ratings.
Labour think tank funded smear campaign against journalists investigating party funding
December 31 rises to 66%2%
Revelations that Labour Together funded a smear campaign against journalists investigating undeclared donations added to negative media coverage and internal party tensions affecting Starmer's standing.
Keir Starmer reverses plan to delay local elections in England
December 31 surges to 71%15%
Starmer's U-turn on delaying local elections damaged his credibility and worsened internal party dissatisfaction, accelerating speculation about his potential resignation and impacting market prices for his departure by year-end.
Labour think tank linked to Starmer funds smear campaign against journalists
Labour Together, associated with Starmer allies, funded a campaign to discredit journalists investigating party funding, intensifying negative media coverage and political pressure on Starmer, affecting market sentiment on his tenure.
Starmer’s chief of staff quits, citing Mandelson scandal
A second senior aide, Morgan McSweeney, stepped down, reinforcing the narrative of a collapsing inner circle and pushing the market sharply toward a “Yes” outcome.
Mandelson investigation opened, Starmer apologises
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
Metropolitan Police opened a criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson’s alleged leaks to Epstein, and Starmer publicly apologized, causing a sharp rise in Yes prices for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer announces joint UK‑Norway naval patrols to protect undersea cables
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
A defence agreement with Norway to hunt Russian submarines and safeguard critical infrastructure was presented as a strong security move, boosting confidence in Starmer’s leadership.
Peter Mandelson fired as UK ambassador amid Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 62%10%
The firing of Mandelson, a controversial figure appointed by Starmer, amid revelations of his relationship with Epstein and security vetting failures, intensified calls for Starmer's resignation and destabilized his government.
Starmer faces furious Labour MPs after McSweeney resignation as he battles to save premiership
Starmer faced intense pressure from Labour MPs following the resignation of his Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney, highlighting internal party dissent and weakening his leadership position, which influenced market odds for his resignation by December 31.
Starmer defuses leadership crisis after Mandelson scandal but doubts linger
December 31 jumps to 64%11%
Starmer managed to survive a leadership challenge in February 2026 following the Mandelson appointment fallout, stabilizing the December 31 outcome price temporarily, though skepticism about his leadership remained.
Starmer defuses leadership crisis amid Mandelson fallout
December 31 surges to 71%17%
Starmer managed to fend off calls for resignation after the Mandelson appointment controversy, stabilizing his position temporarily and causing a peak in the December 31 outcome price to 71%.
Revelation that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
December 31 surges to 73%21%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security vetting before taking the ambassador post in early 2025, contradicting Starmer's claim of full due process. This led to a sharp rise in market prices for Starmer's departure by December 31 and June 30, reflecting increased risk to his leadership.
Starmer faces parliamentary pressure after police open Mandelson investigation
Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into former ambassador Peter Mandelson over alleged leaks to Jeffrey Epstein. The development revived questions about Starmer’s judgment and raised the risk of a leadership challenge, pushing the December‑31 price sharply upward.
Keir Starmer faces mutinous MPs after McSweeney resignation over Mandelson scandal
May 31 jumps to 32%13%
Morgan McSweeney resigned as chief of staff over his role in appointing Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as US ambassador despite vetting concerns. This triggered internal Labour dissent and intensified pressure on Starmer.
Director of Communications Tim Allan resigns amid Mandelson scandal
December 31 rises to 70%4%
Tim Allan resigned as Director of Communications shortly after McSweeney, further destabilizing Starmer's administration and intensifying calls for his resignation from opposition and some Labour figures.
Calls for Keir Starmer's resignation intensify amid Mandelson-Epstein scandal
June 30 surges to 42%20%
Following revelations about Peter Mandelson's ties to Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer faced mounting pressure with resignations of key aides and public calls for his departure, causing a sharp increase in market speculation about his potential exit by mid-2026.
Ipsos poll records Starmer’s net approval at –46 in February 2026
December 31 jumps to 68%7%
An Ipsos poll released on 9 February 2026 showed Starmer’s net approval at a historic low of –46, triggering a sudden surge in the “December 31” market (price rose from 61 % to 68 % that day). The market interpreted the deepening unpopularity as a sign that a resignation could be imminent before year‑end.
Communications Director Tim Allan resigns amid Mandelson scandal
Tim Allan resigned shortly after McSweeney, reflecting escalating pressure on Starmer's administration and contributing to market uncertainty about Starmer's survival, influencing the December 31 outcome price upward.
Starmer refuses to resign despite mounting calls amid Mandelson scandal
December 31 rises to 71%1%
Despite calls from Labour MPs and public pressure, Starmer declares he is 'not prepared to walk away,' surviving an immediate leadership challenge and temporarily stabilizing market expectations.
Keir Starmer's Director of Communications Tim Allan resigns
December 31 jumps to 82%12%
Tim Allan resigned shortly after McSweeney, signaling deep turmoil within Starmer's administration and accelerating market expectations of Starmer's exit by end of 2025 or early 2026.
Starmer vows to fight on despite leadership crisis
June 30 surges to 46%17%
Starmer publicly declared he would not resign amid intense pressure, rallying cabinet support and stabilizing his position temporarily, which was reflected in a rebound in market prices for his continued tenure.
Starmer condemns Russian GRU cyber‑attack, announces sanctions
A strong stance against Russia, including sanctions on alleged GRU officers, was intended to showcase leadership but also highlighted security challenges, marginally increasing resignation risk perception.
Starmer rejects calls to resign amid Labour turmoil
Following the resignation of close adviser Morgan McSweeney and growing internal party dissent, Starmer publicly declared he was not prepared to step down, temporarily stabilizing his position.
Starmer releases documents on Mandelson’s vetting process
December 31 drops to 62%8%
Starmer’s promise to publish vetting files was seen as an attempt to contain the scandal, but the partial release further eroded confidence, contributing to a dip from 70% to 62% on February 13.
Starmer says he was misled about Mandelson’s security vetting
December 31 jumps to 62%7%
Starmer told Parliament that he had been misled about Mandelson’s vetting, claiming “full due process” had been followed. The admission intensified speculation of a cover‑up, causing the “December 31” market to jump from 55 % to 62 % between 9‑14 Feb 2026.
Calls for Starmer to step down amid Mandelson-Epstein scandal
June 30 drops to 40%10%
Following revelations about Peter Mandelson’s ties to Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer faced intensified calls to resign, creating a leadership crisis that affected market confidence in his tenure lasting through mid-2026.
Starmer secures UK‑US trade deal reducing tariffs on key industries
AP reported a trade agreement with the United States that was seen as a major economic win for Starmer, driving the December‑31 contract to a new high in early February.
Starmer’s chief of staff and communications director quit amid Mandelson fallout
June 30 drops to 28%7%
Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned on 8 Feb 2026, followed by communications director Tim Allan on 9 Feb 2026, after the Mandelson‑veting controversy. The resignations amplified internal turmoil and caused the market’s Yes probability for the “June 30” outcome to dip from 35 % to the low‑20 % range as traders bet the government was losing cohesion.
Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment
December 31 surges to 66%16%
Morgan McSweeney resigned as Starmer's Chief of Staff due to fallout from the Peter Mandelson ambassadorial appointment scandal, signaling deep troubles within Starmer's inner circle and accelerating market doubts about his tenure.
Chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein row
June 30 surges to 47%21%
Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned after being blamed for pushing the Mandelson appointment. The resignation was portrayed as a major blow to Starmer’s inner circle, prompting a sharp rise in the “June 30” market (+21 pts from 26 % to 47 % on 3‑6 Feb).
Starmer’s chief of staff and communications director quit amid Mandelson scandal
June 15 plunges to 8%42%
Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned on 8 Feb, followed by communications director Tim Allan on 9 Feb, both over the Mandelson vetting row. The double resignation dramatically increased market confidence that Starmer would leave, pushing the June 15 outcome down from 50 % to 8 % and the June 30 outcome from 36 % to 31 %.
Resignations of Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney and Director of Communications Tim Allan amid Mandelson scandal
December 31 surges to 72%21%
Following revelations about Peter Mandelson's failed security vetting and his controversial appointment as UK ambassador to the US, Starmer's Chief of Staff and Director of Communications resigned, signaling deep turmoil in his administration and accelerating market expectations of his departure.
Starmer's Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment
Morgan McSweeney resigned as Starmer's Chief of Staff, taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Mandelson despite the vetting issues. This resignation highlighted internal turmoil and weakened Starmer's position.
Starmer's Chief of Staff and Communications Director resign amid Mandelson scandal
December 31 surges to 70%19%
Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan resigned within 24 hours over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. This intensified doubts about Starmer's leadership and triggered a market drop in short-term exit odds.
UK police launch criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson over Epstein leaks
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
The launch of a formal police probe heightened pressure on Starmer, coinciding with a jump in the December‑31 price from 62% to 70% as traders priced in a possible leadership crisis.
Peter Mandelson resigns as UK Ambassador amid Epstein scandal
Peter Mandelson resigned following revelations of his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, triggering a major political scandal that undermined Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership and led to calls for his resignation.
Metropolitan Police confirm searches related to Mandelson scandal amid calls for Starmer resignation
Police searches in Wiltshire and Camden related to the Mandelson scandal intensified scrutiny on Starmer, with former Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman warning Starmer risks being toppled unless he takes action. This increased market perception of Starmer's vulnerability, pushing resignation odds higher for the December 31 outcome.
Keir Starmer apologises over Mandelson Epstein scandal amid political fallout
June 30 drops to 28%12%
Starmer publicly apologised for appointing Peter Mandelson, who was linked to Jeffrey Epstein, damaging his leadership credibility and triggering calls for resignation. This scandal led to a sharp decline in market confidence for Starmer's tenure beyond June 30, 2026.
Starmer's chief of staff and communications director resign over Mandelson scandal
December 31 jumps to 63%13%
Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan resigned within 24 hours amid fallout from Peter Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein association, accelerating market doubts about Starmer's tenure.
Starmer admits Mandelson lied during vetting, announces removal from Privy Council
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
Starmer publicly acknowledged Peter Mandelson's dishonesty during security vetting and announced his removal from the Privy Council, intensifying scrutiny on Starmer's leadership and triggering resignations within his team.
Keir Starmer faces political crisis amid Peter Mandelson scandal
December 31 surges to 66%15%
Starmer's premiership was severely damaged after revelations about Peter Mandelson's links to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, leading to public apologies and calls for Starmer's resignation. This scandal undermined confidence in his leadership and triggered ministerial resignations.
Starmer admits knowledge of Mandelson‑Epstein ties, apologises in Parliament
December 31 surges to 73%22%
A scandal erupted when Starmer admitted he knew about Peter Mandelson’s relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and had appointed him as ambassador to Washington. The story dominated news cycles and caused a sharp rise in the “Starmer out by Dec 31” price – from 51 % on 2 Feb to 73 % on 9 Feb (priceBefore = 51, priceAfter = 73).
Starmer claims Mandelson passed security vetting despite evidence to contrary
December 31 jumps to 62%6%
At a press conference, Starmer stated that Mandelson had cleared security vetting, contradicting reports that he failed. This misstatement intensified calls for Starmer's resignation and led to a spike in resignation odds, pushing the December 31 outcome price higher.
Starmer admits Mandelson lied about Epstein ties and faces calls to resign
During Prime Minister's Questions, Starmer stated that Peter Mandelson had lied repeatedly about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, leading to increased scrutiny and calls for Starmer's resignation. This event marked a significant escalation in the scandal, impacting market sentiment on Starmer's tenure.
Police open criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson over alleged Epstein leaks
December 31 jumps to 68%7%
The launch of a police investigation into Mandelson’s alleged misconduct heightened pressure on Starmer, who had appointed him, leading to a sharp price jump as traders priced in a higher risk of his resignation.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein revelations
June 30 surges to 48%26%
Morgan McSweeney quit, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment; the resignation intensified scrutiny of Starmer’s judgment and drove the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes sharply upward.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson‑Epstein revelations
May 31 jumps to 26%7%
The same resignation also caused a dramatic swing in the May‑31 outcome as traders priced in a higher risk of an imminent resignation.
Starmer fights for political survival amid deepening crisis
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
Starmer is described as fighting for his political life amid the deepest crisis of his premiership, with political analysts raising the probability of a leadership bid and removal this year, causing market prices to spike.
Peter Mandelson scandal deepens, damaging Starmer's leadership
December 31 drops to 61%9%
The release of new files about Peter Mandelson's relationship with Jeffrey Epstein led to Starmer dismissing Mandelson and taking political damage. This scandal contributed to declining confidence in Starmer's leadership, reflected in market price drops for near-term outcomes.
Starmer defuses leadership crisis over Mandelson appointment
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
Starmer managed to quell immediate leadership challenges after some Labour lawmakers called for his resignation over the Mandelson scandal, stabilizing market prices temporarily for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer says Mandelson repeatedly lied about Epstein ties at PMQs
June 30 surges to 49%23%
During Prime Minister’s Questions Starmer publicly accused former ambassador Peter Mandelson of lying about his Epstein connections, reigniting internal turmoil and prompting a brief rebound in “June 30” odds (up ~23 points to 49 %).
Starmer faces crisis as Mandelson-Epstein scandal triggers resignations
December 31 jumps to 62%11%
The appointment of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador amid Epstein links causes resignations of Starmer's chief of staff and communications director, deepening the leadership crisis and raising market fears of imminent departure.
Keir Starmer visits China to promote trade and diplomatic relations
December 31 dips to 51%2%
Starmer's high-profile visit to China aimed to strengthen economic ties and showcased his active foreign policy, possibly stabilizing market sentiment temporarily.
Starmer rallies cabinet support amid leadership crisis over Mandelson scandal
December 31 rises to 52%4%
Senior Cabinet ministers publicly backed Starmer despite the ongoing Mandelson scandal and leadership challenges, stabilizing market confidence somewhat for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer announces China visit amid US‑UK tensions
May 31 jumps to 27%8%
Starmer’s planned trip to China to seek a strategic partnership was announced, raising hopes for economic gains but also sparking criticism from US allies, nudging Yes prices for the May 31 outcome upward.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment scandal
June 30 surges to 57%29%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein triggered a political crisis for Starmer, with calls for his resignation and cabinet ministers rallying around him. This event caused a sharp increase in the market's probability for Starmer leaving by June 30 and December 31.
Wes Streeting urged Starmer to sack him for disloyalty amid leadership tensions
June 30 drops to 23%5%
Internal Labour Party tensions escalated with cabinet ministers calling for action against Wes Streeting, who was preparing a leadership challenge, increasing pressure on Starmer's position.
Starmer announces new UK‑Japan cybersecurity and critical minerals pact
The AP article on the UK‑Japan agreement highlighted Starmer’s active foreign policy, which helped push the December‑31 contract back up toward its peak.
Release of Epstein files reveals Mandelson’s continued ties and alleged misconduct
December 31 jumps to 62%9%
The U.S. Justice Department released millions of Epstein-related documents showing Mandelson’s ongoing relationship with Epstein and possible sharing of sensitive government information, leading to police investigations and further damaging Starmer’s standing, pushing December 31 outcome prices higher.
Starmer and Xi Jinping call for deeper UK-China ties amid global turbulence
Starmer's diplomatic engagement with China aimed to boost economic growth and stability, which helped moderate negative market sentiment but did not significantly alter leadership risk perceptions.
UK police open criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson over alleged leaks to Epstein
December 31 rises to 56%3%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into Mandelson for misconduct in public office related to sharing sensitive information with Epstein, escalating the scandal and increasing pressure on Starmer's leadership through December 31, 2025.
Labour suffers poor local election results, Starmer admits mistakes and promises change
December 31 dips to 48%3%
Following disappointing election outcomes, Starmer publicly took responsibility and pledged a fresh direction, reflecting internal party challenges and affecting market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer heads to China for strategic partnership talks
The prime minister’s four‑day visit to Beijing was framed as an economic boost but drew criticism at home, creating uncertainty about his foreign‑policy stance and nudging the market higher.
Labour Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns, citing lost confidence in Starmer
December 31 plunges to 30%17%
Streeting's resignation was a major blow to Starmer's leadership, signaling a significant loss of support within the cabinet and escalating the leadership crisis.
Labour suffers disastrous local election results, leadership challenge intensifies
December 31 rises to 60%1%
Following poor local election outcomes, Starmer faces mounting pressure with leadership challengers emerging, notably Catherine West, and calls for a fresh direction, increasing market odds of his departure.
Public pessimism grows over Starmer's leadership and economic outlook
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Commentators and public figures expressed bleak predictions for Starmer's tenure in 2026, citing lack of charisma and leadership, which contributed to market sentiment favoring his exit by year-end.
Political analyst predicts Keir Starmer will be gone by mid-2026 after poor public support
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
Public pessimism and expert predictions about Starmer's leadership longevity contributed to market price increases for his departure by year-end 2025 and beyond.
Starmer says rumours of his exit are ‘rife’ but he will stay
December 31 jumps to 66%9%
Starmer told MPs on the Liaison Committee that rumours of his departure were “rife”, but vowed to stay. The comment came just before the market’s biggest swing (+11 points on 2025‑12‑17) as bettors reassessed the likelihood of a year‑end ouster, pushing the “December 31” probability up to 66 % by 2025‑12‑16.
Starmer announces new year plan to cut cost of living and woo MPs
December 31 jumps to 65%6%
In an effort to regain public and party support, Starmer outlined plans to reduce the cost of living and engage MPs, aiming to stabilize his leadership and improve market sentiment about his tenure lasting through 2026.
Labour MPs debate Starmer’s future amid internal party unrest
December 31 rises to 60%1%
As the year ended, Labour MPs were actively discussing whether Starmer should remain leader, reflecting ongoing instability and uncertainty that influenced market expectations for his tenure through December 31, 2025.
Starmer’s approval sinks below –40 in latest polls
December 31 jumps to 71%8%
PollBludger reported on 27 December 2025 that recent YouGov and Ipsos surveys placed Starmer’s net approval below –40, with a record –61 in one poll. This negative shock buoyed the “December 31” market again, pushing the implied Yes‑probability to a new high of 71 % by early 2026.
Starmer announces investigation into Mandelson‑Epstein files
Starmer pledged to release government emails related to Mandelson’s vetting, signalling a possible accountability process that heightened speculation about his political survival.
Keir Starmer publicly rebukes Wes Streeting amid early leadership challenge signs
December 31 jumps to 63%7%
Starmer publicly rejects Health Secretary Wes Streeting's pro-EU customs union comments, seen as an early leadership challenge shot, increasing political tensions and market concerns about Starmer's stability.
Wes Streeting publicly rebuffs leadership challenge rumors
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Health Secretary Wes Streeting publicly denied plotting against Starmer and criticized Downing Street's briefing as self-destructive, temporarily stabilizing Starmer's position and affecting market prices for December 31 outcome positively.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment advice
December 31 rises to 57%1%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the prime minister to appoint Mandelson, adding to the scandal and leadership crisis.
UK police open criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson
December 31 jumps to 73%11%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson for potential misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, significantly increasing pressure on Starmer.
Keir Starmer announces three Rolls-Royce SMRs to be sited at Wylfa
December 31 jumps to 62%8%
Starmer's government committed to nuclear power expansion, signaling policy focus amid political challenges, which may have temporarily bolstered market confidence in his tenure.
Starmer defuses Mandelson‑veting controversy in Parliament
December 31 jumps to 59%6%
Starmer answered parliamentary questions about the Mandelson vetting process, claiming ignorance of Epstein ties, which temporarily steadied market sentiment after earlier turmoil.
Starmer’s government announces strategic partnership with China
Starmer’s visit to Beijing and the signing of a strategic partnership were framed as a boost to the UK economy. Traders viewed the diplomatic win as a sign of political stability, nudging the December‑31 probability higher.
Starmer faces parliamentary backlash over Mandelson ambassador appointment
December 31 rises to 61%4%
After the Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting, Starmer’s handling of the appointment sparked calls for his resignation, pushing the December‑31 option up from 57% to 61%.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson‑Epstein controversy
Morgan McSweeney quit, citing the Mandelson appointment as a mistake, intensifying internal pressure on Starmer and causing a noticeable uptick in the market’s “Yes” price.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
December 31 dips to 57%3%
Starmer admitted he had 'believed Mandelson's lies' about his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, further damaging his credibility and triggering a market reaction.
UK government agrees to release documents on Mandelson's ambassador appointment
December 31 jumps to 61%7%
The UK government promised to release emails and documents related to Mandelson's appointment, aiming to quell anger but also fueling further scrutiny of Starmer's judgment, affecting market sentiment for the December 31 outcome.
Local elections deliver heavy losses for Labour
June 30 jumps to 42%7%
The bruising local and regional elections saw Labour lose more than half the seats it defended, intensifying speculation about Starmer’s tenure and lifting Yes prices for the June 30 outcome.
Labour suffers poor local election results, intensifying leadership crisis
December 31 drops to 37%7%
The disappointing election outcomes further eroded Starmer's support within the party and among the public, leading to increased calls for his resignation and ministerial resignations.
Starmer meets US President Trump to discuss NATO and Greenland
AP reported a high‑profile meeting between Starmer and Trump, which temporarily raised concerns about UK‑US relations and caused a short‑term dip in the December‑31 contract.
Starmer meets with European leaders amid ongoing political pressure
December 31 rises to 60%3%
Starmer's engagement with European leaders highlighted his efforts to maintain international standing despite domestic turmoil, but did not significantly improve market confidence in his near-term tenure.
Starmer meets with Ukraine and European leaders amid ongoing crises
December 31 rises to 60%2%
Starmer met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and European leaders, highlighting his role in international diplomacy. However, this did not alleviate domestic political pressures from the Mandelson scandal and economic challenges.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson as ambassador despite Epstein ties, intensifying pressure on Starmer and fueling market uncertainty about his tenure, pushing December 31 outcome prices higher.
Starmer meets President Xi in Beijing, seeking economic boost
December 31 rises to 57%4%
Starmer’s high‑profile visit to China was framed as a bid to revive the UK economy, but domestic critics warned the trip could backfire politically, causing a modest rise in the market’s expectation of his removal.
Starmer meets Xi Jinping to seek thaw in UK-China relations
December 31 rises to 57%4%
Starmer's visit to China aimed to boost the UK economy and improve diplomatic ties, but also highlighted tensions with the US and internal party concerns, impacting perceptions of his leadership stability.
Starmer faces parliamentary showdown after Mandelson appointment scandal erupts
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Senior ministers rallied behind Starmer as MPs demanded answers over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador despite failed security vetting, raising doubts about Starmer’s leadership and pushing the December‑31 outcome higher.
CNN poll: Starmer the most unpopular UK prime minister in history
December 31 jumps to 63%6%
A CNN poll released on 30 Nov 2025 showed Starmer as the most unpopular UK prime minister on record (approval 13 %). The poll’s release coincided with a price surge for the “December 31” outcome, pushing the Yes probability up to 63 % as market participants perceived a rising risk of removal.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves announces tax-hiking Budget amid leadership pressure
June 30 drops to 38%6%
The announcement of a tax-hiking Budget by Chancellor Rachel Reeves increased pressure on Starmer, with critics expecting a leadership challenge soon after, influencing market prices downward for the June 30 outcome.
Chancellor Reeves unveils tax‑hiking budget, breaking manifesto pledge
June 30 drops to 19%12%
Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a tax‑hiking budget that broke Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise taxes. The budget sparked fresh leadership‑challenge talk and pushed the “June 30” market to its lowest point of 19 % on 2026‑01‑05, while the “December 31” market remained elevated.
Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves announce autumn budget with tax increases
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The government unveiled a budget expected to break Labour’s election pledge by raising income taxes, intensifying political pressure on Starmer and fueling speculation about his leadership's longevity.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein ambassador appointment
December 31 jumps to 61%8%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson as ambassador despite Epstein ties, escalating the political storm and further undermining Starmer's leadership, impacting the December 31 market outcome.
Labour faces internal strife as Wes Streeting and others accused of plotting against Starmer
June 30 drops to 36%8%
Reports of Health Secretary Wes Streeting's leadership ambitions and internal plotting intensified the leadership crisis, undermining Starmer's authority and affecting market prices negatively for short-term outcomes.
Keir Starmer publicly criticizes Nigel Farage over racism allegations
December 31 drops to 54%5%
Starmer's public condemnation of Nigel Farage for alleged racist and antisemitic comments heightened political tensions and media scrutiny, contributing to perceptions of instability in Starmer's leadership. This event coincided with market fluctuations in late November 2025.
Starmer's Mandelson appointment under fire as opposition demands resignation
June 30 plunges to 24%19%
Local and regional election results showed Labour losing over half its seats, with the hard-right Reform UK making major gains. This triggered widespread calls for Starmer to step down and increased pressure on his leadership.
Starmer apologises for Mandelson‑Epstein revelations, promises investigation
Starmer’s public apology and the launch of a police investigation into Mandelson were covered by AP, causing a brief dip in the December‑31 contract before it recovered later in the window.
Critics say Starmer’s leadership lacks clear purpose amid ongoing crises
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Commentators and party insiders described Starmer’s leadership as directionless and ineffective, with growing disenchantment within Labour, which kept market sentiment fragile but did not trigger immediate price collapse for December 31.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein scandal
December 31 jumps to 58%7%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer's leadership stability through December 31, 2025.
Clive Lewis publicly calls for Keir Starmer's resignation amid leadership unrest
June 30 jumps to 44%13%
Clive Lewis became the first Labour MP to publicly call for Starmer's resignation following reports of plans to replace him after the November 2025 budget, signaling growing leadership challenges and impacting market confidence in Starmer's tenure through June 30.
Parliamentary allies rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, appointed ambassador to the U.S., had undisclosed ties to Jeffrey Epstein, intensifying scrutiny of Starmer’s judgment and nudging the market upward.
Is Keir Starmer facing a plot to depose him as UK prime minister?
June 30 drops to 36%8%
Al Jazeera reported a plot to depose Starmer, citing unnamed senior aides warning that any attempt to remove him would be reckless. The story coincided with a trough in the “June 30” market (‑8 points on 2025‑11‑22) and a modest rise in the “December 31” market later in November.
Reports emerge of plot to depose Starmer after November budget
December 31 rises to 56%2%
Media reports indicated plans to replace Starmer with Wes Streeting after the November 2025 budget, increasing market speculation about Starmer's potential exit and raising prices for the December 31 outcome.
Al Jazeera reports on Starmer facing a plot to depose him as UK prime minister
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Al Jazeera detailed the internal crisis within the Labour Party, highlighting the briefing crisis and the political instability surrounding Starmer's leadership, which further influenced market perceptions of his vulnerability.
Labour faces internal rebellion after poor election results
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Following poor local election results in November 2025, Labour MPs began openly calling for Starmer's resignation, with growing dissent within the party and media coverage highlighting his precarious position.
Reports emerge of plots to depose Keir Starmer after November budget
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Following the November 2025 UK budget, reports surfaced that plans to replace Starmer with Wes Streeting could be enacted, signaling the start of serious leadership challenges within the Labour Party. This news increased market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure, particularly affecting the December 31 outcome.
Reports emerge of Wes Streeting plotting against Starmer
June 30 jumps to 48%12%
News outlets reported that Health Secretary Wes Streeting was plotting against Starmer, escalating leadership tensions and contributing to market volatility, particularly a spike in the June 30 outcome price.
Labour Together funds smear campaign against journalists investigating party funding
December 31 jumps to 51%7%
Labour Together, a think tank linked to Starmer's rise, paid lobbyists to discredit journalists probing undeclared donations, revealing internal party conflicts and undermining Starmer's image amid growing scrutiny.
Plots to depose Keir Starmer emerge amid deep unpopularity
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
By mid-November 2025, Starmer faced internal party plots to remove him as UK Prime Minister due to his falling approval ratings and Labour's poor performance, signaling early signs of leadership instability.
Labour lawmakers call for new leadership following Mandelson scandal
June 30 rises to 38%4%
Following the poor election results and ongoing controversy over the Mandelson appointment, several Labour lawmakers publicly questioned Starmer's leadership and called for a change.
Starmer addresses leadership plot rumors, condemns attacks on cabinet members
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Keir Starmer publicly rejected negative briefings against his cabinet and asserted he would fight any leadership challenge, attempting to quell unrest and reassure markets ahead of the budget announcement.
Rumors of leadership challenge against Keir Starmer emerge amid political turmoil
December 31 drops to 40%10%
Reports surfaced of a potential plot to depose Starmer as Prime Minister, reflecting growing unrest within the Labour Party and concerns over his leadership amid economic stagnation and internal dissent. This news contributed to a drop in market confidence for Starmer's continued tenure by mid-2026.
Starmer denies authorizing negative briefings amid leadership plot rumors
June 30 drops to 28%5%
Facing rumors of a plot within his party to oust him, Starmer publicly denied authorizing negative briefings against rivals, reflecting internal party strife and contributing to a decline in confidence for the June 30 outcome.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting denies plotting to oust Starmer amid government crisis
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Wes Streeting publicly denied rumors of plotting against Starmer, but the government faced a crisis with speculation about leadership challenges intensifying just weeks before the budget, impacting market perceptions of Starmer's stability.
Guardian reports early whispers of Wes Streeting leadership challenge
June 30 plunges to 32%19%
A Guardian article reported that Wes Streeting was quietly preparing a leadership challenge, which began a period of internal rumblings that coincided with a trough in “June 30” odds (32 % on 9 Nov 2025). The news likely contributed to the market’s decline during November 2025.
Labour Party faces internal rebellion with calls for Starmer to resign
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Following poor local election results, over 70 Labour MPs publicly called for Keir Starmer to resign, marking a significant internal party crisis and weakening his hold on power. This increased market doubts about Starmer's longevity as PM.
Keir Starmer's allies brief journalists on readiness to face leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
Downing Street's briefing that Starmer was prepared to fight a leadership challenge marked a public acknowledgment of internal party tensions, contributing to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Keir Starmer publicly prepares to fight off Labour leadership challenge
December 31 drops to 40%10%
Starmer's allies briefed the media that he is ready to contest any leadership challenge following poor election prospects and internal party dissent, signaling political instability and raising market uncertainty about his tenure.
Downing Street signals Starmer ready to fight leadership challenge
June 30 jumps to 48%14%
An anonymous Starmer ally briefed journalists that the Prime Minister would fight any leadership challenge, a move seen as political self-harm that intensified internal party conflict and affected market prices for June 30 and December 31 outcomes.
Keir Starmer's allies publicly acknowledge leadership challenge brewing
June 30 drops to 36%8%
Downing Street allies openly briefed journalists that Starmer was ready to face a leadership challenge, signaling internal party strife and increasing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Downing Street briefings reveal Starmer ready to fight leadership challenge
December 31 dips to 48%2%
An anonymous briefing from Starmer's allies warning of his readiness to face leadership challenges backfired, highlighting internal party divisions and weakening his position. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in confidence for his short-term survival.
Downing Street allies publicly challenge Health Secretary Wes Streeting amid leadership rumors
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
No 10 briefed journalists that Starmer was ready to face a leadership challenge, targeting Wes Streeting, which backfired and highlighted internal party divisions, undermining Starmer's authority and increasing market uncertainty.
Mandelson fails security vetting as Starmer leadership crisis deepens
December 31 jumps to 35%7%
The Guardian revealed Peter Mandelson failed security vetting for the U.S. ambassador post, triggering a major scandal that undermined Starmer's judgment and led to the Foreign Office chief's resignation. This caused significant price swings across all outcomes.
Starmer's allies publicly warn of leadership challenge amid internal party strife
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Downing Street allies briefed journalists that Starmer was ready to face a leadership challenge, escalating public perception of instability and affecting market prices negatively for short-term exit outcomes.
Leaked brief warns Starmer prepared for leadership challenge
June 30 drops to 36%8%
A leaked Downing Street briefing warned that Starmer was ready to “fight any leadership challenge,” spotlighting an imminent internal revolt. The report sparked a sharp fall in the “June 30” market (‑8 points on 2025‑11‑22) and a brief rise then fall in the “December 31” market.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political storm and raising doubts about Starmer's leadership, contributing to market uncertainty for the December 31 outcome.
Senior Cabinet ministers rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson security vetting scandal
December 31 rises to 58%4%
Starmer received public support from senior ministers after revelations that Mandelson failed security checks but was appointed ambassador, temporarily stabilizing his position and affecting market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer faces calls to resign after local elections deliver losses for Labour
June 30 drops to 23%10%
Labour suffered significant losses in local elections, seen as a referendum on Starmer's leadership amid ongoing scandals and economic struggles. Despite pressure, Starmer refused to resign, impacting market confidence negatively for the June 30 outcome.
UK leader’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment amid Epstein scandal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite Epstein ties, intensifying pressure on Starmer's leadership and causing market shifts for the December 31 outcome.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment scandal
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein sparked a political crisis for Starmer, with calls for his resignation and internal party dissent. This caused a significant rise in the December 31 outcome price as the risk of Starmer leaving increased.
Labour Party suffers major losses in local and regional elections
December 31 drops to 44%6%
The governing Labour Party experienced significant losses in local and regional elections, which were widely viewed as a referendum on Starmer's leadership and his handling of the Mandelson scandal.
Allies rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson‑Epstein controversy
Senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after the revelation that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, had been appointed ambassador to the United States despite failing security vetting. The show of party unity temporarily halted the market’s slide.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigns amid leadership crisis
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Wes Streeting resigned from the cabinet, citing lost confidence in Starmer's leadership and signaling a serious leadership challenge, which caused market prices for Starmer's departure to rise.
Starmer aides warn against leadership challenge ahead of autumn budget
December 31 jumps to 51%11%
Senior aides to Keir Starmer publicly described any attempt to remove him before the November 26 budget as "reckless" and "dangerous," aiming to deter internal party plots and stabilize market confidence ahead of a critical fiscal announcement.
Starmer faces parliamentary revolt over Mandelson appointment
December 31 rises to 54%4%
Senior ministers publicly backed Starmer as opposition lawmakers demanded his resignation over the appointment of Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, to the U.S. ambassadorship, pushing Yes prices higher for the December 31 outcome.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein appointment sparks leadership crisis
December 31 rises to 53%3%
Senior ministers publicly defended Starmer after the revelation that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed ambassador to the U.S. despite failed security vetting, intensifying pressure for a leadership challenge.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson appointment sparks leadership doubts
Cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after the revelation that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed ambassador to the U.S. despite failing security vetting, raising questions about Starmer’s judgment and prompting a price rise for a resignation outcome.
Revelations emerge that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
December 31 surges to 74%30%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security checks before becoming UK ambassador to the US, raising questions about Starmer's judgment and triggering political fallout. This news caused a sharp increase in market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure through December 31, 2025.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein sparked a political crisis, with calls for Starmer's resignation and internal party dissent, causing market uncertainty.
Revelation of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties rocks Starmer government
December 31 rises to 54%4%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, despite Starmer's claims of full due process. This scandal led to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant and intensified calls for Starmer's resignation, causing market prices for Starmer's departure to rise significantly for the December 31 outcome.
UK Prime Minister’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
December 31 jumps to 60%6%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the political storm and raising doubts about Starmer's leadership, which pushed market prices higher for Starmer's exit by December 31.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies
June 30 dips to 34%3%
Starmer publicly apologized, acknowledging he had believed Mandelson's claims about the Epstein connection. This admission further damaged his credibility.
Starmer visits China seeking economic boost amid domestic challenges
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer’s trip to China aimed to improve UK-China relations and secure economic investment to counteract domestic political and economic difficulties, providing some support to his leadership but with ongoing uncertainty reflected in market prices for June 30 outcome.
Starmer remains unpopular but resilient amid political volatility
June 30 rises to 34%1%
Despite being the most unpopular UK Prime Minister ever, Starmer has shown resilience, recovering from setbacks and avoiding resignation, which tempered market expectations for his ousting by mid-2025.
Starmer apologizes to Epstein victims, admits Mandelson lied
June 30 dips to 33%2%
Starmer publicly apologized to victims of Jeffrey Epstein for appointing Mandelson, acknowledging the ambassador had lied about his relationship with Epstein. This admission increased political pressure but did not immediately trigger resignation, reflected in a slight market price decline.
Labour suffers electoral setback and internal party defeats
June 30 dips to 33%3%
Labour's poor performance in a by-election and internal party defeats, including the election of a critical MP to a key position, further weakened Starmer's position and reduced market confidence in his tenure by June 30, 2025.
Starmer reshuffles team amid leadership pressure
June 30 dips to 33%3%
In an effort to regain political initiative after a troubled year, Starmer conducted a reshuffle of his senior team, pushing out some progressive allies. This was seen as a move to consolidate control but also highlighted ongoing instability, contributing to a slight decline in market confidence about his tenure.
Labour MPs warn local election wipeout could end Starmer's leadership
June 30 dips to 33%2%
Following poor local election results, several Labour MPs warned that a wipeout would likely lead to Starmer's removal as leader, increasing political pressure but not immediate resignation. Market prices remained low, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about his tenure.
Starmer rejects calls to resign over Mandelson appointment despite pressure
Despite mounting pressure and calls for resignation from opposition and some within his party, Starmer publicly rejected demands to step down, asserting due process was followed. This stance stabilized the market somewhat, preventing further price declines for the June 30 outcome.
Poll shows only a quarter of Labour members want Starmer to resign if Senedd election lost
June 30 rises to 36%2%
A Survation poll revealed limited support within Labour membership for Starmer's resignation even if the party lost the upcoming Senedd election, reducing immediate pressure on his leadership and contributing to price stabilization.
Labour suffers crushing defeat in Caerphilly by-election, raising fears for Starmer
June 30 dips to 33%3%
Labour's vote collapsed to 11% in Caerphilly, a traditional Labour stronghold, with Plaid Cymru winning the seat. This defeat alarmed Labour MPs and intensified speculation that a similar result in the May 2026 local elections could end Starmer's premiership, causing market prices for his early exit to rise.
Starmer faces intensified scrutiny over Mandelson’s failed security vetting
June 30 drops to 33%5%
Revelations that Mandelson failed security vetting before his ambassadorial appointment and that Starmer may have misled Parliament intensified calls for his resignation, increasing political instability and impacting market confidence in Starmer’s survival through June 30.
Starmer begins China visit to boost trade and ease political pressure
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer travelled to Beijing for talks with President Xi Jinping, aiming to secure economic benefits and demonstrate diplomatic strength. The move was interpreted as a positive signal for the government’s stability, prompting a modest rebound in the June‑30 price.
Market trough at 34% after local election losses for Labour
The market fell to 34% on October 20 following the local election results showing Labour losses and Reform UK gains, further undermining Starmer's position. This was part of a broader market trend from 38% to 33% on October 29.
Labour suffers major losses in local elections, Starmer under pressure
June 30 dips to 33%1%
Labour suffered significant losses in local elections, with Reform UK making major gains, further damaging Starmer's popularity and triggering calls for him to step down.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham from Parliament bid
June 30 rises to 34%3%
Labour denied Andy Burnham permission to run in a special election, sparking internal party conflict. This decision was seen as an attempt to prevent a potential leadership challenge.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
June 30 drops to 31%6%
Local and regional elections delivered significant losses for Labour and major gains for Reform UK, with Starmer's popularity plummeting. This triggered widespread calls for him to resign.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns amid Mandelson-Epstein scandal
June 30 dips to 33%4%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising the controversial appointment of Mandelson. This resignation intensified the political crisis around Starmer, contributing to a market price drop reflecting increased risk of Starmer leaving office by June 30.
Labour Party faces leadership crisis after Mandelson scandal
June 30 dips to 39%4%
The Mandelson scandal has triggered a leadership crisis within Labour, with opposition parties calling for Starmer to resign and potential rivals like Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham emerging.
Starmer faces parliamentary challenge over Mandelson Epstein scandal
June 30 dips to 40%4%
Following revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, Starmer faced intense scrutiny in Parliament. This event heightened concerns about Starmer's leadership and caused a notable market reaction, particularly impacting the June 30 outcome.
Starmer refuses to quit after heavy local‑election losses
June 30 drops to 33%5%
Following the local and regional elections that saw Labour lose more than half the seats it defended, Starmer publicly announced he would not resign. The news signaled continued internal party tension and kept the June‑30 outcome depressed as traders assessed the risk of a leadership challenge.
Downing Street briefing signals Starmer ready to fight leadership challenge
June 30 jumps to 40%5%
An unusual briefing from Starmer's allies warned potential leadership challengers that he was prepared to contest any attempt to remove him. This move was seen as a sign of internal party conflict but also Starmer's determination to remain in office, which stabilized market expectations temporarily.
Starmer Shakes Up Downing Street Team to Regain Political Initiative
June 30 rises to 44%2%
In an effort to combat falling poll numbers and establish a stronger narrative, Starmer pushed out several progressive allies in a major No 10 internal staff reshuffle.
UK sanctions Russian GRU officers over cyber‑espionage attack
The AP detailed a new sanctions package targeting Russian intelligence officers, which was interpreted as a strong security stance by Starmer and nudged the December‑31 contract upward.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment decision
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, a move that further damaged Starmer's standing within the party.
Starmer accused of pushing out progressive allies in No 10 reshuffle
June 30 rises to 42%2%
Reports emerged that Starmer was removing some of his last progressive allies in a Downing Street reshuffle, signaling internal party consolidation but also dissatisfaction among some factions. This contributed to market fluctuations but no immediate resignation risk increase.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, with Reform UK making major gains, threatening Starmer's position. This occurred during the market's price recovery phase to 43%.
Market shows slight rebound amid ongoing uncertainty over Starmer's future
June 30 jumps to 43%6%
Despite ongoing political pressure and unresolved questions about the Mandelson scandal, the market price for Starmer's resignation by June 30 rose modestly, reflecting some stabilization but continued uncertainty.
Starmer apologizes for 'believing Mandelson's lies' amid Epstein scandal
Starmer publicly apologized for having believed Mandelson's claims about the vetting process, acknowledging he was misled. This admission intensified the scandal and contributed to the market's peak at 47% on October 10.
Revelation that Peter Mandelson appointed ambassador despite failing security vetting
December 31 rises to 54%4%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security vetting before his ambassadorial appointment, contradicting Starmer's claims of full due process. This revelation led to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant and raised serious questions about Starmer's knowledge and judgment, impacting the December 31 outcome price.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
June 30 dips to 44%3%
Starmer publicly apologized for having believed Mandelson's claims about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, further undermining his credibility and intensifying calls for him to resign.
Revelations emerge that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
December 31 rises to 54%4%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson, appointed ambassador to the US by Starmer, failed security vetting, contradicting Starmer's claims of full due process. This sparked a political crisis and led to the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant, Olly Robbins, raising questions about Starmer's knowledge and judgment.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts
June 30 drops to 38%5%
AP reported that senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, had been appointed ambassador to the United States despite failing security vetting. The scandal intensified pressure on Starmer’s leadership, driving the June‑30 contract price down from its early‑October high.
Labour blocks Andy Burnham’s bid for Parliament seat amid leadership tensions
June 30 rises to 43%4%
Labour's decision to block popular Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in a parliamentary by-election fueled internal party tensions and speculation about leadership challenges to Starmer, sustaining market doubts about his position.
Revelation of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties sparks UK political crisis
December 31 jumps to 60%10%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, despite Starmer's claims of due process. This led to intense scrutiny of Starmer's judgment and integrity, causing market prices for Starmer's departure to rise significantly for the December 31 outcome.
Chancellor admits breaking housing rules by renting out family home
June 30 drops to 42%5%
Labour's chancellor admitted to 'inadvertently' breaking housing regulations by renting out her south London home without the required £945 licence, undermining Starmer's image of a squeaky clean administration and triggering market concern about government credibility.
Starmer defends his record after local election losses
June 30 rises to 46%4%
Following a poor showing in local elections, Starmer publicly refused to resign, stabilising the market and nudging the price back up to 46 % as investors reassessed the likelihood of a leadership challenge.
Starmer’s policy push yields temporary bump in polls
June 30 drops to 33%9%
The Economist’s interactive tracker posted on 5 October 2025 showed a modest uptick in Starmer’s approval after a brief policy announcement. The slight optimism coincided with a small dip in the “June 30” market (price fell from 42 % to 33 % over the following weeks).
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for US ambassador post
June 30 rises to 47%4%
The Guardian published documents showing Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before taking up the ambassadorial role, creating a major scandal that damaged Starmer's reputation and triggered political fallout.
Starmer faces scrutiny over collapsed China spy trial
June 30 rises to 38%1%
Starmer's government came under pressure over the collapse of a high-profile China spy trial, with accusations of a cover-up and weak handling of national security, damaging his credibility and increasing political risk.
Labour's future under threat as party faces leadership challenge
June 30 dips to 40%2%
With Labour's poll ratings at a low point and the party facing a leadership challenge, Starmer's position remains precarious. The market price briefly rose to 47% before settling at 40%.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for U.S. ambassador post
The Guardian published documents showing Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before taking up the ambassadorial role, damaging Starmer's reputation and triggering fallout including the Foreign Office chief's resignation. This caused a significant price swing from 43% to 47% on October 5.
US Justice Department releases Epstein-related documents showing Mandelson shared sensitive info
The US Justice Department released documents showing Mandelson shared market-sensitive information with Epstein during the 2008 financial crisis, reigniting the scandal and political pressure on Starmer. This caused a price spike to 47% before a drop to 39%.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
June 30 jumps to 44%6%
Starmer publicly apologized for 'having believed Mandelson's lies' about Epstein ties, acknowledging his judgment was flawed and further undermining his credibility with the public and party.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment
June 30 rises to 43%3%
Morgan McSweeney, Starmer's chief of staff, resigned, taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Peter Mandelson to the U.S. ambassadorship despite Epstein ties. This further intensified the political fallout.
Starmer refuses to quit after local elections deliver losses for Labour
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Following poor local election results that saw Labour suffer significant losses and gains by Reform UK, Starmer insisted he would not resign, despite growing calls within his party, causing a partial recovery in market confidence for his continued leadership past June 30.
Starmer vows not to quit after Labour suffers losses in local elections
June 30 rises to 43%3%
Following significant losses for Labour and gains for Reform UK in local elections, Starmer took responsibility but refused to resign, signaling ongoing leadership uncertainty and contributing to market fluctuations around the June 30 outcome.
Poor local election results deepen Labour Party crisis under Starmer
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, weakening Starmer’s position and fueling speculation about a leadership challenge. Starmer vowed to stay, but internal party dissent increased, keeping market uncertainty high.
Frontbench resignation deepens Labour revolt over £5bn benefits cut
June 30 rises to 47%3%
BBC covered the resignation of Labour frontbencher Vicky Foxcroft over Starmer’s £5 billion benefits cut. The internal revolt heightened perceptions of political instability, nudging the market upward to a 47 % “Yes” level on 10 Oct.
Labour faces strategic dilemma amid Reform UK challenge and internal chaos
June 30 rises to 43%3%
Analysis highlighted Labour's ongoing struggles with internal resignations and being behind Reform UK in polls, increasing doubts about Starmer's leadership and survival chances. This contributed to market volatility and a peak in the June 30 outcome price.
UK government agrees to release documents on Mandelson’s ambassador appointment
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Amid mounting anger over the Mandelson-Epstein scandal, the UK government agreed to release documents related to Mandelson’s appointment, aiming to quell criticism but keeping Starmer under pressure for his judgment and leadership.
Starmer begins diplomatic tour of China to boost trade
June 30 rises to 42%3%
Starmer travelled to Beijing for a strategic partnership meeting with President Xi, a move aimed at revitalising the economy. The visit was welcomed by markets, contributing to a modest price rise from 39 % to 42 % over the next few days.
Communications director Tim Allan resigns amid mounting pressure on Starmer
June 30 jumps to 43%6%
Tim Allan, Starmer's communications director, resigned, marking the fourth communications lead to leave under Starmer's premiership. This departure highlighted ongoing instability within Starmer's team and contributed to persistent doubts about his leadership, influencing market sentiment.
Starmer chairs emergency meeting after Manchester synagogue attack
Starmer's leadership was tested by a terrorist attack in Manchester, requiring crisis management and public reassurance, but this event had limited direct impact on market exit odds.
Local elections deliver heavy losses for Labour, boosting speculation of a leadership challenge
December 31 jumps to 57%6%
Labour suffered significant seat losses in the October 2025 local and regional elections, prompting commentators to view the results as a de‑facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership and increasing the market’s belief that he could be forced out before year‑end.
Labour Party Conference reveals government in chaos with multiple resignations
The Labour Party Conference in Liverpool revealed a government in turmoil with five consecutive resignations or firings of top officials, including No 10 strategist Tom Kibasi, deputy Angela Rayner, US ambassador Peter Mandelson, Paul Ovenden, and Steph Driver, fueling speculation about Starmer's leadership.
Keir Starmer issues statement on Manchester Synagogue attack
Starmer's response to a terrorist attack demonstrated his role as national leader during crises, but it did not significantly affect market expectations of his tenure.
Labour Party Conference exposes government turmoil and leadership doubts
June 30 rises to 40%3%
At the Labour Party Conference, multiple resignations and scandals were highlighted, including the departure of key aides and criticism of Starmer's leadership style. This fueled market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure, causing a price increase for the June 30 outcome from 37% to 40%.
Keir Starmer delivers aggressive Labour conference speech to rally support
June 30 rises to 35%2%
At the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, Starmer gave a passionate speech framing the political battle as a choice between Labour and Reform UK, attempting to regain support amid poor polling and internal party dissent. This temporarily stabilized market sentiment but did not reverse the overall downward trend.
Starmer delivers longest resignation speech at Labour conference
June 30 rises to 37%4%
At the Labour Party conference, Starmer gave a lengthy speech that critics described as a 'resignation speech,' highlighting his precarious position amid party turmoil and poor public support. This event reinforced market doubts about his political future, keeping the probability of his departure elevated.
Starmer delivers combative conference speech declaring 'fight for the soul' of Britain
June 30 rises to 39%2%
Starmer sought to reclaim political momentum and unite his party by directly attacking Nigel Farage and Reform UK during his keynote speech at the annual Labour Party conference.
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister over tax scandal
June 30 rises to 40%3%
Angela Rayner resigned on September 5, 2025, after an ethics adviser found she breached the ministerial code by underpaying stamp duty on a property purchase. Her departure weakened Starmer's government and increased speculation about his leadership stability during the analysis window.
Starmer calls for Labour unity against rising Reform UK at party conference
June 30 jumps to 38%6%
At the Labour Party conference, Starmer urged unity against the populist Reform UK party amid growing dissatisfaction with his government. This event reflected ongoing challenges but also Starmer's efforts to consolidate support, coinciding with a slight market recovery to 38% Yes for June 30.
Starmer delivers keynote speech amid party criticism
December 31 rises to 51%1%
At the Labour Conference, Starmer gave a keynote speech attempting to rally support, but faced criticism from former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and others, highlighting ongoing leadership challenges and limited market impact on his longer-term survival odds.
Starmer delivers keynote speech amid leadership criticism
June 30 rises to 34%1%
At the Labour Party conference, Starmer gave a keynote speech defending his leadership and attacking opposition, but faced criticism from former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and others, highlighting internal party divisions and leadership challenges.
Keir Starmer delivers speech at Labour Party conference amid party unrest
Starmer addressed the Labour conference emphasizing a 'fight for the soul of the country' and called for unity against the rising Reform UK party. Despite his efforts, the speech did not significantly improve his standing, and market prices remained low for his continued tenure by June 30, 2025.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns amid tax scandal
Angela Rayner resigned as Deputy Prime Minister in late September 2025 after admitting to underpaying stamp duty on a second home, triggering a cabinet reshuffle and signaling instability within Starmer's government. This event contributed to declining confidence in Starmer's leadership and Labour's internal cohesion.
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister triggering major reshuffle
December 31 drops to 43%7%
Angela Rayner's resignation in late September 2025 led to a significant cabinet reshuffle with over half of ministers changing roles or leaving government, signaling instability and contributing to market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure through December 31.
Labour Party conference highlights leadership crisis amid poor local election results
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The Labour Party conference underscored internal dissent and calls for Starmer's resignation following poor election performances, contributing to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson-Epstein ambassador appointment
June 30 rises to 44%1%
Starmer’s chief of staff resigned taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer’s judgment. This event heightened pressure on Starmer’s leadership, affecting market confidence in his tenure lasting through June 30.
Labour Party conference highlights growing calls for Starmer to resign
December 31 dips to 49%2%
The conference underscored the internal party rebellion with many MPs publicly calling for Starmer's resignation following poor election results, intensifying pressure on his leadership.
At Labour Party conference, PM Starmer’s rival steals the limelight
June 30 rises to 38%3%
The Labour Party conference opened with Andy Burnham publicly challenging Starmer’s leadership. Coverage by Reuters highlighted the internal rivalry and the possibility of a leadership contest, pushing market optimism for a June 30 resignation upward to 38 % on Sep 30.
Labour Party conference sees growing calls for Starmer to resign
December 31 rises to 54%4%
At the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, a growing number of Labour MPs publicly called for Starmer to resign, with 77 MPs demanding his departure, signaling a critical loss of party support and increasing market expectations of his exit by year-end.
Local elections deliver heavy losses for Labour, boost Reform UK
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
AP covered the September local and regional elections, showing Labour’s significant seat losses and gains for Reform UK, reinforcing perceptions of Starmer’s weakening mandate and further depressing the June 30 outcome.
Labour Party faces internal rebellion after local election losses
Labour suffered substantial losses in local elections, prompting calls for leadership change and contributing to market volatility.
Starmer named least‑popular UK prime minister in historic poll
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
A Telegraph poll released on 27 September 2025, citing Ipsos data, named Starmer the least‑popular UK prime minister on record. The stark headline spooked traders, triggering a sharp rise in the “December 31” probability, which jumped from the low‑40s to above 60 % in the following weeks.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
May 31 jumps to 44%6%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, with Starmer's popularity plummeting and the hard-right Reform UK making major gains, triggering calls for Starmer to step down.
Starmer rejects calls to resign amid mounting pressure over Mandelson scandal
June 30 rises to 38%3%
Despite growing calls from opposition and some within his party to resign over the Mandelson appointment and vetting failures, Starmer publicly rejected resignation demands, attempting to stabilize his position. This led to a partial recovery in market confidence.
Starmer's deputy David Lammy defends integrity on Mandelson appointment
June 30 rises to 38%3%
David Lammy stated that if Starmer had known about the vetting issues, he would never have appointed Mandelson, attempting to defend Starmer's judgment during the ongoing scandal.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
May 31 rises to 35%1%
Labour suffered significant losses in local and regional elections, with its poll ratings plummeting and the party facing a leadership challenge. This electoral setback increased pressure on Starmer to step down.
UK police open criminal investigation into Mandelson over alleged leaks to Epstein
June 30 rises to 38%3%
The Metropolitan Police launched a criminal investigation into Peter Mandelson for misconduct in public office related to his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, escalating the scandal and increasing political pressure on Starmer, reflected in market volatility around June 30 outcome.
Labour suffers big losses in local elections; Starmer refuses to quit
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Labour's poor performance in local elections, with significant losses and gains by Reform UK, intensified pressure on Starmer's leadership. Starmer's refusal to resign despite the setbacks contributed to ongoing market uncertainty about his tenure.
Labour suffers major losses in local and regional elections
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Labour lost more than half the seats it was defending in local elections, with Reform UK making major gains, directly threatening Starmer's position and triggering calls for him to resign.
Starmer apologizes for believing Mandelson's lies about Epstein ties
Starmer publicly apologized for having believed Mandelson's claims about his Epstein ties, acknowledging he misled Parliament. This occurred during the market's price recovery phase to 38%.
Starmer vows not to resign after local elections deliver losses for Labour
June 30 rises to 38%3%
Following poor local election results with significant losses for Labour and gains for Reform UK, Starmer took responsibility but refused to quit, stabilizing market sentiment temporarily despite ongoing leadership doubts.
Keir Starmer announces plan for digital ID cards amid migration concerns
Starmer announced plans to introduce digital ID cards to tackle illegal migration, signaling a policy shift and an attempt to regain public support. This announcement temporarily stabilized market sentiment but did not directly affect resignation odds.
Starmer dismisses leadership threat as Andy Burnham stokes talk of challenge
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Keir Starmer dismissed threats to his leadership after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham revealed that MPs had privately urged him to launch a challenge against the Prime Minister.
Starmer dismisses leadership threat after Andy Burnham reveals private encouragement to challenge PM
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Prime Minister Keir Starmer dismissed speculation about his leadership after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham revealed he had been privately urged by lawmakers to mount a challenge.
Starmer to introduce digital ID cards to tackle illegal migration
June 30 jumps to 43%5%
The Islington Gazette reported that Starmer would unveil a new digital ID scheme to curb illegal migration. The policy announcement lifted market confidence, contributing to the gradual rise from the mid‑30 % range toward a 43 % level by early October.
Starmer faces leadership challenge amid cabinet reshuffle and resignations
Starmer conducted a cabinet reshuffle following the resignation of deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and other aides, attempting to stabilize his government. However, the reshuffle was seen as rushed and failed to restore confidence, keeping resignation odds elevated.
Keir Starmer's director of communications Steph Driver resigns amid government turmoil
Steph Driver, a key communications aide to Starmer, resigned, marking another blow to the Prime Minister's team amid ongoing scandals and resignations, signaling internal instability and weakening Starmer's position.
Electoral Calculus Poll Shows Majority of Public Want Starmer to Resign
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
A new poll revealed that 54% of the British public wanted Keir Starmer to step down, with only 21% wanting him to remain, intensifying pressure on his leadership.
Andy Burnham signals potential leadership challenge to Keir Starmer
June 30 dips to 32%1%
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham publicly acknowledged that Labour MPs were urging him to challenge Starmer, increasing leadership uncertainty and pressuring Starmer's position. This contributed to market volatility and sustained lower odds for Starmer remaining PM by June 30, 2025.
Andy Burnham signals potential Labour leadership challenge to Starmer
June 30 rises to 32%1%
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham revealed that Labour MPs were urging him to challenge Starmer's leadership, increasing political pressure and uncertainty around Starmer's tenure. This news contributed to market volatility and sustained lower odds for Starmer's resignation by June 30.
Keir Starmer announces plans for digital ID cards amid migration concerns
June 30 rises to 35%2%
Starmer announced a new digital ID card system to tackle illegal migration, aiming to show government action on key issues. This policy announcement helped stabilize some market confidence temporarily.
Keir Starmer vows to fight on, refuses to resign after aide resignations
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Following the resignations, Starmer publicly declared he would not resign and expressed confidence in his leadership, which helped the market partially recover from its lows.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment scandal
June 30 jumps to 38%5%
Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson despite his Epstein ties. This intensified the political crisis around Starmer, raising questions about his leadership and judgment, contributing to market volatility.
Starmer's chief of staff resigns over Mandelson appointment advice
June 30 jumps to 33%7%
Morgan McSweeney resigned, taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, further damaging Starmer's reputation and increasing pressure for leadership change.
Local and regional elections show heavy losses for Labour
Results released showing Labour losing more than half the seats it defended signaled deep voter dissatisfaction, increasing speculation of a leadership challenge and pushing the market higher for a resignation before the end of 2025.
Starmer's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns over Mandelson appointment advice
McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson, intensifying the scandal and political pressure on Starmer's leadership. This event occurred during the market's price recovery phase.
Labour suffers local election losses, Reform UK makes gains
June 30 rises to 34%2%
Local and regional elections delivered losses for Labour and wins for Reform UK, with Starmer stating he would not resign despite poor results, causing market price to rise to 34% on Sep 20.
UK and Norway launch joint naval patrols to protect undersea cables
June 30 dips to 33%1%
AP reported that Starmer and Norway’s prime minister announced a joint naval operation to hunt Russian submarines and safeguard critical infrastructure. The diplomatic move was seen as a positive foreign‑policy achievement, helping the market recover modestly to the mid‑30 % range.
Government agrees to release Mandelson appointment files
June 30 rises to 38%4%
Starmer announced the UK would publish documents related to Mandelson’s ambassadorship, aiming to quell criticism but also highlighting the depth of the controversy, which kept pressure on Starmer and maintained the depressed price for the June 30 outcome.
More than half of Britons want Keir Starmer to resign, GB News poll finds
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
A GB News poll showed 54 % of Britons now want Starmer to resign, up sharply from earlier surveys. The dramatic rise in public demand for his departure pushed the market’s “Yes” probability down from 51 % on Sep 14 to 31 % on Sep 17, reflecting increased belief that a resignation could happen by the June 30 deadline.
Starmer attempts to stabilize leadership amid growing calls for resignation
June 30 jumps to 32%6%
Starmer made public efforts to address the crisis and reassure the public and party members, leading to a partial recovery in market prices as some confidence was restored.
US President Donald Trump meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at Chequers
December 31 dips to 51%1%
The meeting with Trump was a high-profile diplomatic event amid Starmer's domestic challenges, but it did not significantly improve his political standing or quell internal party unrest.
Market reacts to mounting pressure on Starmer amid Mandelson fallout
June 30 drops to 26%9%
Following the Mandelson vetting revelations and Robbins' dismissal, the market price for Starmer's resignation dropped to its lowest point, reflecting increased skepticism about his ability to remain in office.
Poll shows majority of Britons want Starmer to resign
June 30 rises to 33%2%
A poll revealed that 54% of Britons want Starmer to resign, reflecting widespread public dissatisfaction and increasing pressure on his leadership, which influenced market sentiment downward.
Labour MPs publicly call for Starmer's resignation over Mandelson affair
June 30 drops to 26%9%
Following the Mandelson scandal, several Labour MPs expressed frustration and openly called for Keir Starmer to resign, reflecting growing internal party dissent and weakening his leadership position, which further pushed down the market odds for his resignation by June 30.
Starmer's chief of staff and communications director resign amid Mandelson fallout
June 30 drops to 26%9%
Morgan McSweeney and Tim Allan resigned within 24 hours due to the Mandelson vetting scandal, intensifying pressure on Starmer and causing further market decline to a low point.
Polls show Starmer as least popular UK Prime Minister ever
June 30 drops to 26%11%
Polling data revealed Starmer's personal net satisfaction rating at historic lows, with widespread public dissatisfaction and Labour trailing in polls. This eroded confidence in his leadership and increased market expectations of his potential resignation by mid-2025.
Mandelson appointment scandal leads to Foreign Office top civil servant resignation
Olly Robbins, the Foreign Office's top civil servant, resigned after being forced to clear Mandelson despite vetting concerns, adding to the political fallout. This contributed to the market's low point of 27% and subsequent recovery.
Peter Mandelson security vetting scandal breaks, sparking political crisis
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting but was appointed ambassador with Foreign Office override triggered a major political scandal. This led to resignations of Starmer's chief of staff and communications director, and calls for Starmer's resignation, causing a sharp market drop.
Starmer refuses to quit after heavy local election losses
June 30 drops to 27%8%
Following local and regional elections where Labour lost more than half the seats it defended and Reform UK made gains, Starmer announced he would stay on. The poor results heightened speculation of a leadership challenge, causing the June 30 price to fall further from 35% to 27%.
Starmer's senior strategy chief resigns amid scandal
June 30 plunges to 33%18%
Paul Ovenden, a top aide to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, resigned following revelations of inappropriate past conduct, marking the third forced departure in less than two weeks and signaling deepening instability in Starmer's government. This event caused a sharp drop in confidence for the June 30 outcome.
BBC reveals Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
June 30 jumps to 57%6%
BBC reported that Peter Mandelson had failed security vetting before being appointed U.S. ambassador and that Starmer had claimed ignorance. The story triggered a surge in resignation odds, pushing the market to a 57 % “Yes” peak on the same day.
Labour MP Richard Burgon warns Starmer will be ousted if local elections end in disaster
June 30 jumps to 57%6%
Left-wing Labour MP Richard Burgon publicly warned that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would likely be forced out of office if the party suffered predicted heavy losses in the upcoming May local elections.
Starmer Strategy Chief Paul Ovenden Resigns Amid Conduct Allegations
June 30 plunges to 28%23%
Paul Ovenden, Starmer's director of political strategy, resigned over past messages containing explicit imagery about MP Diane Abbott, marking the third forced departure from Starmer's government in under two weeks.
Labour MPs Warn Starmer Could Be Ousted Next Year Following High-Profile Resignations
June 30 plunges to 30%21%
Left-wing Labour MPs warned that Keir Starmer faces being ousted as leader next year if the party suffers a disaster in the upcoming May local elections, following a series of high-profile resignations and sackings.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for US ambassador post
The Guardian published that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before taking up the ambassadorial role in early 2025, damaging Starmer's credibility and triggering a political crisis. This caused a sharp price peak to 57% before a subsequent drop to 27% on September 17.
Starmer resignation odds surge after Mandelson vetting scandal
June 30 jumps to 59%8%
Kalshi’s market data show a sharp rise from 51 % to 59 % “Yes” after Reuters‑sourced reporting revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed security vetting for the U.S. ambassador post and that the Foreign Office had over‑ruled the vetting recommendation. The revelation sparked calls for Starmer’s resignation and lifted the probability of him being out before June 2026, driving the market’s June 30 outcome higher.
Starmer faces mounting pressure after Mandelson sacked as ambassador
June 30 jumps to 44%10%
BBC reporting on 15 September detailed the pressure on Starmer after the sacking of Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador, noting that the scandal was intensifying calls for the prime minister’s resignation. The story coincided with a market trough (26 % on 17 Sep) and a subsequent rebound, marking the June 30 outcome’s movement upward.
Reports emerge of plans to replace Starmer amid internal Labour unrest
June 30 jumps to 57%6%
In September 2025, reports surfaced that groups of Labour MPs were planning to replace Keir Starmer, signaling internal party dissent and undermining his leadership stability. This contributed to initial market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure by mid-September.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
AP reported that senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, had been appointed ambassador despite failing security vetting. The scandal intensified pressure on Starmer’s leadership, prompting a sharp drop in the market’s Yes probability.
Senior Cabinet ministers back Starmer amid Mandelson security vetting scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%22%
Despite the scandal over Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties, senior Cabinet ministers publicly supported Starmer, attempting to stabilize his leadership. However, the market reacted with a sharp drop reflecting uncertainty about Starmer's future.
Starmer leads UK delegation to China for strategic partnership talks
AP reported Starmer’s four‑day visit to Beijing, aimed at deepening UK‑China ties, which helped lift longer‑dated contracts as the market saw diplomatic engagement as a sign of political stability.
Labour aide Paul Ovenden resigns over offensive texts amid leadership tensions
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Paul Ovenden, Starmer's director of political strategy, resigned after offensive texts surfaced, highlighting internal party strife and contributing to perceptions of instability within Starmer's team. This event coincided with a market price drop from 51% to 31% Yes, reflecting increased doubts about Starmer's position by June 30.
Starmer's strategy chief quits in fresh blow to crisis-hit premier
June 30 plunges to 30%21%
Prime Minister Keir Starmer suffered another blow to his administration as his director of political strategy, Paul Ovenden, resigned amid media allegations about past conduct.
Chief of staff resigns over Mandelson‑Epstein controversy
June 30 drops to 27%8%
The AP disclosed that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, quit, taking responsibility for advising the Mandelson appointment. The resignation underscored internal turmoil and further lowered confidence in Starmer’s tenure, contributing to the market’s plunge to a low of 27 % on September 17.
Starmer's strategy chief resigns amid scandal
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Keir Starmer suffered a major blow when his director of political strategy resigned following media allegations about inappropriate past conduct. This resignation was part of a series of high-profile departures that undermined confidence in his leadership and contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner resigns triggering major cabinet reshuffle
June 30 plunges to 33%18%
Angela Rayner's resignation over a tax scandal led to a significant government reshuffle, with over half of ministers leaving or changing roles, exacerbating perceptions of crisis within Starmer's administration and contributing to market uncertainty.
Labour MPs warn Starmer faces ousting if local elections fail
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Labour MPs publicly warned that unless Starmer improves Labour's performance in upcoming local elections, he risks being ousted as leader, increasing political pressure and uncertainty about his tenure, contributing to market volatility.
Starmer's senior aide Paul Ovenden resigns amid scandal
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Paul Ovenden, Starmer's director of political strategy, resigned following revelations of offensive private messages, compounding recent high-profile resignations and undermining confidence in Starmer's leadership. This event contributed to a sharp market price drop from 51% to 31% Yes for Starmer being out by June 30.
Mandelson vetting scandal revealed: Foreign Office cleared Epstein-linked politician despite security failures
June 30 plunges to 26%31%
The Guardian revealed Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming U.S. ambassador, causing a political crisis and triggering the resignation of Foreign Office's top civil servant, Olly Robbins. This scandal damaged Starmer's reputation and led to calls for his resignation.
Guardian reveals Mandelson failed security vetting for U.S. ambassador post
June 30 plunges to 27%30%
The Guardian exposed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming U.S. ambassador, creating a major scandal that damaged Starmer's reputation and triggered a sharp price drop to 27% on Sep 17.
Starmer’s chief of staff resigns over Mandelson Epstein scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer's chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned taking responsibility for advising the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein, intensifying the political crisis and raising doubts about Starmer's judgment, which pressured the market downward for the June 30 outcome.
Peter Mandelson sacked as UK ambassador amid Epstein scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Revelations about Peter Mandelson's close ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and his failed security vetting led to his dismissal as UK ambassador to the US. This event triggered a sharp decline in confidence in Prime Minister Keir Starmer's judgment, causing the market odds for his resignation by June 30 to drop significantly.
Four Labour ministers resign amid calls for Starmer to quit after local election losses
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Following devastating local election results, four junior ministers including Jess Phillips resigned from Keir Starmer's government, signaling deepening internal party dissent and increasing pressure on Starmer's leadership. This event caused a notable drop in confidence for Starmer's short-term tenure, impacting the June 30 outcome price.
Labour suffers heavy losses in UK local and regional elections
The local elections delivered a decisive defeat for Starmer’s Labour Party, with the party losing more than half the seats it defended. The result was interpreted as a de‑facto referendum on Starmer’s leadership, prompting a sharp rise in the probability he would step down before year‑end.
Allies rally behind Starmer as Mandelson‑Epstein scandal erupts
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
AP reported that senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer amid revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, received a diplomatic posting despite failing security vetting, intensifying calls for Starmer’s resignation.
Revelation of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties rocks Starmer's leadership
December 31 jumps to 59%9%
The Guardian revealed that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, despite his friendship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. This scandal severely damaged Starmer's credibility and led to calls for his resignation, causing a significant rise in the market probability for Starmer leaving by December 31, 2025.
Revelations of Mandelson's failed security vetting and Epstein ties rock Starmer's leadership
December 31 plunges to 35%15%
The disclosure that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein triggered a major political crisis for Starmer, leading to calls for his resignation and a drop in market confidence for near-term departure.
Allies rally behind Starmer amid Mandelson‑Epstein scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Senior cabinet ministers publicly defended Starmer after revelations that Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein, was appointed ambassador despite failed security vetting. The show of support reduced market fears of an imminent leadership crisis, pulling the June 30 price down from 51% to 35%.
Revelation that Peter Mandelson failed security vetting before ambassador appointment
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
The Guardian revealed that Mandelson failed security vetting before becoming UK ambassador to the US, contradicting Starmer's claim that full due process was followed. This intensified scrutiny on Starmer's judgment and triggered political fallout including the resignation of the Foreign Office's top civil servant.
Starmer's strategy chief resigns amid crisis
June 30 plunges to 34%17%
Prime Minister Keir Starmer suffered a major blow when his strategy chief resigned amid media allegations, signaling instability within his government and contributing to a sharp drop in market confidence for his continuation through June 30, 2025.
Revelations emerge that Peter Mandelson was appointed US ambassador without full security vetting
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
News broke that Peter Mandelson was appointed as UK ambassador to the US before completing in-depth security vetting, raising serious questions about the appointment process and Starmer's judgment. This triggered a sharp drop in the market's price for Starmer's resignation by June 30, reflecting increased perceived risk to his premiership.
Political crisis escalates as Keir Starmer defends Peter Mandelson amid Epstein links
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
On September 14, 2025, British media reported a political crisis as Prime Minister Keir Starmer defended Peter Mandelson, the UK ambassador to the US, who was embroiled in a scandal over his links to Jeffrey Epstein. This intensified scrutiny on Starmer's leadership and contributed to market price drops reflecting increased risk of his early departure.
Starmer faces leadership crisis over Mandelson Epstein appointment scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Revelations that Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador to the US despite failing security checks and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein sparked a political crisis for Starmer, leading to calls for his resignation and a sharp drop in market confidence for his continued leadership by June 30.
Labour suffers crushing losses in 2025 local elections, sparking leadership doubts
December 31 jumps to 56%6%
Labour's poor performance in the 2025 local elections led to widespread criticism of Starmer's leadership, with opposition parties like Reform UK and the Greens making significant gains. This electoral setback intensified calls within Labour for Starmer to reconsider his position, causing a drop in market confidence for his continued premiership by mid-2026.
Poll shows majority want Keir Starmer to resign amid leadership crisis
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
A poll released mid-September indicated that 54% of the public wanted Starmer to step down, reflecting a crisis of confidence and contributing to the market's initial drop from 51% to 31%. This public discontent increased doubts about Starmer's survival as PM by June 30, 2025.
Keir Starmer faces leadership challenge amid Labour Party unrest
June 30 jumps to 32%6%
Following Labour's poor local election results, Labour MPs openly called for Starmer's resignation, with threats of a leadership challenge. This internal party unrest increased market expectations of Starmer's removal by June 30, 2026, reflected in rising YES probabilities.
Keir Starmer faces growing leadership challenges amid Labour's poor election results
June 30 drops to 38%13%
Following Labour's disastrous local election results and internal party divisions, Starmer's leadership began to be questioned, leading to increased speculation about his potential departure. This contributed to a decline in market prices for earlier exit dates.
Labour suffers poor local election results, sparking leadership doubts
December 31 plunges to 35%15%
Labour's disappointing performance in the 2025 local elections led to growing doubts about Starmer's leadership and increased speculation about his potential resignation. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for Starmer staying beyond mid-2026.
Reports emerge of plans to replace Starmer among Labour MPs
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Media reports indicated internal Labour plans to replace Starmer, reflecting early leadership instability and influencing market prices downward for near-term resignation outcomes.
Keir Starmer considers resignation amid Labour Party crisis
June 30 plunges to 31%20%
Reports emerged that Keir Starmer was contemplating resignation due to a political crisis within the Labour Party, exacerbated by poor local election results and internal divisions. This news initially increased market expectations for his departure by June 30, 2026, causing a surge in the relevant market segment.
Peter Mandelson dismissed as UK Ambassador amid Epstein ties scandal
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Peter Mandelson was dismissed from his ambassadorial post in September 2025 after revelations of his association with Jeffrey Epstein surfaced, triggering political controversy and scrutiny of Prime Minister Starmer's judgment. This event increased market uncertainty about Starmer's tenure, impacting the June 30 outcome price which dropped from 51% to 35%.
Keir Starmer faces mounting internal Labour Party crisis amid poor local election results
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Reports emerged of a political crisis within the Labour Party, with poor local election results leading to calls for Starmer's resignation and cabinet instability. This increased market expectations for Starmer's resignation by June 30, 2026.
Labour suffers poor local election results, sparking leadership doubts
June 30 drops to 38%13%
Following dire polling and poor local election outcomes, Labour MPs began openly questioning Keir Starmer's leadership, initiating early calls for his resignation and reducing confidence in his premiership.
Starmer faces backlash after Labour suffers losses in local elections
December 31 dips to 50%1%
Labour's poor performance in local elections led to calls within the party for Starmer to resign, reflecting declining confidence in his leadership amid economic and policy challenges. This event increased market speculation about Starmer's potential departure by year-end.
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